Werewolf Lite CCCXLVIII: A Sacrifice to Huitzilopochtli

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Rovsea

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I'm not getting good vibes from you either. You've contributed nothing useful and seem way too willing to follow anyone who makes a point, as since he update you've agreed with 3 different people
This is a very good point.
 

Rovsea

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At the moment Luftwafer definitely is looking suspicious to me, but I'll go back and look at all of the thread before I vote today. I feel like we need some more comprehensive analysis. If anybody feels up to doing a colored Vote history, I would really appreciate that as well. It's a great tool for analyzing vote patterns.
 

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Asking someone else to do analysis for you is like asking someone to chew your food for you. Gross unless you are a bird.

Ok, so that metaphor could use some work.

Nah, the metaphor is quite good, could use some fine tuning but the main point is well spent. I'll do it myself, I just thought that it would better if somebody not known as randomly flailing around would do it.

Okay, so what do we have here. We lost the seer which is not amazing but we could still pull this out of the hat. What seems pretty off to me is the bickering from Jackson and Deathnote with a little bit of Luft thrown in there for good measure. It makes a newbie curry so effective that for a moment I wanted to throw myself into it before realising that I would completely ruin the dish with stories that fall flat on their face. I would consider that a Caesarlike event may have caused them to self destruct and get into a big argument on screen though they could've done it in PM's so that feels either foolish and not wolfish or foolish and wolfish. Either way I don't have much to go on. Did the seer come forth with anything to anyone. We might also have to consider those replaced as though they didn't vote the pack still hunted.

I think we should consider the newbie curry, the voters on Wagonlitz who seem a bit off or those who didn't vote, I don't have much to go on but this is what I have gathered.

Point of order, I don't mean anything mean about the newbie curry and would consider myself very green to Forum Werewolf but somewhat decent at normal Werewolf/Mafia. I do consider myself a newbie though.

At the moment Luftwafer definitely is looking suspicious to me, but I'll go back and look at all of the thread before I vote today. I feel like we need some more comprehensive analysis. If anybody feels up to doing a colored Vote history, I would really appreciate that as well. It's a great tool for analyzing vote patterns.

Could you tell me what that means and I'll gladly do it.
 

Jacksonian Missionary

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And I actually like the case on lufty better than deathnote.

Unvote death note

Vote luftwafer
 

Rovsea

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Nah, the metaphor is quite good, could use some fine tuning but the main point is well spent. I'll do it myself, I just thought that it would better if somebody not known as randomly flailing around would do it.

Okay, so what do we have here. We lost the seer which is not amazing but we could still pull this out of the hat. What seems pretty off to me is the bickering from Jackson and Deathnote with a little bit of Luft thrown in there for good measure. It makes a newbie curry so effective that for a moment I wanted to throw myself into it before realising that I would completely ruin the dish with stories that fall flat on their face. I would consider that a Caesarlike event may have caused them to self destruct and get into a big argument on screen though they could've done it in PM's so that feels either foolish and not wolfish or foolish and wolfish. Either way I don't have much to go on. Did the seer come forth with anything to anyone. We might also have to consider those replaced as though they didn't vote the pack still hunted.

I think we should consider the newbie curry, the voters on Wagonlitz who seem a bit off or those who didn't vote, I don't have much to go on but this is what I have gathered.

Point of order, I don't mean anything mean about the newbie curry and would consider myself very green to Forum Werewolf but somewhat decent at normal Werewolf/Mafia. I do consider myself a newbie though.



Could you tell me what that means and I'll gladly do it.
If you go back and look at some other games, especially games with Gen. Skobelev in them, you'll see that at the beginning of each new day he posts the votes records of each previous day, vote switches included, and color coded to show the roles of dead players (red for wolves, green for villagers, cyan for seer, much as is shown in updates). By containing all of this information in one place, it is much easier to see how people have voted, what, if any, inconsistencies there are in player actions, that sort of thing. Used in concert with a close analysis of teh thread, wherein one can also consider context and behavior of players and their different moves, I find it a very helpful tool for finding wolves, or at least knowing where to apply pressure.
 

Rovsea

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@Rovsea is it tie day?
Yes. We have 12 players remaining, assuming worst case scenario (3 villager deaths, although I guess a ridiculous 3 way tie between villagers and a loss is worst case scenario, whatever) we go down to 9 players, 4 wolves, five villagers, so if we want a TIE, today is the last day to do it without a potential loss (unless we manage to catch a wolf).
 

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If you go back and look at some other games, especially games with Gen. Skobelev in them, you'll see that at the beginning of each new day he posts the votes records of each previous day, vote switches included, and color coded to show the roles of dead players (red for wolves, green for villagers, cyan for seer, much as is shown in updates). By containing all of this information in one place, it is much easier to see how people have voted, what, if any, inconsistencies there are in player actions, that sort of thing. Used in concert with a close analysis of teh thread, wherein one can also consider context and behavior of players and their different moves, I find it a very helpful tool for finding wolves, or at least knowing where to apply pressure.

Oh, that is what you meant, I saw it in the previous Big but didn't know what it was called.
Sure, here it is
Votecount (Day 1, Final)
tamius23: 5
Rovsea (#214 IronhideG1 -> #273)
Wagonlitz (#245 IronhideG1 -> #274)
Jacksonian Missionary (#187 CC -> #279)
k-59 (#224 Jackson -> #280)
DeathNoteforCutie (#261 Arkasas -> #266 CC -> #289)

CaesarCzech: 3
Arkasas (#198)
Luftwafer (#248)
tamius23 (#246 Arkasas -> #260)

IronhideG1: 2
Health (#208)
Illiria (#215 Rovsea ->#252)

Aedan777: 2
JermanTK (#213)
CaesarCzech (#228 JacksonianMissionary -> #236)

Jacksonian Missionary: 1
IronhideG1 (#211)

k-59: 1
Spockyt (#221)

Luftwafer: 1
Dexander (#225)

Rovsea: 1
Aedan777 (#205)

Note: CaesarCzech's attempted unvote for Jacksonian Missionary and vote for IronhideG1 (#257) is invalid, as his current vote is for Aedan777, not Jacksonian Missionary. Luftwafer's attempted vote on tamius23 (#285) is invalid, since he voted for CC while failing to unvote him. Jacksonian Missionary's vote on Wombat (#182) is invalid and does not count (GM privilege).

Is everything accurate? Any objections?


Wagonlitz: 5
Rovsea (#325)
Illiria (#349)
k-59 (#382)
Arkasas (#347 Luftwafer -> #396)
DeathNoteforCutie (#321Jacksonian Missionary -> #431)

Arkasas: 2
Luftwafer (#350)
Wagonlitz (#346 Luft -> #425)

JermanTK: 1
Jacksonian Missionary (#365)

DeathNoteforCutie: 1
Health (#340)

Aedan777: 1
JermanTK (Luftwafer #352 -> JermanTK #357 -> #364)

Illiria: 1
Aedan777 (#386)

Rovsea: 1
Spockyt (#395 CC -> #414)

Anybody disagree?

Note: CaesarCzech and Ironhide G1 both did not vote, so they will be replaced. Will contact subs after I post update.
 

Rovsea

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.Wow, I just realized how many new players there are in this game. Namely, Caesar, Jackson, DNC, Luft, Health, Spockyt, and Jerman.

More concerning, none of them have died yet. :p
 

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.Wow, I just realized how many new players there are in this game. Namely, Caesar, Jackson, DNC, Luft, Health, Spockyt, and Jerman.

More concerning, none of them have died yet. :p

We have all bled for the glory of our god, many have sadly bled more.
 

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Well, time to bring in my first batch of analysis. I haven't gotten too far yet, I'm still looking about about half way through Day 1. Interestingly, Luft has been acting fairly consistently, at least as compared from now to the start oft he game. I also find post 211 slightly odd from Ironhide, just assuming that he will be the "#1 target", being maneuvered into that position by the wolves' hunt. I actually commented on how strange it was at the time. Almost makes me want to run him up again. Now, I'll be paying close attention to the CaesarCzech run up, as well as those who joined my late switch to Tamius. I'll then compare what people said Day 1 to what they said Day 2 and see if any inconsistencies stand out.
 

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We have all bled for the glory of our god, many have sadly bled more.
Upon further thought, we should probably focus our attention on newer players. We have a lot of new players left (in fact, the majority) which automatically makes it more likely that somewhere in there a wolf lurks, and I've already seen some odd things in the thread.
 

Rovsea

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Rovsea

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Just looked at post 230. By Caesar's standards, that's actually putting some effort in, and in a way that is potentially beneficial to the village (albeit from a limited perspective, although that is a symptom of being a new player, isn't it?). This makes me less suspect of CC in general.

EDIT: Nevermind, I just read the next 5 posts.
 

Rovsea

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madchemist

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Wrong. It has been defined that it is a bandwagon if somebody gets 3 votes up. E.g. @madchemist can support me in that.

You summoned me for this?

I don't recall that we ever formally defined it, but a 3 vote lead without some sort of outing seems like a not unreasonable definition for it.
 

Rovsea

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You summoned me for this?

I don't recall that we ever formally defined it, but a 3 vote lead without some sort of outing seems like a not unreasonable definition for it.
I'm not sure it's something you can define that simply. I know it when I see it, however.