Lovely. We wasted an entire day with pretty much the worst result possible.
We should go after someone who has been ignored thus far, Audren or Wombat.
I'm not sure whether to be pleased or concerned that you and I seem to have the same thought process. Probably the latter.
Nice of you to make that, but I'd like to see a little more posting than just that and your vote with a one-line explanation. I remember you being pretty much just as silent in the Gondor Lite.
Apparently I'm subbing in. Will do proper reading later.
I've been trying to kill your predecessor for a couple days now, but your presence is sorely needed if you're on the side of good.
So, let's analyze trends...
Day 2 - Probably the most fruitful day to analyze. Early Naut pile on over failed snipe (he didn't respond or vote, else he likely would have lived). Tonka and wagon also pick up votes, creating a possible alternative. Aedan launches shot at Jackson for bandwagoning naut, and he immediately becomes a leading suspect. Tonka effectively forces a late flurry by shifting from Jackson to wagon, creating a 4 way tie. In the confusion, Naut only gets lynched when tonka switches to naut at last second.
Day 3 - Early break towards Jacksonian, mild counterwagon towards tonka which dissipates after exchange between tonka and Jackson.
Have to say... everyone who tonka has voted for has died, and he has been in the running throughout but hasn't died. Something's up here.
Vote Tonkatoy5
Days 1 and 2 are the only real points for analysis. A bandwagon like Day 3 makes it impossible to get anything meaningful out of the voting.
It's good to see this return. Gives me something to bounce a few ideas off of, as well.
1) Tonkatoy5 - 0/3 record on kill votes, has been flirting with death throughout but has never been lynched, the oddball vote late switch on day 2 from jackson to wagon to naut to "see what happens," the scrap with Jacksonian which "outed" jackson. The saying "knave or fool" applies here. Either he's been wildly off all game in his assessments or else is a wolf.
Chance of being a wolf - 65%
Interesting. First thing I notice is that you give a lot more baddie weight than I do to being nearly lynched. I regard that as more or less the opposite, because large numbers of players being willing to vote for a player means that there are more likely wolves among that number. On the other hand, many of the tonka voters are known villagers, with only Sleepyhead and Wagonlitz as unknowns, so perhaps that isn't such a good sign.
I personally feel like tonka's behavior is goodie-ish in some vague way. Take from that what you will, but he doesn't sound like a wolf to me.
2) Deathbywombat - Let's be honest - I don't look good either. I was the second vote on naut and jacksonian (jackson without explanation), and my first day vote was a throwaway. Plus that weird throwaway comment to tonka (post #227) during day 2 makes me look dumb.
Chance of being a wolf - 55% (to the outside observer, 0% in reality)
I'm surprised to see you put yourself that high up.
But then again, I don't exactly think that's wrong, seeing as how all your votes so far are on dead villagers, and you've received only votes from ese (hunted villager) and me (villager).
3) Wagon - He's been bandwagoned twice, but nothing happened either time. Where there's smoke...
Chance of being a wolf - 50%
Run up, not bandwagoned. But OK. Why does that matter?
4) Aedan - Comes out of nowhere, sics the dogs on Jackson, who immediately gets bandwagoned... and turns out innocent. Granted, there was cause to suspect Jackson, but he was the one who lit the fuse. Bad analysis... or assasination?
Chance of being a wolf - 30%
aedan has a good point below, about worng analysis and bad analysis being two different things. Jackson was bandwagoning, and his switch was to the benefit of a different villager. I'm not going to fault someone for creating activity in a reasonable manner.
4b) Audren - First on naut, 3rd on Jackson, cementing a bandwagon in the latter case. Rather suspicious.
Chance of being a wolf - 30%
I concur.
6) madchemist - By all rights, he should be lower on this list. But he was a big consensus-making vote on arky, and he expressed suspicion over naut and jackson without lifting a finger to save them. So far his vaunted analysis has been... rather non-committal.
Chance of being a wolf - 20%
Big vote on Arky, yes, but Naut and Jackson I pretty much labeled as acceptable candidates and left it at that, besides expressing mild concern over bandwagons, which as usual was ignored by almost all the principals involved.
As for my analysis, the best term to describe it would be lazy. But it's difficult to draw conclusions when there's no dead wolf to work with. I can speculate all I want, but right now about all I feel like I can do is make a few educated guesses on who isn't a wolf and vote accordingly.
6b) CC (now Gen Skobelev) - There was an early Turn 1 bandwagon on him that never went anywhere. Has been relatively quiet throughout otherwise (although now that a sub is in, may be more active).
Chance of being a wolf - 20%
Quiet and under much less pressure than is usual for CC. And I've already gone for him twice with little following, which has me wondering.
8) k-59 - The late switch burying Jackson is concerning, and jumped on Jackson after Aedan's accusation. Aside from that, not much on him.
Chance of being a wolf - 15%
Not unreasonable. The guys who follow bad cases tend to be more suspicious to me than the ones who actually make said cases, so I could see him as a wolf.
9) Cliges - Very quiet all game, but aside from day one has refused to follow bandwagoners down the primrose path to idiocy.
Chance of being a wolf - 10%
Pretty typical of Cliges either way. He says so little that I can't get a good read on him.
10) sleepyhead - More or less active throughout the game, and his votes have been generally sound.
Chance of being a wolf - 5%
His votes have been sound? Have they now?
I don't know about his votes being "sound" so much as on players who aren't dead yet (besides Jackson); a lot of analysis on him depends on the allegiances of tonka, Wagon, and myself. And I'm already on record as thinking both of those are villager-ish (despite EURO having voted both), although Wagon hasn't done a whole lot to maintain my early opinion on him. In any event, I think you're ranking him far too low.
No comment to add. I'd found tonka more likely to be the fool, but as suspects turn up clean, he looks worse and worse.
For what it's worth, that's my assessment of him too.
People wanting to lynch someone without success only matters if there was a real point against them to begin with. If there never has been a case against them, then repeatedly running them up is far more likely to cause harm and damage information than catch a wolf. To my knowledge there has not been a good case against wagonlitz, if there has been one, that would be far more important in a case against him than his continued survival.
Basically correct, but it ignores some key points. At the time I brought up Jacksonian as a candidate Nautilu was the players most likely to be lynched, and we know he was a villager too. Tonka was the second candidate at that time, but the case put against him then was predicted on a perceived link between him and madchemist, which seemed a stretch to claim day 2. Moreover I challenge your claim that my case on Jacksonian was "bad analysis". It may not have been correct analysis, but it was not bad; a player putting a fourth vote on a candidate when no other candidate has more than one vote is a textbook bandwagon, and there was no indicator that he was an unlikely wolf. Good analysis can lead to bad results if a villager doesn't act in the best interest of the village, just as bad analysis can lead to correct results by pure luck.
Again, agreed on both points.
Mostly true, however he didn't raise suspicion over Jacksonian being run up, in fact he maintained right up to the deadline that Jacksonian was a likely wolf.
Correct. I approved of the run-up; that comment of his seemed too wolfish to ignore. Sadly, it was wrong.
If anything, I'd say this makes him look worse, since he specifically avoided Jacksonian beforehand. Sure there's the danger of joining a bandwagon, but if you're going to agree with it anyways, the only difference is for fooling people who just look at votecounts. Further, on day 2 he seemed to have tunnel vision on Caesarczech and ignored the other candidates, yet has since totally dropped the matter. This is wolf MC, he's avoiding making an effort to find wolves and keeping his votes under the radar.
And now, you fall woefully short of your usual standards. I don't know if you have a blind spot for thinking I'm evil and just have zero actual ability to read me, or if in this case it's due to malign intent. The fact that you're actively making somewhat of an effort here and the fact that you just did this in the Resistance makes me think the former, but either way you should know better, and you disappoint me.
But anyway, you have several major errors here:
Why, if I was a wolf who therefore would have known Jacksonian was good, would I call unnecessary attention to myself with a post approving of his lynch just minutes prior to deadline, when nobody was in need of further convincing? I know well enough when to shut up as a wolf, and that would have been the ideal time for it.
he specifically avoided Jacksonian beforehand.
I was never even online in the first place to vote him before the bandwagon became stratospheric.
Sure there's the danger of joining a bandwagon, but if you're going to agree with it anyways, the only difference is for fooling people who just look at votecounts.
Honestly, do you think I'm stupid? Throwaway votes typically stand out like a sore thumb in a vote count and are usually accounted more suspicious, not less. If I was a wolf, joining the bandwagon would allow me to blend in just as easily. That vote was more or less symbolic and a statement of my secondary suspicions on an otherwise wasted day. The bandwagon was much too strong for anything I did to matter, even if I had thought Jacksonian was a villager, which I did not.
Further, on day 2 he seemed to have tunnel vision on Caesarczech and ignored the other candidates, yet has since totally dropped the matter.
I didn't vote him for one day, when I've already made my views on him clear and when voting him again would have accomplished nothing. I assure you, I have not dropped my case on him.
This is wolf MC, he's avoiding making an effort to find wolves and keeping his votes under the radar.
I haven't made a great effort thus far, I'll grant you that. But lazy MC =/= wolf MC. And I greatly differ with your statement that my votes are under the radar.
Nothing to say here really. Unlikely wolf if I'm correct about Madchemist.
Which you aren't, so you may want to put a little more thought into that. Just some helpful advice.
The vote switch that occurred 20 hours before deadline??
Maybe on day 2? Makes little sense otherwise.
"Late" as in a switch occurring after most of the original votes were already cast.
Ah. I see, I suppose.
Wanted to make sure I wasn't crazy before going after madchemist. I had either you or madchemist pegged a second likely wolf (next to tonka), but wasn't sure which was more likely. Still think tonka's a surer bet, but your analysis seems logical to me.
That's rather inconsistent with your probability board.
Interesting that you include yourself into this list, near the top even, especially considering you did this very thing in the last big when you were a wolf.
Vote Wombat
Third times the charm.
To be fair, he had himself much lower on the list in that game.
Also, I'd not be too hasty in drawing conclusions from a sample size of one game. If this analysis greatly differs when he's a wolf or a villager, it'll be possible to observe some patterns sooner or later.
Some of us like to keep the same playstyle from game to game. Keeps things simple, and makes me a harder read from game to game. Also, I'd have to be a complete idiot not to acknowledge that some of my actions have been dumb/suspicious this game.
This is sound.
Can't really blame you for the vote, but I'd advise my fellow loyal soccer stars to consider the allegiance of the last 3 people you voted for before jumping on that bandwagon.
(Besides if I am a wolf, I'll probably surrender about 5 turns too early.)
This... is not. Arguing that he's wrong now because he was wrong about his previous three cases is not good logic. And that last sentence sounds off to me somehow.
So, yeah. There's a lot going on here, and I could see myself voting for any of Audren, wombat, CC/Skobie, k-59, Sleepyhead, and Cliges. I still think Wagon's and tonka's behavioral cues are overall positive, and aedan, despite his present wrongness, has otherwise been generally solid in his effort level and in his moves on previous days.
Vote Audren
He's been consistently bandwagonish, has said very little, and he picked Jacksonian prior to his making the statement which got him lynched, which I regard as more suspicious than jumping to him after he made that statement.
.png){kind=avatar}
