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Now do we want to possibly try to tie Corman? Or are we satisfied with Aeden as our sacrifice
Why do I have the sinking suspicion someone with a noose is standing behind me?
Vote Aedan
Vote Aedan
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VOTECOUNT (23 HOURS REMAINING)
Aedan: 8
Arkasas [455]
Jackson [457]
Madchemist [460]
Tonkatoy [461]
Ironhide [462]
EURO [465]
Wombat [466]
Corman [467]
Unvoted: 4
CaesarCzech
Aedan
K-59
Rovsea
Now I'm off to play X-Com, don't do anything crazy.
Aedan: 8
Arkasas [455]
Jackson [457]
Madchemist [460]
Tonkatoy [461]
Ironhide [462]
EURO [465]
Wombat [466]
Corman [467]
Unvoted: 4
CaesarCzech
Aedan
K-59
Rovsea
Now I'm off to play X-Com, don't do anything crazy.
But wouldn't the act of defending myself in itself make me look suspicious
That's true. Unfortunately (as we've seen from RB33) staying silent also makes one look suspicious. It's very hard to stop looking suspicious once accused. Usually the best ways are earning goodie points through smart voting decisions
It depends on whether you can offer intelligent reasons for your defense. Merely saying "I am not a wolf" without any backup is stupid and suicidal. Giving intelligent reasons in response to your detractors (e.g., RB33, although a villager, was merely defending himself stubbornly, so I voted to lynch him in good faith) and/or possible alternatives for more likely candidates for wolfiness is a valid defense that will help your cause.
Its not that simple, though. I can give perfectly reasonable explanations and people will still lynch me anyway. Being defensive sadly is bad for this game. But being silent is even worse.
So really the only way to make a successful defense to not be defensive, and simply contribute to the discussion every couple of pages
Potential Wolf Big Board
Hello all. The time has come to analyze the situation and gauge the likelihood of who is and isn't a wolf.
1) Aedan777
He outed himself. Kill him.
Chance of being a wolf - 100%.
2) Corman50
The vote switch on day 1 from Aedan to Jacksonian Missionary looks suspicious in retrospect (and the explanation was bizarre), and he then switched to RB33 in a bandwagon. Of course, he is brand new and doesn't really know what he is doing, so we can possibly chalk his strange voting habits up to lack of experience. Still, though...
Chance of being a wolf - 70%
3) Rosvea
See post #347 from madchemist for details. (can't quote for some reason) This is weird to me, also.
Chance of being a wolf - 50%
4) CaesarCzech
The suggestion to scan two people WHO THE SEER ALREADY REVEALED HIMSELF TO is incredibly foolish. Why on earth would you scan people you trusted enough to reveal your own identity to - ESPECIALLY after a night has passed and the seer was still alive?
Stupidity kills in this game. I don't know if he's a wolf, but at best he's deadweight.
On the plus side, he voted for Aedan and locked onto him early. Could be a false flag, though.
Chance of being a wolf - 30%
5) Jacksonian Missionary
The comment as to why the wolves hunted Panzer (post #118) still rankles. Probably nothing... but still worth keeping half an eye on.
He's also on Corman's case in trying to force a double vote - could turn out worth keeping an eye on if we vote and find Corman50 is indeed a sheep.
Chance of being a wolf - 20%
6) Deathbywombat
Let's be honest - I presented a false possibility to you all re: the seer being a false flag as an alternative to the correct answer, causing momentary confusion. That said, my analysis was predicated on an assumption that whoever the seer is had an IQ above room temperature, which was clearly not the case. My apologies.
My analysis otherwise has been on point, I believe. Of course, if my analysis of Corman and/or Caesar is false, I rise much higher on this list.
Chance of being a wolf - 10% (to an outside observer, 0% in reality).
7) madchemist
He was on the lynch RB33 wagon at the start, and was instrumental in keeping that going. Aside from that, generally sound analysis. If Rosvea is not a wolf, keep an eye on him.
Chance of being a wolf - 10%
I don't really have enough data on Arkasas, Euro, k-59 and Ironhide G1 to make a proper judgment, but none of them have shown wolf tendencies that I can see as of yet.
12) Tonkatoy5
He has clearly been vindicated by the vote and by the death of the other two members of the "Justice League."
Chance of being a wolf - 0%.
Hello all. The time has come to analyze the situation and gauge the likelihood of who is and isn't a wolf.
1) Aedan777
He outed himself. Kill him.
Chance of being a wolf - 100%.
2) Corman50
The vote switch on day 1 from Aedan to Jacksonian Missionary looks suspicious in retrospect (and the explanation was bizarre), and he then switched to RB33 in a bandwagon. Of course, he is brand new and doesn't really know what he is doing, so we can possibly chalk his strange voting habits up to lack of experience. Still, though...
Chance of being a wolf - 70%
3) Rosvea
See post #347 from madchemist for details. (can't quote for some reason) This is weird to me, also.
Chance of being a wolf - 50%
4) CaesarCzech
The suggestion to scan two people WHO THE SEER ALREADY REVEALED HIMSELF TO is incredibly foolish. Why on earth would you scan people you trusted enough to reveal your own identity to - ESPECIALLY after a night has passed and the seer was still alive?
Stupidity kills in this game. I don't know if he's a wolf, but at best he's deadweight.
On the plus side, he voted for Aedan and locked onto him early. Could be a false flag, though.
Chance of being a wolf - 30%
5) Jacksonian Missionary
The comment as to why the wolves hunted Panzer (post #118) still rankles. Probably nothing... but still worth keeping half an eye on.
He's also on Corman's case in trying to force a double vote - could turn out worth keeping an eye on if we vote and find Corman50 is indeed a sheep.
Chance of being a wolf - 20%
6) Deathbywombat
Let's be honest - I presented a false possibility to you all re: the seer being a false flag as an alternative to the correct answer, causing momentary confusion. That said, my analysis was predicated on an assumption that whoever the seer is had an IQ above room temperature, which was clearly not the case. My apologies.
My analysis otherwise has been on point, I believe. Of course, if my analysis of Corman and/or Caesar is false, I rise much higher on this list.
Chance of being a wolf - 10% (to an outside observer, 0% in reality).
7) madchemist
He was on the lynch RB33 wagon at the start, and was instrumental in keeping that going. Aside from that, generally sound analysis. If Rosvea is not a wolf, keep an eye on him.
Chance of being a wolf - 10%
I don't really have enough data on Arkasas, Euro, k-59 and Ironhide G1 to make a proper judgment, but none of them have shown wolf tendencies that I can see as of yet.
12) Tonkatoy5
He has clearly been vindicated by the vote and by the death of the other two members of the "Justice League."
Chance of being a wolf - 0%.
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You have to have an argument against you to defend against it. At the moment, all there is is an idiot flailing his arms wildly because he's got a special potato that talks to him.
His voting record is argument enough. Also please don't be a jealous wolf just because I wouldn't let you into our special club, I wanted too but the seer doesn't like you.
Only a few people would intentionally keep me out of the loop. Until I get scanned, or the seer dies, I'll keep trying.