Time to do some public analysis, rather than keep it private or in PMs.
Vote Rovsea.
Wolf last game, and as this game seems to become some spinoff of Matador, I will see him as a wolf once more
An unnecessary move for a wolf, but not an impossible one.
Who would hunt Arkasas... It's a bit of an odd choice I think. Strikes me as a random roll.
I'm going to guess: Hax (I am voting for him afterall). Dutchguy (Trying to throw suspicion on Rovsea under such a lame pretense), Rovsea (for working with his packmate Dutchguy to cast himself in an innocent lite through the Gambler's Fallacy), and... Falc, cause why not.
2/4 at least is a good start. We should ask Cymsdale more often.
Vote Rovsea
my algorithm demands it.
This is the most unclearing vote on a wolf who gets lynched possible, but it shouldn't be taken as damning either.
Very. I don't think I mind very much.
That sounds about right.
Oh hey, look. I was wondering when this would start.
:rofl:
Can we please get a GM post saying *exactly* how much time until deadline that post was made at? Because 6:30 without a timezone could be anywhen. Really.
I have no idea what timezone he's using.
You don't say.
:rofl:
Well, I guess that the rumor that deadline was at 00:30 CET (european time) was correct.
Better split this post, this game is getting interesting from the word 'go' apparently.
I generally believe players who say they've missed game start by not getting a role PM as a villager. randakar's posts have pretty consistently shown he's replying as he reads things, and this was made a long time after deadline... although European night time plays a part there.
Maybe the GM's policy to not send villagers PM's has something to do with it.
Vote Rovsea
First day, third voter rule. As usual.
Nice to see people willingly sacrificing themselves to that
I can think of a few things ..
That's wat marty did last game I take it?
Why not is always a good reason for a vote. *nods*
Hey, actual pressure. Hmm. Better get online and do something. Oh wait..
That's what, 4 votes already? (Counting mine, but I really can't help that).
That's Rcism!
Why?
Ok. Really late night deadline I can't possibly attend, real life making some interesting turns on me, and a dead seer night 0. This will be entertaining
It doesn't help that his early vote on Rovsea is just as meaningless, and he's quick to get elsewhere.
Also he had said in that same post that the deadline would be 21.00 GMT (two hours before Swedish midnight).
And the elves are immortal but can tire of the world or be killed. Werewolf attack obviously counts as killing...
Actually it also makes things much, much harder. I can't be online, either, so I think the deadline shenanigans will be cut down considerably as only new world population will be participating.
Read Silmarillion and you will. It's good.
(yeah, no line by line post to address all things said. I noticed in last game that people don't even read them as manifested in the villager voting record. Perhaps later...)
Anyways. I will
vote Rovsea
as there's already plenty of candidates (though as if Randy gets whacked on day 1...) and come coalescing would be nice. And there's quite a lot in his posting style that remind me of his wolf play. Out of the current candidates I'd prefer him and GuG the most.
I can't speak for the other two that are voting you but I'm not voting you because you are active. I'm voting you because your activity/behaviour reminds me very much of your wolf play, coupled with a comment or two that piqued my interest, not because you are active. But I really hope it won't deter you from being active, something that everybody should strive for.
Anyone who proposes lynching Skobelev is clinically insane, for these and many other posts he's made through the thread. It's part of why I made the reasonable choice to go with Wagonlitz this morning. I could tell you in great detail why I went for him if you want, and why it wasn't a hot air case as he suggested, but it's a waste of time now he's clear the old fashioned way. I'd rather not spend time showing why lynching me is insane, when I could instead be killing the last two wolves.
No you haven't, thanks!
Kind words will always be rewarded.
Unvote randakar
Vote GreatUberGeek
Okay time to be serious. The League of Elves must arise!
GreatUberGeek was a serious contender to save Rovsea, that wolves backed. I have no interest in lynching him.
Well I don't want one of the experienced players to be lynched this early. I like active games ya know.
Do you want me to switch my vote? :ninja:
Lovely play here, making it seem like getting him to switch his vote - potentially on to his packmate - would be wolfish.
Yes, my PM box is full, but I am a villager.
Unvote DutchGuy
Vote Rovsea
Self-preservation, and with a seer dead I'm not so sure that a three-way tie is good for the village.
GUG is only worth investigating in that it shows why you needn't have bothered.
Why do you have full inbox?
See also teh wolves trying to get Wagonlitz's dodgy case into the headlights. It worked to frame Wagonlitz, but it backfires in clearing GUG given he wasn't lynched at the time.
I think a tie is better,Also,I do not wish to be wrongly accused for being part of a villager bandwagon if he turns out to be a villager.
Unvote Rovsea vote GuG
Why do you have to be like this DutchGuy?
You were at that moment one of six persons who voted Rovsea. Why would we accuse you more than the other players?
You never answered why your inbox was full. Could you please do that?
Yup smells nooby wolf. You wanna switch?
I have contacted j-L and asked him if he can fix the typo located in the name of this thread.
Unvote GUG
Vote DutchGuy
Let's see what happens. Won't be for much long online, must sleep soon.
Be ever so glad your greatest inquisitor was a wolf, and that I don't buy it as a sell out. It could be, it would be exactly what I'd do, but it doesn't feel right from Hax.
I am kinda busy but I will throw my vote with the guy with the full PM(good case for d1, I guess)
Also tie!
Vote GreatUberGeek
alxeu, you better do some really hard work quick smart.
Unvote GuG vote Cymsdale
I leave, the question why i left GuG up to you guys.
I don't think this was ever answered? It wasn't really protecting you, other than in diluting the vote. An interesting move if you are in fact a wolf, but pretty needless if you were a villager. If you are a goodie, you better learn to sharpen up your game quick, or face a similar fate to Gorganslayer before long. Or worse, become the new reis. Idiocy is not a strategy with long term rewards.
Screw it, self preservation.
Unvote Randakar, Vote GreatUberGeek
Yes, I know, a TIE. I'm confident that the village will find me, a villager (apparently Aedan was ruffled that I didn't announce this right out the gates
), to be a poor lynch before deadline passes.
I think this was a genuine move, and he took so long because he didn't want to be moving in concert with Hax. By this point Hax was bringing attention elsewhere, so he could try something to save himself.
That's actually the exact question I had on my mind yesterday - but didn't, because I was too busy watching youtube stuff.
Dunno. My dedication to werewolf isn't exactly great right now. Too much to do, to many girls to date. Did you know my second girlfriend is considering playing a Lite?
One thing I really like about werewolf these days is that there are *other* people willing to stand up and ask the questions that need to be asked.
Ok, how do you check somebodies PM box without actually sending them PM's? Because I'm pretty sure you didn't send me anything, and my box is pretty empty and has been for days.
Right.
Well, for what it's worth, GuG feels villagery from where I'm sitting right now too (kinding hoping he hasn't been lynched - haven't read the update yet).
Yeah, it's not much. Day 1 is often like that.
Hmm. Madchemist might be a wolf, though.
Odd, isn't it?
Then again I don't quite see a xarkwolf be that blatant.
That would be a stretch, thanks to smartphones.
Though I admit that I have a hell of a better shot at reading her allegiance than you guys. Then again - I try not to use that. On one level it would be like cheating, and on another it would make the game a lot less fun for both of us.
This.
Yes.
Interesting vote there.
Quoted for truth.
Also, we really should get AOK. 11 in here. You'll like him.
If he isn't, we may have another one right here.
Good question.
Well, for what it's worth, if he's a wolf that move makes a bit more sense. ;-)
Wow. Ok. Well done, skobie!
Heh, I have that problem too you know. I'm much better at spotting villagers than wolves, for that very reason.
I don't buy it.
That DG push definitely needs looking at from where I'm sitting. Wolves would probably jump at an opportunity like that.
Damn. I have only just read up and I am already feeling this itch to reread everything involving rovsea yesterday. Which was basically everything ..
Too obvious, Aedan. Do you think he's the type for that kind of blatant defending? I don't.
Vote #4, and damn holy bandwagon batman.
Vote dutchguy
Can somebody look at his vote history? I'm lazy that way.
Definitely. And whoever it was was probably unlikely to move off, too. Unless it was likely to actually save Rovsea.
One of the reasons I do not consider madchemist in the clear at all.
I forget why I quoted this one. Possibly it needs the context of what he was replying to, or was just to support the idea he does reply in real time? Not particularly important, I suppose.
My vote on GuG was, as I said, to tie him and rovsea since I thought that the two of them had decent(if meta) cases for d1.obiously it din't work out, what with some people suddenly switching to DG(Aedan and Gorgan, I think).
Now, as for Gorgan defending Rovsea, it seems too stupid and obivous for a wolf to do, or it could be a newbie mistake, who knows, considering he went as far as joining the dg push close to the deadline. I can't blame those who are voting him.
I still think the dg push was an obvious attempt to save rovsea, but I have to reread some more before I decide on to to vote on.
Also, quoting you on ipad is not easy.
Trite. You have some serious work to do alxeu.
From my point of view, the push on dg at the last minute me think he isn't a wolf( or at least not the best candidate right now) since I don't think the wolfs would try to save rovsea by voting another packmate.
Gorgan is on the middle for me, I haven't play WW for long, but I don't think its normal to defend someone so hard on d1
, a day without much evidence or analysis on anyone. But on the other hand, I know what it feels like to make silly newbie mistakes, so I can't decide if he is a newbie villager or a newbie wolf.
So that means our posts will actually count here? yes! finally.
All he ever gets to is a rehash of the same.
Gorganslayer is the obvious candidate here, I think. To the point where I might be tunnelvisioning on him a little bit. I'll have to give the thread a fresh look when I get off owrk in a couple of hours. Should have more than enough time to make a better call before deadline.
This is a fairly basic wolf ploy, defending the doomed villager. Unfortunately it's also true. And in his favour, we did get the second look later, when it's classic wolf play to tantalise.
Book of Hax
Hax wolfdar analysis(tm)
More baddie than goodie:
madchemist - even if he put the last nail in Rovsea's coffin so was that move at least for me quite strange
GreatÜberGeek - was one of the contesters for day 1 but got quite quickly removed from 'danger'
Wagonlitz - his pushing for GuG was a bit strange after knowing the result of yesterdays lynch
GorganSlayer - defending Rovsea but he did it a bit too much. goody/baddie newb mistake?
Neutral:
Capt Kiwi - hard to read, don't know to be honest
Falc - flying under the radar
aedan777 - flying under the radar
JohnKjeken - flying under the radar
DutchGuy - with the result from yesterdays lynch I would say goodie but his late vote switch was and still is for me a strange move
Cymsdale - gives me both goodie and baddie vibes. trying to lead us, both good and bad aspects in that. + his votes on me, a vote on me is a vote against Angband!
Leondark - flying under the radar. don't know why he got some votes today.
More goodie than baddie:
Gen Skobelev - plays with his normal style
randakar - the typical randy-style, give me goodie vibes
As of today, Hax's suspect list is laughably bad. Likewise Skobelev. So is randakar the one curve ball he hid in there? Meh.
After rereading this at home, I still think Gorganslayer is by far the most likely wolf out of the raised suspects. I don't really think putting my vote on him will accomplish anything right now though. I'd rather use it to draw attention to good targets for tomorrow. I'll try and note down my thoughts on other players as well.
Aedan777: He doesn't have any votes, I think, but he stood out to me as the second best candidate for a few pages. He made a questionable vote yesterday then referred to a chat session with madchemist that supposedly made him more villager-y (Is there a better word to use here?). Madchemist responded that this had indeed transpired but neither could produce chatlogs. I'm inclined to pin madchemist as a villager and leave aedan777 alone for now.
Wagonlitz: He's being run up because he led the push on GuG yesterday, I think? I agree it might be suspicious but it's in line with what I (in my limited experience, i admit) expect from him. not really a good candidate based on what has happened so far.
Falc: Pushed by randakar for a poor vote and for being a zombie. Gen. Skobelev then votes him as well. He has answered them a few posts above this one. Doesn't scream wolf to me, but then my wolfdar isn't very reliable.
Leondark: Newbie, zombie. I'm loath to vote him without something more substantial. He's a strictly worse lynch than gorganslayer I think.
Gen. Skobelev: This one is intriguing. I agree that he made a very strange choice of words when discussing lynching gorganslayer. Not our lynch for today, but I don't mind lettting him feel the heat a little.
vote Gen. Skobelev
Odd logic, weird vote, but nice to see an attempt at something when a wolf could easily have taken that day off courtesy of Gorganslayer.
Vote GreatÜbergGeek
Placeholder for now. Still a interesting suspect if you ask me.
Güg who do you find suspecious? Have you maybe spotted something strange?
GUG seems beyond clear.
Johnkjeken wasn't really on my radar. I mean, yeah, he put his vote there at the start with essentially no reason, but there's no real reason to suspect him either.
Vote Hax
I like how he plays but I don't really have anything better. I don't feel like voting falc again (though I still don't have a lot on him) and Hax hasn't been a serious contestant yet, unlike some.
This is an interesting one. On the one hand randakar finally does something useful... the other hand I'll get to later.
vote hax
Tie
I'll reread then make a post summarizing my impressions. Don't hold your breath though, I feel even more lost than yesterday.
This is in your favour, mostly.
Book of Hax
Hax wolfdar analysis(tm)
More baddie than goodie:
madchemist - even if he put the last nail in Rovsea's coffin so was that move at least for me quite strange
GreatÜberGeek - was one of the contesters for day 1 but got quite quickly removed from 'danger', full inbox on day 1
Neutral:
Capt Kiwi - hard to read, don't know to be honest
Falc - flying under the radar
aedan777 - flying under the radar
JohnKjeken - flying under the radar, gives me goodie vibes
Wagonlitz - his pushing for GuG was a bit strange after knowing the result of yesterday's lynch
DutchGuy - with the result from yesterdays lynch I would say goodie but his late vote switch was and still is for me a strange move
Leondark - flying under the radar.
Gen Skobelev - plays with his normal style but I don't like his pushing of lynching me.
More goodie than baddie:
randakar - the typical randy-style, gives me goodie vibes
I think this helps randakar, that Hax was still publicly buddying. Hax trying to steer an innocent and uncertain randakar into helping his friend is more likely than undercutting an alibi by trying to make him look good.
Of the five voting Wagonlitz the villager, two are dead and one is DG, the close-to-cleared. You and GuG are the last two. That merits investigation, I think.
I said I'd return to the other hand. That's only true if you look at a very superficial reading of the thread, painfully so. "Look at those two voting the villager, they must be wolves!". It ignores several key issues: Villagers don't know who the wolves are, so have to get it wrong sometimes. Wagonlitz was actually a pretty solid case. Likewise lynching Hax is not particularly impressive, he had the attention of village leaders like Skobelev and randakar - that was the opportune moment for a sell out. Contrast Rovsea, day one with the seer dead, plenty of easy to sell alternatives.
There's also the no voter issue. If alxeu/Leondark is a wolf, the pack simply didn't have much of a voting block to play with yesterday. It looked like Wagonlitz was heading to the gallows on his lonesome yesterday, so why blow cover and switch? Worse case scenario is something that would look like an alibi vote. At a superficial level. And when there are so many clear looking villagers, as a wolf you feel the need to look clear too quick smart. I should well know, there was a Baldur's Gate themed no-seer game some way back where I fell into that trap as a wolf. I would go as far as to say wolves on Hax are
more likely than on Wagonlitz. Especially if it really is just me and GUG left of them, and I'm confident in GUG right now.
So
Vote alxeu/Leondark
One part CAWZ, one part his sole meaningful vote helped a wolf, one part the trite nature of his voting, one part belief the wolf pack was undermanned yesterday.
