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happycats517

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Actually I'll continue to contribute now. Post counts for living players:

marty99: 125 (most active player award)
2kNikk: 100
Brovahkiin: 41
Kaetje: 26
happycats: 23 (subbed in for Skobie, near end of day 3)
Xarkan: 17
Suirantes: 16

My analysis on each player:

Marty: Lynched Wagon, very active, contributes constantly. One of my most cleared players. My only reservation up until now was his vote record, but that has been fixed.

2kNikk: Put a key vote on madchemist and put a vote on Wagon. My other most cleared player

Brovahkiin: Has acted suspicious, but was willing to die yesterday and kept his vote on Wagon when he could've sniped Xarkan. Only reason he wouldn't have tried that was if we somehow rolled up all three wolves yesterday, which I doubt. Decent post count, but I feel like a decent amount of those posts are him having to defend himself or being prompted to explain votes, although I can't really confirm that. All in all, there's better candidates. Sorry for still wanting to look at him earlier, wasn't thinking and I missed some stuff because my phone sucks.

Kaetje: Bad voting record. Only non-cleared players she has put votes on were marty (who I've already noted is someone who I consider to be about as close to cleared as one can be without a seer right now) and bro who is leaning to be a bad lynch right now. Also hasn't been active. Only things I remember seeing from her were votes, her defending herself, and reasons (excuses?) for being inactive. Have not seen much analysis from her at all. Also maybe I'm reading too much into this but post 947, she quoted Jonti saying he wouldn't make a three way tie and sounded sad about it. Was she maybe hoping to tie two villagers with Wagon to improve her chances of winning as a wolf? Even with losing Wagon the three way tie plus hunt would have brought us down to 5 players, two of whom would be wolves, which gives the wolves fair odds of winning if the village messes up.

Happycats/Skobie: Skobie had a good amount of activity when he was on (79 posts over 3 days) with a good amount of analysis and conversation and was also one of the first to move on madchemist at EURO's urging, which helps clear me somewhat. Since I've been on I'd like to think that I've been contributing as well as I can with discussion and analysis although I honestly haven't done much to clear myself.

Xarkan: Has been quiet, but that seems to be his MO, at least recently. Put the final vote on Wagon yesterday. There's a chance this could have been to sacrifice Wagon to stop both of them from being lynched, but I'm not convinced. The fact that Wagon was willing to put a vote down on him yesterday goes a long way to helping him out.

Suirantes: Super quiet. Almost nonexistent. Says it's due to school, but then he really should have asked for a sub. Ironically says inactives are the best targets and then votes brovahkiin, someone with twice the number of posts than him. Bad voting record over all. Yes MC put a vote on him day 1, but he was never in any real danger and it's a useful alibi vote.

Actually I concur with Xarkan. Sui and Kaetje are our best targets. Wait, guys. Maybe I'm looking too hard for something but look back at day 3.

792 to 801. Bro puts pressure on Kaetje and puts her and Ithvan into a 2-2 tie in 792. Five posts later Wagon responds and puts Ithvan ahead. Sui comes in just two posts later to put Ithvan even further ahead as Ithvan also swings to Kaetje soon after. It could be Wagon and Sui trying to protect Kaetje their packmate or it could be nothing. The biggest hole in this theory is that this all occurred seven hours before deadline, which makes it doubtful that the wolves were that worried about the votes as to do something so blatant. My only counter to this hole is that EURO's insistence on killing Ithvan gave them a good enough cover that they could get away with it. Posts below for reference:

well then
Unvote Xarkan Vote Kaetje

I just took a look on what EURO did before last deadline.

Votes Ithvan



Wants Nikk to vote Ithvan


Wants people to vote Ithvan.


With 9 minutes to go he appears to want a threeway.


Rovsea switches to Nikk.


EURO is not happy about that.


Rovsea goes to Ithvan.


EURO still contemplates a threeway and wants to know the count.


With less than three minutes left Rovsea posts this count.


EURO then switches from Ithvan to Brovahkiin.



EURO seemed rather keen on having Ithvan lynched and he only switched to Brovahkiin when it seemed clear that either only Rovsea or Rovsea and Brovahkiin would be lynched; that Rovsea's count was faulty doesn't matter since it was the first count in hours.

Vote Ithvan


Count:

Ithvan: 3
jonti-h [751]
Kaetje [772]
Wagonlitz [797]

Xarkan: 2
Gen. Skobelev [749]
Ithvan [785 Brovahkiin -> 789]

Kaetje: 2
2kNikk [725 kai -> 757]
brovahkiin [703 Ithvan -> 788 Xarkan -> 792]

Brovahkiin: 1
Xarkan [779]

Suirantes: 1
kaisersohaib [764 Skobie -> 768 unvote -> 778]

Not voted: 2
marty99 []
Suirantes []

Nikk voted Kaetje in 755, but he was already voting kai

vote Ithvan

As jonti-h said, EURO really did seem to want him lynched.

Unvote Xarkan, vote Kaetje

I'm not a RINO you people!

(Although interestingly, one of my flatmates this year is called Rhino.)

EDITS: "I've honestly haven't". Ewwwww. Also changed Sui's analysis a little. When I said he "put a vote on Brovahkiin with twice the amount of votes than him", I meant "twice the amount of posts than him". Which makes a difference. Don't post while tired, folks.
 
Last edited:

2kNikk

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I think it is 2 to 5 so a tie would be bad news if we hit two goodies. I again advocate a single lynch but bow to Marty's math on this. Still very new to the world of TIE
 

EUROO7

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EotJ5Lc.jpg
 

happycats517

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I think it is 2 to 5 so a tie would be bad news if we hit two goodies. I again advocate a single lynch but bow to Marty's math on this. Still very new to the world of TIE

Well if we have a tie and hit two goodies then we're down to 2 to 3. Wolves will hunt tonight and get a kill, unless they're silly enough not to hunt, bringing it to 2 to 2. We hit parity. Also, to get a TIE with those numbers would require cooperation from the wolves. (5 villagers would go 3-2, one of the wolves would have to put a vote on the 2 vote candidate and the other would have to throw their vote away or villagers go 2-2-1, the wolves can then easily just run up whichever candidate they want.) So I would say a TIE is a no go unless marty has a cunning plan.
 

2kNikk

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Well if we have a tie and hit two goodies then we're down to 2 to 3. Wolves will hunt tonight and get a kill, unless they're silly enough not to hunt, bringing it to 2 to 2. We hit parity. Also, to get a TIE with those numbers would require cooperation from the wolves. (5 villagers would go 3-2, one of the wolves would have to put a vote on the 2 vote candidate and the other would have to throw their vote away or villagers go 2-2-1, the wolves can then easily just run up whichever candidate they want.) So I would say a TIE is a no go unless marty has a cunning plan.

That ... was obvious. I feel dumb.
 

happycats517

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To be fair I was Strait Edge until 25 so yeah...

Ah, I really can't judge you too hard. My experience with alcohol so far has been accidental (when you go to a top ten party school, just assume that every drink offered at a party is alcoholic). I'm usually the sober friend though.
 

happycats517

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That ... was obvious. I feel dumb.

Don't sweat it. Mistakes happen. I almost wanted to lynch bro today after he accepted being lynched yesterday to help the village.

Speaking of which though, so would you agree that Sui and Kaetje are our best targets now?
 

marty99

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More analysis to come tomorrow. (Actually, I ended up deleting my notes because my friend wanted to play house music from my laptop - only my notes on Wagonlitz have survived, in somewhat deleterious form) But...


Kaetje, Xarkan, Suirantes.


That's where preliminary efforts should be focused, IMHO.
 

2kNikk

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Don't sweat it. Mistakes happen. I almost wanted to lynch bro today after he accepted being lynched yesterday to help the village.

Speaking of which though, so would you agree that Sui and Kaetje are our best targets now?

Yes, although Kaet moreso because of her coyness when I voted her two days ago.
 

Arkasas

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Yes, although Kaet moreso because of her coyness when I voted her two days ago.

Bah. She was probably flirting with you.

... randy, please don't hurt me.
 

marty99

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Yeah, forget about Xarkan for the moment. Kaetje and Suirantes, until I find an instance that makes them unlikely in a pack together, are the two only candidates most likely. Until then...I can't really top happycats analysis, and 2kNikk's instinct right now. They'll take it from here.
 

Arkasas

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GM influencing game and not giving a single fuck.
SvqrC00.gif

Hack GM gleefully admits to his own Hackness.

Anyway, randy is going to hurt you now. Isn't that right, randy?
 

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Awww I got taken out of EUR007's sig..

And he replaced you with himself. Ah well, we always knew he was somewhat narcissistic. I mean, who even uses that gmail account. Probably, Euro just emails himself as he is the only player of note right now. :p
 

LatinKaiser

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And he replaced you with himself. Ah well, we always knew he was somewhat narcissistic. I mean, who even uses that gmail account. Probably, Euro just emails himself as he is the only player of note right now. :p

Dear EUROO7,
It is I, EUROO7. I am quite pleased with your newb-herding and recent performance in WW. WW is still dead, though. Never forget this! Always beware of Olaus Petrus and the People's Justice League. And make sure that Arkansas and madchemist don't get too big for their newb breeches. Farewell, EUROO7.
May Fear Be Upon You,
EUROO7