Werewolf Lite CCCLXXXII: Ponies!

[jeray2000]

Day 2

There was much drunkenness last night, and that largely determined the direction of the conversation today. Some of you suggested lynching the one who was complaining about his blown up mailbox(could the changelings be blowing up mailboxes now!?), but most converged on a doctor. You hanged him up, but it turned out he really was a pony.


Night 2

Another one of your friends has been killed in the night! You were all said to see that Rov was drained of Love.

Dr. Livingstone the pony was lynched

Rovsea the pony was hunted

 

[Wagonlitz]

@Clophiroth want to explain yourself?

Vote Clophiroth

 

[aedan777]

Not sure how much stock I put in the Livingstone case. It is, IIRC, the only case aside from the case on me though. If we are to follow Livingstone's argument then both him and Claude are suspicious, as relayed by johho, though, and Claude is 2 down from Livingstone. On the other hand Livingstone might have intoxicatedly crovaxed, but as mentioned I'm not sure how much stock to put in that case---i.e. I'm not terribly convinced of it.

So I roll with the having voted a known goodie one and Claude has less votes than Livingstone.
Vote Claude

So true; but how is it in any way a sign against that player either though? After all a goodie will have absolutely no way of knowing who's a goodie and who isn't, so especially on the first day goodies actually are expected to mainly vote goodies, statistically, just because there's three times the amount of goodies as baddies.

In fact I have long held it suspicious when people try to make cases against others, where the cases solely are that they voted a goodie. Later in the game if they only voted goodies, especially in races with a goodie and a baddie, it starts becoming suspicious. But after day 1 it's just statistical variance.

And non voters are shifty indeed, since they had over 24 hours to vote and it was clearly stated that yesterday was day 1 and not day 0. I would be willing to look at a Rovs switch, though for obvious reasons I want several people willing to it before committing to it. (I'm in the running too, after all.)

Wagonlitz made these two posts with only a little over 10 minutes between them. In the first he votes Claude for having voted a goodie day 1. Then he says that he finds it suspicious when people make cases on others for having voted a goodie. Which is exactly what Wagonlitz just did. These posts are very contradictory, and far more likely to occur if Wagonlitz is a baddie trying to find scapegoats to lynch, rather than a villager looking for wolves.

Vote Wagonlitz

 

[Wagonlitz]

Wagonlitz made these two posts with only a little over 10 minutes between them. In the first he votes Claude for having voted a goodie day 1. Then he says that he finds it suspicious when people make cases on others for having voted a goodie. Which is exactly what Wagonlitz just did. These posts are very contradictory, and far more likely to occur if Wagonlitz is a baddie trying to find scapegoats to lynch, rather than a villager looking for wolves.

Vote Wagonlitz

I clearly stated that I didn't find any of the cases good. Note how I had 2 votes, just like Claude, when I voted so voting Claude also was a bit ot self preservation. Though obviously I didn't say it at the time since I saw no need to bring attention to myself thereby risking to be further run up.

 

[EUROO7]

If I had been online, I would have switched my vote to Livingstone, which goes to show how inept I am.

Vote Wagonlitz

Until he provides a good alternative. Remember noob: the best defense is offense.

 

[De Chatillôn]

Seems that some baddies were trying to save Claude really hard here. Seems Wagon has some attention already so I'm with Claude.

Vote Claude

 

[jeray2000]

Vote Count ~ 21 Hours to Deadline
Wagonlitz - 2
aedan777[203]
EUROO7[205]

Clophiroth - 1
Wagonlitz [202]

Claude LC - 1
De Chatillon [206]

Not Voted
A lot of people

 

[Jacksonian Missionary]

Not so new he even has the nickname of "Later Claude". Not bad Livingstone as a candidate, but I don't want him as the only runner here.

Vote Claude.

Seems that some baddies were trying to save Claude really hard here. Seems Wagon has some attention already so I'm with Claude.

Vote Claude

Frankly terrible reasoning for voting Claude, he's pretty well established as someone who comes on near the deadline to cast his vote, and breaking a tie on day 1 is pretty standard I'd say. Especially since we didn't have a whole lot of reason to tie. And you are persistent with a fairly lazy vote today on Claude as well, so some baddie points to De Chat for tunneling. He hasn't even discussed anyone else this whole game.

I've been really busy, and didn't realize that the game had started.

Vote Dr. Livingstone

Aedan is always a goodie, unless he isn't.

More baddie points to Rovsea for joining in on the Livingstone bandwagon after not voting at all on day 1. He's a pretty good candidate going forward.

Not sure how much stock I put in the Livingstone case. It is, IIRC, the only case aside from the case on me though. If we are to follow Livingstone's argument then both him and Claude are suspicious, as relayed by johho, though, and Claude is 2 down from Livingstone. On the other hand Livingstone might have intoxicatedly crovaxed, but as mentioned I'm not sure how much stock to put in that case---i.e. I'm not terribly convinced of it.

So I roll with the having voted a known goodie one and Claude has less votes than Livingstone.
Vote Claude

He broke the TIE 8 minutes to deadline. That's not really suspicious, since somebody has to break it. And hadn't the game been so inactive, for obvious reasons, there might have been gained info. As it stands I don't see how him breaking the TIE was bad.

You are aware that it was a fourway he broke? As a baddie he easily could have sniped in a five way which, while probably leading to his death, would almost have won the game for the goodies. Had he done that we'd be 10 players left and hence on the last day.

So actually he looks less suspicious now, since he did the goodie thing (break the large TIE) instead of allowing it to stand (claim not being on due to New Years, which would be really easy), or exploit the inactivity and make a fiveway.

Unvote Claude
Vote Livingstone

Voting Claude because he voted a known goodie, which again is terrible reasoning that Wagon should know better than to do, and then he is awfully quick to jump ship from said vote onto the bandwagon. I still feel that Wagon is a very good candidate for today and should be tied.

All in all, I'd say De Chat and Wagon are our best bets for being a wolf, and since Wagon already has several votes, I'll give our Spaniard friend some attention.

Vote De Chat

 

[Rovsea]

I'm legitimately amused.

 

[Jacksonian Missionary]

Oh right Rovs is dead, I guess that's important information.

 

[ramius3443]

Unless the GM lied and Rovs faked his death

 

[Daffius]

Activity is appalling. I come on expecting pages of stuff to go on and there isn't even a page.

On topic, I do find this reasoning off. Wagon is too methodical to go for such a stupid vote.

So I roll with the having voted a known goodie one and Claude has less votes than Livingstone.
Vote Claude

Then again I'm contemplating to just vote someone that has contributed nothing thus far.

 

[Health]

Activity is appalling. I come on expecting pages of stuff to go on and there isn't even a page.

On topic, I do find this reasoning off. Wagon is too methodical to go for such a stupid vote.

Then again I'm contemplating to just vote someone that has contributed nothing thus far.

That is a product of these recent times. It seems that dead men tell more tales than living ones. I'd say that those who are usually active should be under suspicion, but honestly given that most react only to vote and analyze then that makes some bit of sense.

On another topic Wagonwheels does seem a bit off. Whilst he did call out Cloppers for his somewhat lazy vote he did proceed to do the same thing. So... A bit of a swing and a miss there.

Oh and one more thing, let's try not to shamble like the living dead towards the line of death.

VOTE SWAGONLITZ

 

[LatinKaiser]

Frankly terrible reasoning for voting Claude, he's pretty well established as someone who comes on near the deadline to cast his vote, and breaking a tie on day 1 is pretty standard I'd say. Especially since we didn't have a whole lot of reason to tie. And you are persistent with a fairly lazy vote today on Claude as well, so some baddie points to De Chat for tunneling. He hasn't even discussed anyone else this whole game.


More baddie points to Rovsea for joining in on the Livingstone bandwagon after not voting at all on day 1. He's a pretty good candidate going forward.



Voting Claude because he voted a known goodie, which again is terrible reasoning that Wagon should know better than to do, and then he is awfully quick to jump ship from said vote onto the bandwagon. I still feel that Wagon is a very good candidate for today and should be tied.

All in all, I'd say De Chat and Wagon are our best bets for being a wolf, and since Wagon already has several votes, I'll give our Spaniard friend some attention.

Vote De Chat

Solid case against De Chat here. Having played with De Chat in a pack several times before, I'm quite familiar with his type of baddie play: make lazy votes and try to fly under the radar. When he's a goodie he's usually pretty active, but as a baddie he is almost always just barely making any effort at all.

Vote De Chat

 

[jeray2000]

Vote Count ~ 4 1/2 Hours to Deadline
Wagonlitz - 3
aedan777[203]
EUROO7[205]
Health[213]

De Chatillon - 2
Jacksonian Missionary[208]
LatinKaiser[214]


Clophiroth - 1
Wagonlitz [202]

Claude LC - 1
De Chatillon [206]


Not Voted
@Claude LC
@Daffius
@johho888
@Clophiroth
@Dorei

 

[LatinKaiser]

De Chatillon - 1
Jacksonian Missionary[208]
LatinKaiser[214]

De Chat should be listed as having two votes.

 

[jeray2000]

De Chat should be listed as having two votes.

I noticed it shortly after I posted. I catch approximately 300% more errors in everything I post immediately after I hit the Post Reply button.

 

[De Chatillôn]

Solid case against De Chat here. Having played with De Chat in a pack several times before, I'm quite familiar with his type of baddie play: make lazy votes and try to fly under the radar. When he's a goodie he's usually pretty active, but as a baddie he is almost always just barely making any effort at all.

Vote De Chat

Nothing in this post is true at all

 

[Jacksonian Missionary]

Solid case against De Chat here. Having played with De Chat in a pack several times before, I'm quite familiar with his type of baddie play: make lazy votes and try to fly under the radar. When he's a goodie he's usually pretty active, but as a baddie he is almost always just barely making any effort at all.

Vote De Chat

First livingstone and now de chat, you sure do like jumping on the nearest case and attach this game.

 

[johho888]

Seems that some baddies were trying to save Claude really hard here. Seems Wagon has some attention already so I'm with Claude.

Vote Claude

It was indeed a bit of a old fashioned bandwagon leading to this.

Vote Count

Dr.Livingstone - 8
Daffius[163]
johho888[164]
LatinKaiser[167]
aedan777[173]
Rovsea [175]
Clophiroth[188]
Claude LC[190]
Wagonlitz[183 Claude LC --> 193]

Claude LC - 3
Health[171]
De Chatillon[169]
Dr.Livingstone[156 Rovsea --> 187]

Wagonlitz - 2
EUROO7 [146]
Jacksonian Missionary[162]

Daffius - 1
Dorei[178]

Any objections?

But if you think someone wanted to save Claude I doubt Wagon is your man since he pushed Claude up as a viable option to Dr.L making it Dr.L-Claude 5-3. Him switching away to 8-3 when it was Dr.L-Claude 7-4 just before the deadline (1 minute) seems more pointless than anything else. Or do we usually have vote swings/snipefests close to deadline in Lite?

Then again, what other cases are there?

De Chat for voting the same player every day (yes, I know it's just 2 days)? Tunneling is a good way to mess up analysis if you are found out to be a baddie in Big games but is the same true in Lites?

Cloph for the late flagrant bandwagon yesterday?

Claude for being saved? Isn't that more hoping he is a baddie because that would clear a few players (notably De Chat and Health)

Gah!