Werewolf Lite CCCLXIII: Ace Attorney

[Rovsea]

To be honest, we should have played that one much better.

 

[EUROO7]

Ya think?

 

[Gen. Marshall]

Spockyt should have upped his game the moment we all realized the wolves were hunting inactives. Shame, though thanks for the scan.

Will analyze when not drunk. Am not marty.

 

[Gen. Skobelev]

NIGHT 0

Spoiler

JermanTK the villager is hunted

DAY 1/NIGHT 1

Spoiler

Jacksonian Missionary: 6
deathbytwombat [132]
EUROO7 [140 Rovsea -> 151]
Hazbot [227]
marty99 [186 tamius23 -> 282 Emperor Ike -> 306 Wagonlitz -> 309]
Wagonlitz [129 aedan777 -> 271 Emperor Ike -> 312]
Gen. Marshall [158 Gen. Skobelev -> 247 Audren -> 330]

Audren: 2
Rovsea [128 marty99 -> 200]
Najs [212]

Rovsea: 2
aedan777 [127]
Emperor Ike [185 Jacksonian Missionary -> 225]

marty99: 1
tamius23 [157]

Emperor Ike: 1
Gen. Skobelev [187]

RepBentley: 1
Spockyt [184]

Najs: 1
RepBentley [202 marty99 -> 239]

Wagonlitz: 1
Audren [156 Wagonlitz -> 250 unvote -> 268 Emperor Ike -> 283]


not voted: 1
Jacksonian Missionary [160 Wagonlitz -> 267 Emperor Ike -> 304 Wagonlitz -> 353 EUROO7 -> 353 deathbywombat -> 353 aedan777 -> 353 Jacksonian Missionary -> 353 Spockyt -> 353 Audren -> 353 unvote]

Spockyt tried to vote Emperor Ike in post 334 without unvoting RepBentley.


Jacksonian Missionary the villager is lynched.

NIGHT 1

RepBentley the villager is hunted.

DAY 2/NIGHT 2

Spoiler

Hazbot: 5
Gen. Skobelev [416]
Emperor Ike [450 Audren -> 496]
Spockyt [428 tamius23 -> 524]
Rovsea [435 EUROO7 -> 562]
Wagonlitz [495 Hazbot -> 554 Najs -> 566]

Najs: 3
deathbytwombat [458 Emperor Ike -> 499]
Gen. Marshall [391 EUROO7 -> 433 Rovsea -> 459 Najs -> 493 Hazbot -> 535]
Audren [395 Wagonlitz -> 527 Spockyt -> 539 Wagonlitz -> 549]

Emperor Ike: 3
Najs [439]
Hazbot [483]
EUROO7 [419 Emperor Ike -> 492 Audren -> 494 Hazbot -> 512 Wagonlitz -> 540 Najs -> 563]

Spockyt: 2
tamius23 [455]
marty99 [456]

Rovsea: 1
aedan777 [425]

Audren tried to unvote Najs and vote Emperor Ike in post 574 but deadline had passed.

Hazbot the wolf is lynched.

NIGHT 2

Emperor Ike the villager is hunted.

DAY 3/NIGHT 3

Spoiler

PRE-OUTING [615]

Audren: 1
EUROO7 [600]

deathbytwombat: 1
Spockyt [614]


not voted: 10
Gen. Skobelev []
Rovsea []
Wagonlitz []
deathbytwombat []
Gen. Marshall []
Audren []
Najs []
tamius23 []
marty99 []
aedan777 []

DEADLINE


Wagonlitz: 9
Rovsea [615]
tamius23 [617]
Gen. Skobelev [618]
Gen. Marshall [622]
deathbytwombat [623]
marty99 [634]
Najs [638]
aedan777 [639]
Audren [647]

Audren: 1
EUROO7 [600]

deathbytwombat: 1
Spockyt [614]


not voted: 1
Wagonlitz []

Wagonlitz the wolf is lynched.

NIGHT 3

Spockyt the seer is hunted.

 

[Gen. Skobelev]

Allrighty then. JL played yesterday like bunch of idiots, unfortunately. With neither seer nor spokesman in any danger you should just have shut up and let the voting go as usual as parity was nowhere near. Oh well, I guess post-game it can be discussed more.

So - we can see at least two wolves on Jacksonian on day 1. Wagonlitz the wolf was on danger on day 1 and we know on 5-way tie Hazbot broke the tie by voting Jacksonian. Others in the tie were Audren the unknown, Rovsea the spokesman, Marty the unknown and Emperor Ike the villager. So - was Wagonlitz only wolf who got helped by that vote or was there another in the race?

Wagonlitz started day 1 by voting Aedan which lead to nowhere, after that Ike the villager and finally landed on Jacksonian to seal the deal.

Day 2 Wagon was wobbling and voted Hazbot only after he had already shot up and was clearly the candidate with most momentum. Good spot to alibi vote and potentially making the wagon on Hazbot too big for people to stick with it, eh? Other major candidate at that point was Ike the villager who wasn't gaining more votes a that point. Marty was around that point but did nothing game-wise; deathbywombat was also around and responded by switching from Ike to Najs. Notice how Najs became major alternative candidate and he was about to be lynched until Wagon sniped from Najs to Hazbot and broke the tie. Alibi vote or saving another packmate?

And of course day 3 was totally useless voting-wise.


Now, if Najs is packmate then Wagonlitz

Audren of course was pushing heavily to save Hazbot; almost too heavily for a packmate. Maybe too bad play to be a wolf with inside info? Especially as he was lobbing for Wagonlitz's death - though Audren did switch to Najs when Hazbot had 4 and Najs 3 votes thus making tie. This lead Wagonlitz abandoning Hazbot and moving to Najs. Then Euro sealed the deal on Hazbot and Wagonlitz moved to nominally break tie but maybe also trying for alibi votes.

Marty & Tamius have been almost dead weight in this game. Though I must say this

Why is Spocky still on Wombat? He posted precisely three minutes before Wagon was outed.

post certainly raised my eyebrows when I read the update. Did Tamius want to probe for reactions on Spockyt (who shouldn't have been considered good lynch for his vote on Hazbot)? If Tamius is villager, that was pretty poor play to draw attention to seer. And if he's wolf..

Aedan has avoided doing any meaningful votes on wolves (at least as far as we know). Though Wagonlitz did have a vote on him day 1 but that switched off and it wasn't full campaign to have him lynched. Could be genuine annoyance at the silly day 1 standard vote or could have been easy and rather safe alibi vote. Could go either way. Though in fairness, has been giving some thoughts every day.

I'm still waiting for Marty to say anything meaningful. No analysis and no votes on wolves ain't the way to play if you are villager. Marty voted Wagonlitz on day 1 but immediately changed, claiming it a mistake and going for the villager Jacksonian.

Euro was crucial in lynching Hazbot after all.

Rovsea is spokesman so there's that.

Which leaves deathbywombat. On day 1 he lead the charge on Jacksonian Missionary and never strayed from the villager. Day 2 he voted for Ike here while defending Wagonlitz obliguely.

...........

vote deathbywombat

though I must say Tamius & Marty are both rather tempting candidates, too.

 

[Gen. Skobelev]

deathbytwombat: 1
Gen. Skobelev [665]


not voted: 9
Rovsea []
tamius23 []
Gen. Marshall []
deathbytwombat []
marty99 []
Najs []
aedan777 []
Audren []
EUROO7 []

 

[tamius23]

Marty & Tamius have been almost dead weight in this game. Though I must say this

post certainly raised my eyebrows when I read the update. Did Tamius want to probe for reactions on Spockyt (who shouldn't have been considered good lynch for his vote on Hazbot)? If Tamius is villager, that was pretty poor play to draw attention to seer. And if he's wolf.

I had assumed (perhaps optimistically) that Spocky's vote on Hazbot had been a coup de grâce on his packmate for villager cred. Obviously that hasn't turned out to be the case.

And his vote three minutes before an outing, then going away for at least ten hours and not being on at the deadline was at best weird. Not that the benefits are huge for doing what he did as a wolf, but still, odd.

 

[Rovsea]

Najs seems somewhat less suspicious because of Wagon's attempted switch to him. Audren seems somewhat less suspicious because of his early pressure on Wagonlitz. EURO did help kill Hazbot, and it makes no sense for him to be doing shenanigans at that point as a wolf, so he doesn't look as bad. I agree that Tamius and Marty have been pretty quiet thus far. Going with Skobie's idea about the day 1 TIE, accepting that right now Audren looks less suspicious, marty looks more suspicious. I'd also like to point out that he wasn't as outraged by my early outing yesterday as he could have been, although maybe that's just wishful thinking. To be honest, I also saw the post of Deathbywombat's that Skobie linked, and I sort of agree with most of his sentiments that I saw, so not sure exactly that he's the best lynch right now, although his voting record is kind of bad right now. Aedan and Najs have both been rather quiet, although aedan did say that he missed most of Day 2. Whether we all believe that or not is up for debate. Skobie looks villager-ish, and his voting record isn't bad, so nothing in particular to recommend a lynch there. Honestly, marty does seem like the best candidate to me right now, although he might change my opinion later today.

Vote marty99

 

[Gen. Skobelev]

I had assumed (perhaps optimistically) that Spocky's vote on Hazbot had been a coup de grâce on his packmate for villager cred. Obviously that hasn't turned out to be the case.

And his vote three minutes before an outing, then going away for at least ten hours and not being on at the deadline was at best weird. Not that the benefits are huge for doing what he did as a wolf, but still, odd.

Hmm - fair enough, I suppose. Still doesn't change that I'd expect to hear more from you (and others).

Najs seems somewhat less suspicious because of Wagon's attempted switch to him. Audren seems somewhat less suspicious because of his early pressure on Wagonlitz. EURO did help kill Hazbot, and it makes no sense for him to be doing shenanigans at that point as a wolf, so he doesn't look as bad. I agree that Tamius and Marty have been pretty quiet thus far. Going with Skobie's idea about the day 1 TIE, accepting that right now Audren looks less suspicious, marty looks more suspicious. I'd also like to point out that he wasn't as outraged by my early outing yesterday as he could have been, although maybe that's just wishful thinking. To be honest, I also saw the post of Deathbywombat's that Skobie linked, and I sort of agree with most of his sentiments that I saw, so not sure exactly that he's the best lynch right now, although his voting record is kind of bad right now. Aedan and Najs have both been rather quiet, although aedan did say that he missed most of Day 2. Whether we all believe that or not is up for debate. Skobie looks villager-ish, and his voting record isn't bad, so nothing in particular to recommend a lynch there. Honestly, marty does seem like the best candidate to me right now, although he might change my opinion later today.

Vote marty99

Well, I didn't say his thoughts weren't well-grounded. I was saying that post of his defended Wagonlitz while appearing not to do it. Whether it was voice of reasonable villager or wolf trying to nudge vote away from packmate is anybodys guess.

 

[Gen. Marshall]

I'm glad that someone else is wary of wombat as well. He's been uncharacteristically quiet and his analysis has been unimpressive, which tends to point towards a wolf wombat. That alone is enough reason for me to vote him.

Vote wombat

 

[marty99]

I'm glad that someone else is wary of wombat as well. He's been uncharacteristically quiet and his analysis has been unimpressive, which tends to point towards a wolf wombat. That alone is enough reason for me to vote him.

Vote wombat

In fairness to him, there wasn't anything to analyse yesterday with the early outing, and before that, before Hazbot's death, there was no real information. Really, only now is when things will actually be meaningful. That applies to me as well. In the next few hours I'll make an effort.

Also, to people who've played with him: I don't know SpockyT at all, how competent would he be as a seer?

 

[Gen. Marshall]

In fairness to him, there wasn't anything to analyse yesterday with the early outing, and before that, before Hazbot's death, there was no real information. Really, only now is when things will actually be meaningful. That applies to me as well. In the next few hours I'll make an effort.

Also, to people who've played with him: I don't know SpockyT at all, how competent would he be as a seer?

Wombat usually doesn't follow your principle of not analysing when "there's nothing to analyse". I've seen him be spot on, pinpointing 3 out of 4 wolves on Day 2 without any wolves down and actually haven't seen a single game of his so far in which we are both villagers and he doesn't do a good analysis early on.

He said he's boycotting this game due to poor JL performance though, but I'm skeptical.

 

[Team Wombat]

Well, crap. Now I actually have to try now. Also, members of the JL, that was a really stupid stunt to pull with the early outing. And by stupid I mean a rotting cactus probably could have handled that better. How the hell the JL exposed the seer and outed both members of the JL is a mystery of stupidity I will never be able to fathom. Which is why I boycotted the game last night - I dislike idiocy in all its forms, and try to avoid it whenever possible, including online.

Analysis incoming in about an hour - sit tight.

Also, to people who've played with him: I don't know SpockyT at all, how competent would he be as a seer?

Seer isn't that hard a role if you actually get good advice. Spock's generally one of the less active players in current WW, though.

 

[marty99]

Wombat usually doesn't follow your principle of not analysing when "there's nothing to analyse". I've seen him be spot on, pinpointing 3 out of 4 wolves on Day 2 without any wolves down and actually haven't seen a single game of his so far in which we are both villagers and he doesn't do a good analysis early on.

He said he's boycotting this game due to poor JL performance though, but I'm skeptical.

He has a point about poor JL performance though. And the reason I asked about Spocky is because I'm always a little paranoid whenever a newbie seer dies immediately after the first outing. The hunt might make sense from the hunting inactives part, although the wolves seemed to somewhat abandon that whenever they hunted Ike. It could have been for voting Hazbot, but whilst Ike's vote was actually damning, Spocky's was more pure bandwagoning, when he was already significantly in the lead. The hunt just confused me. There were better options unless there's someone in the pack good at pinpointing seers.

 

[Gen. Marshall]

He has a point about poor JL performance though. And the reason I asked about Spocky is because I'm always a little paranoid whenever a newbie seer dies immediately after the first outing. The hunt might make sense from the hunting inactives part, although the wolves seemed to somewhat abandon that whenever they hunted Ike. It could have been for voting Hazbot, but whilst Ike's vote was actually damning, Spocky's was more pure bandwagoning, when he was already significantly in the lead. The hunt just confused me. There were better options unless there's someone in the pack good at pinpointing seers.

Spockyt was playing the obvious seer in thread by voting just before the outing and then ignoring the thread all day. Tamius pointed that out in thread, which seems to make him both a less likely wolf as JL member, but it's plausible that the wolves picked up the same thing, either directly or after reading Tamius' post about him.

But on the matter of wombat; you don't consider him a good lynch?

 

[marty99]

Spockyt was playing the obvious seer in thread by voting just before the outing and then ignoring the thread all day. Tamius pointed that out in thread, which seems to make him both a less likely wolf as JL member, but it's plausible that the wolves picked up the same thing, either directly or after reading Tamius' post about him.

But on the matter of wombat; you don't consider him a good lynch?

Ah, I missed that. I was suspecting he had contacted an unscanned player. Haven't really read the thread yet. I could give a vague answer about wombat but I'm just gonna be honest and say at this point I have no idea. He does seem to be more quiet than usual, and that is a bona fide cause for suspicion, but that's an argument you've already made. I'll let you know in a couple of hours where I stand on him and hopefully everyone else.

 

[EUROO7]

To be honest, we should have played that one much better.

You're an idiot. the game is dead because of you.

 

[marty99]

You're an idiot. the game is dead because of you.

Hardly. The game livens up once the seer dies.

 

[EUROO7]

Hardly. The game livens up once the seer dies.

is that why we've had one page of discussion since the update 15 hours ago?

 

[Team Wombat]

On to analysis.

Audren - He's almost been acting too clueless to be a wolf - lobbying to save Hazbot, and trying to snipe to Ike as well on day 2. He did go for Wagon early, and was correct in that regard, although that lynch attempt never went anywhere - alibi vote? Maybe the wolves thought Ike was seer and tried to vote/snipe accordingly, setting a conditional vote? In which case a possible EURO-Audren pack could work very well together. Also, despite his seeming fixation on Wagon, he focused on other candidates:

I do remember being intrigued by wombat's questioning of Najs. I want to test this further.
UNVOTE WAGON
VOTE NAJS

Aedan - Has been mostly quiet up to this point, and picked the wrong horse (Rovsea) up to this point on day 2. What he does today will tell us more, but he's definitely on my radar screen as a possible wolf. Want to hear more from him before looking in his direction.
Rovsea - Cleared, but a dead man walking.
Marty - Mostly quiet up to this point. What he does/says today will tell us more, as in my very limited experience he usually comes alive day 3, and the early outing on day 3 precluded any analysis on that front.
Marshall - Cleared, but a dead man walking.
DBW - I would like to point out that my analysis from day 2, for the most part, despite the unnecessary complaining about it, has held up pretty well (pending Audren's status, of course): Rovsea is indeed clear, and Hazbot was indeed suspicious. Spock's voting pattern was a bit suspicious at the time, and Marty and aedan remain on my radar screen as possible wolves.

Well Audren is fixated in turn on Wagon, and Rovsea is right to point that out, although I think it's a case of two villagers shouting at one another. Consider yourself a bit more of a suspect in my book, Aedan.

Also a bit wary of spock (that last throwaway vote on Ike when Jackson was dead to rights, Hazbot (3rd vote on Jackson, making him back into a contender), aedan (see my comment on his vote), and Marty (see below).

Also this post concerning Audren's attempt to save Hazbot proved prescient:

I hate statements like this with a fiery passion. 1) Assuming a ruthless pack, the wolves may not care; in fact, some might even choose to pile on if Hazbot is indeed a wolf to gain credibility. 2) What is to prevent you from being a wolf trying to change the situation in favor of a packmate?

Skobie - Probable goodie - quality of analysis has been very sound, if inaccurate at the current time, and posts feel very villager-like.
EURO - Hard to say. He put a quiet vote back onto Ike late on day 2; Audren's failed votesnipe on Ike makes far more sense if the wolves thought he was a seer and voted accordingly. Dangerous play to make, if so, but EURO's good enough to pull something like that off and not draw too much suspicion/be able to argue his way out of it. Also pinpointed spock as a goodie early, which could fit in well with a later spock hunt:

Spock strikes me as a villager. Return to Wagon that we may end him.

Najs - Relatively quiet throughout the game - could be returning player syndrome, however. Also note that Audren tried to switch away from him late in a failed snipe attempt onto Ike (which would have been fatal for Ike).
Tamius23 - Relatively quiet throughout the game. Want to hear more from him.

So, we've got 2 wolves left. I could picture any of Aedan/Marty/Najs/tamius being possible wolves; Audren and EURO are also possibilities as packmates and would work well together. Can't picture this iteration of skobie as a wolf, and the genius collective has already outed themselves. (Unless somehow the JL sent out a PM to an uncleared player, but I can't picture even them pulling that stunt in a Lite.)

I want to test my Audren/EURO theory. Aedan/tamius also works as a quiet pack; both have voted only throwaways at this point and have been generally less active than normal. Marty's done the same, although he's actually promised some forthcoming analysis and I want to hear more on that front.

Vote Audren