The problem with Zealous defence and what I believe MC is aiming at, is that a villager seldom does that due to lack of information. Also wolves don't do it to save packmates, might be a good tactic to try, but I'm yet to see it played out well. However wolves do it for villagers, since they know who the villagers are, hence it's easy to score goodie points by saying "I told you so" when the candidate flips village.
(I'm not buying a JL explanation)
Your defence of Wagon indeed feels like that. I'll wait for your response to MC.
Food for thought if I should switch based on this alone. Anyway, unless something drastic happens, I'll be voting to kill one of Wagon, Spock, Audren today.
*Nods*
That's an excellent summation of my line of reasoning there. I've used the tactic once or twice myself, and it's especially effective when the guy gets lynched anyway so you don't have to look bad for it.
Certainly. I think Wagon's actions and reactions to his post about the seven was the result of being stupid, not being a wolf. Yeah, he ought to mention that there are seven players that might be the Seer, if only so we don't vote for them. If he was a wolf, that was the extent of what he needed to post. Trying to actually go after the seven, and argue about it for a while, puts himself far too much in the open than is reasonable. Sure, he might've convinced a couple newer players to go along with him, but would that be worth it? As for his voting me, he is once again wrong, and merely voting me because I'm not one of the seven. Even the idea that I'm defending Wagon on Day 1 for no necessary reason is a better case than Wagon's case on me.
Interesting, especially now that Audren has flipped villager, so we know it's at least an honest assessment of Wagon.
But this also exemplifies Wagon's main huge flaw with his wolf play, often he will go over the top to an extent he doesn't need to go in a desperate attempt to seem like a villager.
Wagon's main flaw with his wolf play is that he has some relatively transparent tells. Most of the time he's tactically competent except when he does completely insane things.
Unless the wolves are morons they would be able to figure it out themselves so there wasn't really much damage done by saying it. And it narrows down wolves.
Except that it doesn't narrow down wolves in any meaningful way. Presumably that group includes at least one wolf (though even that isn't guaranteed, as someone could easily have sent orders without posting in-thread). You'd expect any group of 7 to probably contain at least one wolf anyway, so it tells us nothing useful.
And the day ends with a mass late run on Audren, at least nominally for tie prevention. Meh. I don't have a huge issue with that, but it's worth keeping an eye on that group, I guess. Maybe.
Don't think I have ever seen Wagon post this much near deadline, which may be a better wolf or villager tell than any of that seer-seeking crap. Does anyone know him well enough to say which of the two tells, if any, it is?
Level of activity, per se, is not a wolf tell for Wagon. There's a certain type of activity of his that is a wolf tell of his. I haven't noticed it yet, so right now he's on my likely goodie list.
Vote Daffius.
He is too active.
??? Activity, especially giving good advice, is always a good thing for the village. Wolves like inactivity.
Indeed.
Well, in fact, a wolf can be too active not to draw special attention on himself.
The trouble with activity, from a lupine perspective, is that it's very easy to slip in some way. Also, if you're active and consistently killing villagers, you also attract suspicion to yourself. This often leads to wolves lurking to some degree or another rather than engaging with the game, making cases, etc. unless they really have to, while villagers need to be active to discover wolves. Activity, in and of itself, should never be considered a baddie tell, and instead tends to be a substantial positive indicator (though with an experienced and skilled player as Daffius is, that has to be taken with a grain of salt).
So let me get this straight. Audren was lynched because he was 'protecting' Wagon who then proceeded to help lynch him? That reasoning is utterly absurd and shows why a divinely inspired ruler is better than any democratic system.
Griffin would look a little suspect if not for the fact that he himself had the same number of votes on him as Audren at that point so I could buy the protecting himself angle quite easily. Marshall seemed rather passé about the possibility of an unnecessary early tie while Daffius and Deathbywombat do not seem quite so suspicious to me. I think madchemist looks the most suspect given his starting of the 'protecting Wagon' line of reasoning. So:
Vote Madchemist.
The line of reasoning is sound, as that particular tendency has been observed in numerous games in the past. It happened to be wrong this time around, which happens more regularly than I'd like, but oh well. If I were you, I would cast a bit more suspicion on the followers rather than the originator of the case (obviously, in part that's because I know the originator of the case is a villager, but you obviously do not have knowledge of the same). But it draws far less attention to jump on someone else's case than to make a wrong one of your own, and so wolves tend to do the former more often than the latter.
I can see no serious objection to Jerman or Spockyt as candidates right now, but I think I'm going to go for the elephant in the room and
Vote Black_Griffin
Everyone has kinda vaguely stated him as suspect without anyone ever actually voting him, which I find a bit odd. Plus there is the whole proposing to go after players for being active thing he did there.
