Werewolf Lite CCCLI: Werewolves of Catan

[al-Aziz]

Ah yes, what brilliant wit. Call off the game guys, Aziz has proven me wrong. I'm a wolf. Just lynch me now. But seriously hon, at least put in some effort. We essentially had 6 votes on madchemist (Ironhide should not have been subbed and made it clear he wanted to vote MC), and 2 on Aedan. Do the math. A wolf voted for MC yesterday. It's a poor defense.

I know you're not wrong. It's just fairly obnoxious that you could make such a convincing case and also be downright impossible to counter. And the most asinine part is that I really only have myself to blame.

If I still have to explain, you haven't been reading.

But fine. Look at my post that starts with quick thoughts on players. Note how everyone doesn't fit well except for you. Prove that someone else is a better candidate. You've yet to do that promised analysis. You've just defended yourself.

How about Ironhide? I recall that MC apparently had a voting-Jerman thing, but no one has had any relationship at all with Ironhide.

Strawman first off. I was referring to the past few days. Where silence extremely helps the wolf you stayed quiet. And 2nd off, are we sharing what we did yesterday and today? Okay, I spent hours on the phone with my sister, had several programs to work on and papers to write, went on a date with my gf, had club commitments, went to work, and oh look, I still had time to analyze. And you had plenty of time to do analysis. Promises ain't worth shit if you don't keep them. I had no reason to believe you'd keep yours. This is werewolf, hon.

Well, honey, I'd prefer if you didn't use obnoxious terms to refer to me, because I'm already fairly annoyed.

Yes, it's indefensible and you're asking me to defend it.

And how exactly was me being silent helpful for wolves? Let's look at this, actually:
D3: I'm really vocal about DBW, and LK is outed and lynched
D4:

Vote Count 3ish Hours til Deadline

JermanTK 2:
Madchemist (#596)
Aedan777 (#640)

Wagonlitz 1:
k-59 (#663)

RB33 1:
Wagonlitz (#614)

Aedan777 1:
Luftwafer (#597)

Ironhide G1:
Al-Aziz (#599)

Not Voted: @Ironhide G1 @RB33 @happycats517 @JermanTK

I wouldn't mind a Jerman-RB TIE either, and that's something I can do.

Unvote Ironhide, Vote RB

(It is notable that neither MC or Wagon are voting Ironhide, out of the three proposed CAWZ candidates.)

Not really sure about MC after this. I'm not confident enough to call him out on a wolf, but my gut tells me to be suspicious of him. If he comes up wolf he fits best in a pack with RB33 (only quiet player he hasn't specifically pressured, while he put votes on Jerman and Ironhide early on days where they stayed up as serious candidates), Aziz (has pointed out flaws with her analysis, but hasn't really gone after her or suspected her), or Luftwafer (no real interactions with him). And me, he hasn't really suspected me after day 1 and in fact he makes a big assumption on my villagerness when making cases on Wagon and k-59 on day 2. Aedan and Wagonlitz have some potential. He's pointed them out as suspicious but never voted him. One of them might fit in a pack with him assuming that he's including at least one packmate in his list of suspicious players.

You're also ignoring that you would fit not-terribly as a packmate. You've never voted MC and you've never really pursued him.

No idea whom to vote, was busy all this day just got back. Ill just make a throwaway vote

Vote madchemist

purely throwaway

Right. So why is Ironhide a subpar fit compared with me with MC? Because he's barely talked? This is why we lynched the CAWZ candidates.
D5 (yesterday): I got on after the outing. You will realize this is consistent with my usual logging-on time. Yes, I should have contributed more. Well, I'm doing that now; I don't see why your case is any better than an inadept CAWZ.

 

[al-Aziz]

Ok guys, to prove I'm not a worthless player, I'm going through every single post from day 1 onwards. Will do parts and will put a REST TBD and EDI this post when I can.




Bad move voting a villager, and a stupid reason(yes it was day one I know).











More day 1voting..



CIV IV IS BETTER!



















More day 1voting







My day 1 vote.

Yes, me. Totally.

Ah Communism; Socialism in its finest.















I also am decent at dogding things.



Unschoolings?













Man the little scooters



Arts are good, especially music!



Ah Bill Nye, the guy who pretended to be a scientist on television on a sub par show.





Don't forget the first lady determning what you eat for lunch!







Sure. I've never had it in school, but so etimes it is necessary for parents to use it to teach kids discipline and show them they are perfect little unttachable special snowflakes who can never have their feelings hurt.

Oh no a Conservative! You are a racist sexist hater islamophobic homophobic and feminist anti woman part of the patriarchy! WAAAAAAH!!!

Good vote on wolf.
REST TBD

This is how analysis works.

Vote Ironhide

 

[Ironhide G1]

Wow go ahead kill a villager fine. Next time I put any effort into something I'll just fi d its a waste.

 

[al-Aziz]

So I'm the real seers. The real scan list is

Audren
Rovsea
LK
MC
Aedan

But I'm pretty sure from Wagon's voting pattern compared to MC/LK and the way Wagon reacted to the outing he is a wolf. We'll band wagon him today and hopeful I can ping the last wolf on my next scan.

Why am I on this list of trusted people if I haven't been scanned?

Because I forgot to add you that the add of the list.

Well, k-59 scanned me; I assume he was hunted, or something.

 

[al-Aziz]

First off Aziz, did you bother reading my other posts where I looked at LK, Wagon, and MC and talked about who might fit in a pack with them? I quoted basically anything I felt worth quoting and gave a final summary at the end. Not everything I quoted was a wolf tell, stop building strawmans.



Lol Wagon.

This really represents a fundamental misunderstanding of how I communicate, as a wolf and as a villager. I don't create strawmen because it's not helpful to anyone and undermines me. If I say something that's not true, it's probably due to a misunderstanding.

 

[k-59]

Unschoolings?

Like homeschooling but even less structure/busy work.

 

[Ironhide G1]

Vote al Aziz

For voting a villager trying to help the village.

You guys can kill me a villager of you want, but know that if you do and you guys find I'm a villager, I can say I told you so.

 

[al-Aziz]

So quick thoughts:
1) Ironhide doesn't fit well in a pack with madchemist. madchemist put a dangerous vote on him before the outing.
2) I don't fit well in a pack with Wagon. His Day 1 vote nearly killed me.
3) k-59 isn't a great fit with madchemist. MC pushed him on D2 and only moved off him late in the day when others didn't jump on his case that took my villagerness for granted.
4) Jerman again isn't a great fit with madchemist. As I noted before, he pushed Jerman early on the tie day and also supported Jerman as an alternative candidate on D2 after moving off k-59.
5) Aziz fits amazingly well with the pack. Hasn't really outright opposed or been opposed by Wagon and MC. Hasn't done any strong analysis on either of them. Best bet to look at

So it must be you, since it can't be me. /stupid logic

 

[al-Aziz]

You mean that dinky little post I already commented on? I took that into account. Still not any strong suspicion you cast on him.

You claimed it had no support.
I explained that it had support. That is the only thing that I claimed. I have never claimed that I placed strong suspicion on him.

You are referring to the game where I tried to defend Leondark. This caused everyone to suspect me and lynch me. The next Lite, aedan accused me of doing that even though I was a villager. I try not to make the same mistakes twice.

You also are mistaken when you expect me to have voted madchemist D1. According to this logic, any vote on D1 not one madchemist would be a suspicious one, even though it is only a 4/17 chance assuming I am a villager. It is frankly not a valid point to to accuse me of not voting for MC on D1.

Madchemist.

Close to deadline. Placing you above the voteswitch (the same action you claim makes me look suspicious when done earlier).
Don't think I ever called you suspicious for placing me above the voteswitch. Citation needed.

You called me suspicious for placing another person (Spock) above other candidates, even though, logically, I had no way of determining who was a wolf on D1.

I mentioned that DBW followed MC and you without thought before I posted. He followed MC and happy, not me, because I posted after DBW posted. It's kind of difficult to understand, I know, this whole temporal thing.
You voted in the vote switch after DBW responded to the "reaction" to the vote switch?

I was not referring to this. The voteswitch did not cause DBW to change his vote. The fact that you and madchemist expressed suspicion of how the voteswitch to avatar showed resistance to him caused DBW to change his vote. (The other cause he mentioned was the dichotomous choice of you and avatar, which had been caused partially by MC, LK, and I, and partially by k-59's switch to you.)

Defensive, aren't you? Again, if you bothered to read anything I posted you'd know I looked at basically every post I had a comment on.

Defensive, because you are attacking me. Defensive is not a wolfish attribute.

Here that Luftwafer, you're just too dumb to play WW and make your own decisions! Let Aunt Aziz decide for you!

Yes, it is condescending, and I'm sorry. (I did, though, think that he was legitimately overwhelmed, and I wanted to minimize that.) You fail to demonstrate why this is wolfish. After all, he still could have looked at other arguments.

Oh yes, Ironhide the leading candidate who MC was on right before the outing. A great choice! And k-59 the one MC tried to push after D1, another magnificent choice!

I didn't remember this.

Innocence by association is a poor reason. "A villager did it too so I'm cleared!"

I am not arguing that I am cleared. I am arguing that my believing that case was not an adequate reason to accuse me of being a wolf.

*sigh* let me get the picturebook for you. Again, prove someone else is a wolf and maybe I'll listen.

I've literally spent the last three hours on WW. Could you please get yourself a little patience? And maybe quit it with the allegations of lying and being insincere because I am typing and thinking as fast as I can.

 

[happycats517]

I'm inclined to go once more for one of the unduly quiet ones today I've seen precious little out of Ironhide, Jerman, LatinKaiser, and Osteles/RB.

Vote Ironhide

I think he's said the least of the bunch (besides RB/Osteles, who just subbed and should be given a chance to say something, as unlikely as he is to make use of same.).

This is why Ironhide is a bad candidate. Or are you gonna try to spin this as MC taking a gamble that another packmate would be outed so Ironhide himself would be saved or that madchemist had lost all hope and was willing to be bandwagoned.

I know you're not wrong. It's just fairly obnoxious that you could make such a convincing case and also be downright impossible to counter. And the most asinine part is that I really only have myself to blame.

Oh, well darn for you. But at the end of the day you can't defend yourself with the fact that you voted MC. None of us can. Spoiler alert: we all did. And yet a wolf still lives.

How about Ironhide? I recall that MC apparently had a voting-Jerman thing, but no one has had any relationship at all with Ironhide.

See above, I've literally made this point since the end of Day 4 when I took a long look at MC. Ironhide doesn't fit well in a pack with him.

And how exactly was me being silent helpful for wolves? Let's look at this, actually:

On Day 5, which would have been our last day if aedan didn't do the double outing, there was a noticeable silence. A silence that suggests that a lot of active players were content to sit in silence and say nothing. You trumpet how loud you were on other days but on this day all you have is excuses. The less the village talks on the last day, the more likely it is that the village doesn't rally behind a strong case, the less likely that the village stands united, and in the end the more likely the wolves stand victorious in the end.

D3: I'm really vocal about DBW, and LK is outed and lynched

Relevance fallacy. Your vocalness about DBW and D3 has nothing to do with LK being outed. That was all k-59 and DBW.

Well, k-59 scanned me; I assume he was hunted, or something.

You assume? Don't you remember sending in the order, or did Wagon do it? Also interesting that's all you talked about. No suggestions on who might be the last wolf, no discussion on players, no real attempt to aid the JL beyond the fact that you were cleared. You had the time to respond to it. Was a "Hey, X might be worth a look" too much?

This really represents a fundamental misunderstanding of how I communicate, as a wolf and as a villager. I don't create strawmen because it's not helpful to anyone and undermines me. If I say something that's not true, it's probably due to a misunderstanding.

Oh yes, how silly of me, I missed the part of my guide to werewolf were it said Aziz doesn't make strawmen. But really, your best defense is to claim your perfect enough that you'd never allow a straw man to slip through when making an argument?

So it must be you, since it can't be me. /stupid logic

Since you asked for me to be patient with you, I'll oblige. Please read that post again. Notice that it contains 5 points. Please read each point individually. You might notice that each point refers to a different player, specifically the 5 players that weren't outed. Now you also might notice that I have also included my thoughts on how well this group fits with the known pack members. Now you might continue to notice, if you're really good, that the list contains four people who have reasons that they don't fit in the pack and one person that doesn't. Now I know you're familiar with Occam's Razor. Apply that to this list. Who is the most likely wolf? You? And now you understand why this list exists. So please, stop bothering being snarky and providing us with a cacophony of sounds that signify nothing and actually attempt to contribute.

You are referring to the game where I tried to defend Leondark. This caused everyone to suspect me and lynch me. The next Lite, aedan accused me of doing that even though I was a villager. I try not to make the same mistakes twice.

You also are mistaken when you expect me to have voted madchemist D1. According to this logic, any vote on D1 not one madchemist would be a suspicious one, even though it is only a 4/17 chance assuming I am a villager. It is frankly not a valid point to to accuse me of not voting for MC on D1.

Oh right. I forgot to read the other part of my werewolf guide where it says Aziz was an AI created to be the perfect WW player, after each game she analyzes her performance and perfectly adapts to it, leaving her impervious to being fooled by the same tricks. Oh wait, sorry, that was Wagonlitz's entry. So you try not to make the same mistakes twice. Doesn't mean you don't.

You asked who you would have voted on D1, I provided an alternative. The fact that you didn't vote MC in itself is not suspicious. The fact is that you didn't when you definitely could have. I'm sorry, I'm not playing with perfect knowledge of how every player acts and why they act that way. I'm left to make assumptions based on my knowledge and create hypotheses to explain behavior. One hypothesis is that you protected MC by voting Spockyt and later avatar. You've accused several people involved in that switch of trying to save Spockyt or MC, so don't be surprised when it's thrown back in your face.

 

[happycats517]

You're also ignoring that you would fit not-terribly as a packmate. You've never voted MC and you've never really pursued him.

DO YOU READ?! You've replied to several posts where I've covered this and I've included it in my responses. Wagon almost killed me D1 and I put a dangerous vote on MC (and MC also endorsed me as a vote switch candidate when k-59 voted me. Too lazy to find it, but his response was "meh, I'm okay with this too", even though he easily could have protected me by saying he wanted to focus the switch on one candidate or something). But sure, yeah, Wagon, MC, and I were playing a game of "Kill Your Packmate"/s.

 

[happycats517]

Also, I'm loving this promised analysis, Aziz. Voting Ironhide for attempting some analysis, while it's admittedly not the best, he's at least trying although I'm a little underwhelmed that he plans to contain it to one post (something that's hard to keep track of) and has mostly responded to off topic things. Building a flawed case on Ironhide that I already covered if you bothered reading half the things you quote. Defending yourself over and over using half assed reasoning and poor logic. And to top it all of trying to throw suspicion at me when I've already explained several times why I'm a bad candidate and you haven't presented one shred of evidence to contradict me.

 

[EnvyDemon]

Ironhide is kinda acting weird. I have to say he's acting wolfish.

There are 4 of us.

Happycats is cleared by the Justice League, or so it looks like it. I doubt he's a wolf.

I know I'm not a wolf.

So the question is Al-Aziz or Ironhide, and quite frankly, as I said, Ironhide is acting weird. But as Happycats said, Al-Aziz fits well into a pack.

I think this is going to be a hard one.

 

[happycats517]

Happycats is cleared by the Justice League, or so it looks like it. I doubt he's a wolf.

Gonna be a 100% honest. I was never contacted by the JL so I was presumably never scanned. But as I've already explained, if you want to call me a wolf you have to explain why I voted MC day 1 to put him in the tie, why MC endorsed me as a vote switch candidate, and why Wagonlitz put me ahead in the tie over avatar when I likely would have died at that point. I'm a bad candidate for the last wolf.

Also, Ironhide is acting within the bounds of what I expect from him. I think if he was a wolf he'd be more likely to try and stay quiet and would have jumped on either me or Aziz since we seem like obvious targets since we're going at each other. I'll be keeping an eye on that analysis post though for sure.

I personally still think Aziz is the best candidate, but I've put up plenty of posts explaining why and her mind numbingly dense and snarky responses that ignore large parts of what I and others have typed have done little to sway my opinion.

 

[al-Aziz]

Possible, I suppose. But it's always way too easy to pick on the player who made a vote switch that didn't work out in the village's favor. Really not sure that's a move I like from you.

He is defending me, unfortunately.

Well, we've got pretty solid info on the first of those two, obviously. But I agree. Happycats is an unlikely wolf at the moment, for having received so many heavily threatening votes if nothing else. Coordinated packmate-saving snipes are a thing, but they're such a dangerous thing that they tend not to come into play until the wolves are almost at parity, or at least until the seer's dead.

He claims happy is an unlikely villager.

As for Spockyt - there's potential there. Most of the votes falling off him seem to have been due to his voters being of the more active variety, and that over-cautious hemming and hawing in the vote post you mention is a pretty solid lead and slipped beneath my notice in my quest to ensure my own survival. I'll add my seal of approval in that direction, even if I'm not sure I'm putting down a vote there yet.

Feigning conviction to push a specific lynch is a reasonably common wolf tactic.

I make efforts to save people if the case on them is patently absurd. Otherwise not. Day 1, the only patently absurd cases that I know to be absurd are on me.

Actually, if the happycats as villager hypothesis is right, k-59 is a very good candidate. His voting pattern basically ensured that happycats and Avatar are the top two suspects, with virtually no prospects for change.

Wagon also merits a good long look in that case, as he pushed up happycats in a similar fashion. Furthermore, he was on me prior to that point - both major negatives for him.

Not too much in this post to comment on, but TIEs are typically frowned upon with a living seer and encouraged without one. Whatever the demerits of Wagon's choices, TIE prevention was not one of them.

Throwaway votes are never a good thing. The only power a villager has is his vote, and placing said vote on a throwaway guarantees that your vote will not have any say in who gets lynched - and by extension, guarantees that other players who may not have your best interests in mind do get a say.

My top picks for the moment are k-59 and Wagon, with Spockyt a not-too-distant third.

Vote k-59

Not much else here, except that he is replying to what I asked him.

Umm... My vote was on Brokavolin, as a day one vote... I did not bandwagon on Happycats. But if day one voting is now a crime, I guess I need to find someone who has a "weak case". But that is not good analysis.

This game, Wagon is much more quiet than usual. Considering how much of a vocal player he is, it concerns me.
Vote Wagonlitz

Wait, did I quote this twice... or did he vote Wagonlitz several times?

When you propose a voteswitch due to the wolves appearing to be happy about the lynch you switch away from all current front runners.

Firstly in lites we just have 1 free TIE and blowing it early is to the benefit of the wolves and the wolves alone since we risk hitting the seer and cannot make an informed decision on who to TIE. And no I couldn't trust other people with preventing the TIE, since I time and time again have seen a day 1 TIE stand just before deadline and only get broken due to me doing it. And the reason I did it so far from deadline is that I was going to bed.

You can just use the size tags; they work in WYSIWYG too.

You don't think wanting to prevent a day 1 TIE is a real justificaion?
I don't think I have been particularly quiet; also notice how this deadline is in the middle of the night here in Europe.

Again, it was then or never due to sleeping at deadline.

Wagon against tries to put down voting for happy as a TIE-breaking action.

Vote count 3ish Hours til deadline

Spockyt 4: Deathbywombat (#350) LatinKaiser (#353) Happycats (#379) Al-Aziz (DBW #356 -> #367)

Deathbywombat 2: Spockyt (#360) Aedan777 (#374)

Aedan777 1: Rovsea (Al-Aziz #345 -> #366)

JermanTK 1: k-59 (#373)

k-59 1: Madchemist (#361)

Wagonlitz 1: Ironhide G1 (#364)

Not voted: @Osteles @Luftwafer @JermanTK

There was aedan, Jerman, Wagonlitz, and k-59 as candidates who were not Spock or DBW. You cannot expect me to pick out Wagonlitz as a good candidate because there was no case on him. It would be absurd for me to try to "protect" Wagonlitz when he wasn't in any danger.

So today is pretty much pure conjecture as it seems nobody has any hard evidence on anybody.
I do agree that the lynching yesterday was pretty easy, so I feel there is probably a wolf in that group.
I feel that push to save avatar looked organised

So in an attempt to put pressure on a fairly inactive and 'content-free' Avatar I will vote for him

VOTE AVATAR

Oh, so i look like a moron
Well I tried analysis
I think that happycat would be the best lynch then, he seemed to lead the charge to save himself?

UNVOTE AVATAR
VOTE HAPPY

Well I tried mark 2
I'm sorry for my flawed reasoning

Let's try again

UNVOTE HAPPY

Nice try. I mean it. You hit on some really valuable notes.

You can take your fair pick of Spock and DBW; you should probably look back in the thread to see why they're being run up.

Can you really blame me for assuming Luftwafer needed fewer choices?

I agree with aedan on wombat; it was strange how he first wanted a TIE and then claimed he prevented it. I also don't really see the case on Spockyt; yes he survived yesterday, but how is that suspicious.

Vote wombat

One of Wagon's posts.

Right. So of the people currently run up, Spockyt is my favored candidate, since my other top two choices from earlier today have gained zero traction whatsoever. Of course, he's already in the lead and has a bunch of people already claiming to favor his lynch, so my support isn't going to do much new in that direction.

Will have to see if I find an alternate candidate with merit to swing my vote to. Wombat and Spockyt are quite unlikely packmates due to their pursuit of each other, so lynching both would likely be an unsound move.

Argues against TIE. Not really important.

A lot of huge posts here to slog through. Kinda answering things here and there that catch my eye, but I'm getting less out of it than I'd like right now.

Aedan never contributes much of anything on D1. Votes using his system and never changes it unless he's about to be lynched.

Not really. On day 1, wolves don't care who they vote as long as it's not a packmate. So if a suitable switch comes up, it doesn't matter if it's from one villager to another (arguably, it's all the better if it is, because more votes implies fewer likely packmates. The issue I had with those votes is that (assuming happycats is a vill) they basically locked in the only possible lynches being villagers, since any new change would require a massive momentum swing.

Again assumes happy is a villager.

And he's refrained from voting today as well, interestingly enough.

How so?

Very interesting amount of jumpiness there.

I'm pleased to see an effort at analysis from you. This is good that you're putting some thought into it. Not really seeing a lot to work with yet, though.

Not much else interesting.

Vote count 1ish Hours til deadline

Spockyt 5: Deathbywombat (#350) LatinKaiser (#353) Happycats (#379) Al-Aziz (DBW #356 -> #367) Luftwafer (Happycats #389-> No vote #393 -> #416)

Deathbywombat 3: Spockyt (#360) Aedan777 (#374) Wagonlitz (#401)

Aedan777 1: Rovsea (Al-Aziz #345 -> #366)

JermanTK 1: k-59 (#373)

k-59 1: Madchemist (#361)

Wagonlitz 1: Ironhide G1 (#364)

Not voted: @Osteles @JermanTK

Unvote k-59
Vote Jerman

A fine alternate candidate, especially since he hasn't laid down a vote of his own yet.

Apparently why happy views Jerman as being an unlikely candidate (?).

I'm in favor of breaking it. Seer's still alive, and using the TIE while that is true is typically a slight tactical error. I'm also not getting a wolf vibe from wombat.

Anyway, I need to finish cooking dinner.

Unvote Jerman
Vote Spockyt

Neither of you are really convicing me one way or another. Let's make a snipe harder.

Unvote Jerman, Vote Spock

Crap Sorry, spaced voting lol

Vote Luftwafer

(will explain in follow up post)

fail

With three minutes? Taking votes from spcok would just make a TIE more likely.

Still, that was a case to be made a while ago. It's a bit late now.

Perhaps trying to make himself look better — but perhaps trying to protect Jerman.

Vote count final

Spockyt 6: Deathbywombat (#350) LatinKaiser (#353) Happycats (#379) Luftwafer (Happycats #389-> No vote #393 -> #416) Madchemist (k-59 #361-> JermanTK #432-> #456) k-59 (JermanTK #373 ->#466)

Deathbywombat 4: Spockyt (#360) Aedan777 (#374) Wagonlitz (#401) Al-Aziz (DBW #356 -> Spockyt #367-> #435)

Aedan777 1: Rovsea (Al-Aziz #345 -> #366)

Wagonlitz 1: Ironhide G1 (#364)

Luftwafer 1: JermanTK (#468)

Not voted: Osteles

@RB33 will be subbing for Osteles

Any objections?

Day 2/Night 2:

As a fair sheep farmer was brutally murdered, the members of Catan met once more to trade, and more importantly, find out who is responsible for these horrific deaths. Immediately 2 candidates spring up, a loyal British man who was into the wood business and a slightly terrifying weasel type creature who specialized in mining coal. While some wanted to kill both in one day, the local apothecary chose to vote in favor of the brit, and he was subjected to death by woodchipper. No longer would he be rolling 11's (Spockyt the villager is lynched)

In the night, the attacks continued, as a very quiet and odd man named Rovsea was found dead in his home by the sea, the death was reported as poison in his food. (Rovsea the villager is hunted)

Spockyt the villager is lynched
Rovsea the villager is hunted

In light of Spockyt's turning out to be a villager, I see the merits of your case on DBW, Aedan. Here are his posts from yesterday:

Here he basically just lays out his reasons for targeting Spockyt and happycats.

Votes Spockyt again.

Responding to Aziz.

Once again, he's justifying his votes under pressure, but he doesn't seem to see any problem with ardently pushing the Spockyt case above all others (except for his Day 1 vote-switching -- but even then he seemed to prefer Spockyt to happycats).

Arguing with aedan and attacking happycats again. He seems rather fixated on his Day 1 suspects. Sure, he mentions other names occasionally, but his vote doesn't move to reflect that.

Good evidence against Spockyt, but still, wombat is focusing on Spockyt as if he were a fresh bunch of grass in the Australian wild.

He has conveniently highlighted the fact that, despite suggesting other candidates, he never strayed from his case against Spockyt.

Here he accuses aedan and me, yet he is careful to clarify that we should only pay attention to this "if [he is] wrong about Spockyt." So committed is he to lynching Spockyt that he can't even defend himself without invoking the name of his target. As for his actual case against me or aedan, it pretty much boils down to "LK didn't switch his vote from Avatar to happycats" -- never mind that he had earlier claimed that the players voting happycats were "suspicious/weak analysers" or had failed to provide adequate justification. Apparently, wombat wanted me to switch to happycats, but he also thought that the case against happycats was flawed, which doesn't make sense. Wombat's argument for investigating aedan is primarily a reflection of his own stubborn disagreement with aedan over whether his nemisis Spockyt should be lynched or whether a more balanced approach to voting is better.

Now he's just grasping at straws. Whenever some says "What I did might not have been sensible, but I did it so we should forget about it," it usually means that they're trying to pile the bullcrap high enough to cover their own wolfish mistakes.

Again, just having responed to other players' posts doesn't automatically absolve you of all blame.
Apologies if I missed anything; it's pretty late, and I need to get some sleep.

Vote deathbywombat

I'm inclined to go once more for one of the unduly quiet ones today I've seen precious little out of Ironhide, Jerman, LatinKaiser, and Osteles/RB.

Vote Ironhide

I think he's said the least of the bunch (besides RB/Osteles, who just subbed and should be given a chance to say something, as unlikely as he is to make use of same.).

The vote that is supposed to make Ironhide an unlikely wolf.

Fixed that.

Hope she is ok.

OK today is TIE day and also the last chance to get rid of some dead weigth.
I think we should look at Osteles/RB since that role only has 3 game related posts in the entire game (4 if you count that late spockyt vote from RB)

Random vote.

Two analysis posts.

So that role has made just a single vote---and that was a random one. Then there of course is that late vote, but you cannot give that too much weight since it was post deadline; I also noted how RB said he only wanted to vote for Spock since he had the most votes...
So for being an almost completely blank slate.

Vote RB33

In response to me:

Agreed, looks like two villagers shouting at each other right now, but if they want to keep it up, maybe one of them will slip.

Funny, happy. It's almost like neither the case on wombat or DBW was convincing to you, either. It's almost like neither of them were very good cases.

The problem is that today is day 3 and lest we catch a wolf today tomorrow will be the last day and having a virtually blank slate on the last day is really dangerous; hence why it is a good idea on TIE day to TIE a blank slate and somebody else.

Advocates lynching RB.

Yeesh. Who died? Quiet as a graveyard in here. Well, I'll try to spark some activity:

I see your point, I was just hoping RB33 would come out and provide some analysis and thought to the discussion so he wouldn't be as much of a blank slate. Five hours later and no contribution from him makes me far more willing to tie him today.

I agree that Jerman has been acting odd, but I haven't seen anything that makes me think that he's doing anything more than being himself. Early day throwaways and a general refusal to "join people in lynching a villager" seems to be his default mode in these games. It's a frustrating one and it makes him seem suspicious, but I'm not sure it's indicative of him being a wolf. I might have missed something though, so I'm willing to listen. I wouldn't mind tying him, but I think there are better options.

Currently I'm feeling Ironhide (One of the quiet ones and got overly defensive the when he did show up yesterday) and RB33 (has subbed in and done nothing, despite being obviously on since he's running the Micro right now), but I'm willing to see others pushed up. For now I'll

Vote Ironhide

Until I see something I like better.

Also, soft reminder to any JL members, if you plan to do an outing today, please consider doing it earlier than usual so that Europeans can see and react to it and we make sure we get the requisite vote swing to get the outed wolf lynched. Just pointing it out since a few players seem to be thrown off by the late deadline.

Vote Count, About 3.5 hours to deadline

Ironhide G1: 3
al-Aziz [515]
madchemist [526]
happycats517 [536]

deathbywombat: 2
aedan777 [497]
LatinKaiser [521]

LatinKaiser: 1
deathbywombat [522]

RB33: 1
Wagonlitz [531]

JermanTK: 1
k-59 [534]

Not voted: Ironhide G1, JermanTK, RB33, Luftwafer

I actually forgot I was playing.

Vote Ironhide

Because I have no idea who to vote for.

I can change, if someone has a better player.

Silly me. I forgot the other reason for voting for LatinKaiser:

JL Announcement
LatinKaiser is a scanned wolf.​

A bit early for an outing, but hopefully the Europeans get a chance to put their votes in.

Then the outing. Obviously everyone votes LK.

I can see what you mean by Ironhide being a less likely wolf, but it's possible MC would have switched off later. And the Jerman vote was a throwaway, and did not place Jerman in danger.

It is possible that MC did not vote me because no one did.

I find it suspicious that MC continues to assume that happycats is a villager. In companion to this, I fully expect to be lynched today; you should investigate happycats for his tone, the way his case on me implicitely assumes his own villager status, and the way he has someone eliminated everyone from contention except a villager. His case is shaky and expects unreasonable ability to detect and vote wolves. Wagon's vote on him was hours from deadline, and MC directed a counter to happy being run up. I do not care if this is incriminating to me as well.

The other candidate I would try would be Jerman due to the fact that he was never in danger by MC's vote and that MC switched from him to another candidate.

I was scanned by the Seer two days ago. He contacted me, calling the PM "The 5th JL". I have already posted the PMs. Please do not lynch me, but I expect that you will.

On the case against me: not only is it unreasonable, it is also absurd. I was not trying to protect happy. I was trying to attack k-59 for changing the lynch from avatar to another candidate.

 

[al-Aziz]

Relevance fallacy. Your vocalness about DBW and D3 has nothing to do with LK being outed. That was all k-59 and DBW.

No, I am not arguing that that was a causatory relationship.

You assume? Don't you remember sending in the order, or did Wagon do it? Also interesting that's all you talked about. No suggestions on who might be the last wolf, no discussion on players, no real attempt to aid the JL beyond the fact that you were cleared. You had the time to respond to it. Was a "Hey, X might be worth a look" too much?

Well, it's true.

Since you asked for me to be patient with you, I'll oblige. Please read that post again. Notice that it contains 5 points. Please read each point individually. You might notice that each point refers to a different player, specifically the 5 players that weren't outed. Now you also might notice that I have also included my thoughts on how well this group fits with the known pack members. Now you might continue to notice, if you're really good, that the list contains four people who have reasons that they don't fit in the pack and one person that doesn't. Now I know you're familiar with Occam's Razor. Apply that to this list. Who is the most likely wolf? You? And now you understand why this list exists. So please, stop bothering being snarky and providing us with a cacophony of sounds that signify nothing and actually attempt to contribute.

I was being really sarcastic about myself there.

But seriously, I know I'm a villager, so it has to be someone else. I know that I'll probably be lynched today, so it's either
1) happycats
2) Jerman
3) Ironhide
Jerman is not a bad candidate, because MC's non-dangerous vote on him was removed. As mentioned, Ironhide is a subpar candidate because of his being voted by MC (and by happy if happy is a wolf). And on happycats:
Let's look at D1. Again. *sighs*
So MC and Spock are TIEd 3 to 3 (because happy voted MC). So MC suggests a voteswitch. I suggest avatar. k-59 suggests happycats. MC says he is open to both. Then LK chooses avatar; LK, MC, I, and k-59 switch to avatar. k-59 switches back to happy; Wagonlitz accompanies him, claiming TIE. MC argues against it, and DBW follows. I try to persecute k-59.

It is notable that happy did not suspect MC for doing exactly the same thing I did — trying to direct votes back to avatar. This, combined with LK's choice of avatar over happycats, and MC's actual action, causes me to think that happy is a more likely wolf.

You asked who you would have voted on D1, I provided an alternative. The fact that you didn't vote MC in itself is not suspicious. The fact is that you didn't when you definitely could have. I'm sorry, I'm not playing with perfect knowledge of how every player acts and why they act that way. I'm left to make assumptions based on my knowledge and create hypotheses to explain behavior. One hypothesis is that you protected MC by voting Spockyt and later avatar. You've accused several people involved in that switch of trying to save Spockyt or MC, so don't be surprised when it's thrown back in your face.

This is more complicated than the other hypothesis. If you apply Occam's Razor here it says that I voted Spock because I wanted to consolidate. You also did not vote MC at that point.

The separate point — the voteswitch — is a valid point against me, unfortunately.

DO YOU READ?! You've replied to several posts where I've covered this and I've included it in my responses. Wagon almost killed me D1 and I put a dangerous vote on MC (and MC also endorsed me as a vote switch candidate when k-59 voted me. Too lazy to find it, but his response was "meh, I'm okay with this too", even though he easily could have protected me by saying he wanted to focus the switch on one candidate or something). But sure, yeah, Wagon, MC, and I were playing a game of "Kill Your Packmate"/s.

See above. I know I cannot be a wolf, even if you do not, and I know that Ironhide, as you have said, is more unlikely, and I rank Jerman about equal to you in probability. Which reminds me:

Unvote Ironhide, Vote Happycats

 

[al-Aziz]

Ironhide is kinda acting weird. I have to say he's acting wolfish.

There are 4 of us.

Happycats is cleared by the Justice League, or so it looks like it. I doubt he's a wolf.

I know I'm not a wolf.

So the question is Al-Aziz or Ironhide, and quite frankly, as I said, Ironhide is acting weird. But as Happycats said, Al-Aziz fits well into a pack.

I think this is going to be a hard one.

I am the one who claims to have been cleared by the Seer.

 

[happycats517]

I find it suspicious that MC continues to assume that happycats is a villager. In companion to this, I fully expect to be lynched today; you should investigate happycats for his tone, the way his case on me implicitely assumes his own villager status, and the way he has someone eliminated everyone from contention except a villager. His case is shaky and expects unreasonable ability to detect and vote wolves. Wagon's vote on him was hours from deadline, and MC directed a counter to happy being run up. I do not care if this is incriminating to me as well.

The other candidate I would try would be Jerman due to the fact that he was never in danger by MC's vote and that MC switched from him to another candidate.

I was scanned by the Seer two days ago. He contacted me, calling the PM "The 5th JL". I have already posted the PMs. Please do not lynch me, but I expect that you will.

On the case against me: not only is it unreasonable, it is also absurd. I was not trying to protect happy. I was trying to attack k-59 for changing the lynch from avatar to another candidate.

Uh, if you get lynched today and you're a villager the game ends unless the wolf is dumb enough to not set up a hunt.

Also, my tone? That's what you're arguing for?

My case on you goes beyond what happened on D1, but reading is obviously hard for you. And I've seen nothing from you yet that disproves my villager status. Again, if you want to make me out to be a wolf, explain D1. I put a dangerous vote on MC, had MC endorse k-59 going after me, and Wagonlitz put a dangerous vote on me that nearly killed me if it wasn't for DBW and a late snipe. Also Wagon's vote on me was hours before deadline, but we also have a late deadline that many Europeans would be asleep. Also MC did not direct a counter, he said he didn't like that I was run up. And you don't care if this is incriminating to you as well? So you know your case is shit.

And no my case doesn't expect an unreasonable ability to detect and vote wolves. HAVE YOU BEEN READING?!

Uh yeah, he sort of was in danger.

Why would he call the PM the 5th JL?

Again, reading comprehension

 

[al-Aziz]

Oh yes, how silly of me, I missed the part of my guide to werewolf were it said Aziz doesn't make strawmen. But really, your best defense is to claim your perfect enough that you'd never allow a straw man to slip through when making an argument?

What I meant was that, if it seemed that I was creating strawmen intentionally, I was probably misunderstanding your argument instead.

Oh right. I forgot to read the other part of my werewolf guide where it says Aziz was an AI created to be the perfect WW player, after each game she analyzes her performance and perfectly adapts to it, leaving her impervious to being fooled by the same tricks. Oh wait, sorry, that was Wagonlitz's entry. So you try not to make the same mistakes twice. Doesn't mean you don't.

Sorry, but no. This requires that I think of a plan, somehow not realize this exact same plan failed last time, and yet still implement it. I also don't think you're a villager, and when you lynch me today you will realize that I am.

One minute. Is today the last day? Oh crap. Yes, today is the last day. Oh crap. Ohhh crap. Nevermind. Everyone needs to vote happy or Jerman today.

 

[happycats517]

This is more complicated than the other hypothesis. If you apply Occam's Razor here it says that I voted Spock because I wanted to consolidate. You also did not vote MC at that point.

Um, because I wasn't playing at that point? I literally voted MC the moment I subbed.