Werewolf Lite CCCLI: Werewolves of Catan

[k-59]

Yes, I thought it might have been an exception.

Well at least you tried to vote. Care to explain why you voted for a villager who was already two votes ahead? (before anyone says anything I know I'm the one who put him two votes up.)

 

[RB33]

Well at least you tried to vote. Care to explain why you voted for a villager who was already two votes ahead. (before anyone says anything I know I'm the one who put him two votes up.)

Just voted on the most voted to not miss out on the vote.

 

[Rovsea]

I hate

you all.

 

[Spockyt]

Well, that was different. I only woke up 5 minutes before deadline. By the time I had read the thread, I was dead. I don't think I am breaking ghost rules by saying this. EDIT: I did.

Sub please.

 

[k-59]

---

Sub please.

No. Revealing why a dead player did something is the definition of breaking ghost rules.

 

[Rovsea]

No. Revealing why a dead player did something is the definition of breaking ghost rules.

I joined the game because I thought it would be awesome and I would win.

Then I got hunted.

God, I'm such a rebel.

 

[happycats517]

stuff

Uh yeah, that part that comes after "I don't think I am breaking ghost rules by saying this" is definitely breaking ghost rules. Couldn't be clearer in fact.

 

[Spockyt]

No. Revealing why a dead player did something is the definition of breaking ghost rules.

Thank you. I have now removed it.

 

[Audren]

Neat! I haven't been hunted so early in forever! (Never been Night 0 hunted, though).

I hate

you all.

Two different types of people.

 

[al-Aziz]

1. k-59
2. Deathbywombat
3. Aedan777
5. Ironhide G1 as the Papal States
6. Madchemist
8. JermanTK
11. Wagonlitz
13. LatinKaiser as sheep
14. Osteles subbed for RB33
15. Brovahkiin as ore subbed for HappyCats
16. Al-Aziz
17. Luftwafer
Well, here are the people still alive. Ironhide, Jerman, and RB33 are difficult to get reads on. I am suspicious of deathbywombat and MC, for reasons expressed yesterday. I will reread and summarize aedan and DBW's arguments.

In case someone doesn't get it, my use of "great job" in my previous post was sarcastic. Since apparently there appears to be trouble on that front from last game.

No, this is just a post facto justification. I call Crovax.

 

[Rovsea]

Two different types of people.

Audren is quite a comedic fellow. Also, I'm sure everybody knows that I don't really hate them. It would take something much worse than being hunted, once, in a werewolf game for me to hate somebody.

 

[al-Aziz]

Thank you. I have now removed it.

Uh, no you haven't.

I joined the game because I thought it would be awesome and I would win.

Then I got hunted.

God, I'm such a rebel.

Yeah, Rovsea, stop being such a confederate.

 

[Audren]

Audren is quite a comedic fellow. Also, I'm sure everybody knows that I don't really hate them. It would take something much worse than being hunted, once, in a werewolf game for me to hate somebody.

Like being hunted twice in a werewolf game?

 

[Spockyt]

Uh, no you haven't.

Yeah, Rovsea, stop being such a confederate.

Well, that was different. I only woke up 5 minutes before deadline. By the time I had read the thread, I was dead. I don't think I am breaking ghost rules by saying this. EDIT: I did.

Sub please.

I did.

 

[al-Aziz]

So: DBW.

For reference, the posts we are referencing are:

Ooh, chess! I would also be up for a tournament/game with all challengers. I used chess.com to play people a while back - still need to dig up my account. Was an OK blitz player, could have been decent in regular but always got impatient/never learned the openings. Weak beginning/endgame, strong mid-game.

http://www.chess.com/

Ah, and voting!

Vote Spockyt

He could have said something like, "Because all these things that I know suck", but he didn't.

So the case on me is 'people are quiet, therefore the wolves are happy about the candidates' and 'happycats voted madchemist making him one of the top two candidates' therefore 'happycats is a wolf'. Wow, leap of logic if I ever saw one. Not really much defense I could give. I had already received a couple of votes, so pushing up MC and having both him and Spockyt above me gave me a little early breathing room, plus it kept the focus on a few candidates rather than trying to make a six person tie where everyone has two votes and it's ultimately meaningless. Is it great reasoning? No, but like I said, there wasn't much behind it.

Anyway, since I don't really have a choice right now:

Unvote MadChemist, Vote AvatarOfKhaine

Also, interesting note, all the people who jumped on to me did so after the switch to AvatarOfKhaine. Perhaps the switch struck a wolf nerve? Probably just wishful thinking on my part though.

I still like Spockyt as a candidate, but I like Avatar as a candidate better than happycats, and the quick runup on happycats bugs me.

Unvote Spockyt
Vote AvatarofKhaine

He states: he likes Spock, he likes avatar over happy, and the run up of happy bugs him. I accuse him of mindlessly following people (including me) and of having no reason to think Spock is a good candidate.

Alright, time to get inside the wombat's mind. My day 1 votes, unlike certain others I could name, always have a purpose behind them. In this case, I voted for Spockyt and kept my vote on him because:

1) The wolves had all the advantages on day 1 voting. In order for the villagers to get a wolf on day 1, they essentially have to rely on a wolf making a mistake or getting very lucky. So I wanted to vote for someone who could possibly be pressured into making a mistake and outing himself. Ergo, my vote on spockyt, a comparatively inexperienced player, which was the second vote and put him into actual contention. Which leads to...

Aedan points out that this is basically placing a vote on a newb because they are a newb.

2) The inartfully expressed vote switch 12 hours early, off Luft to bro/happycats. Spockty was jumpy very early.

Fair enough.

3) The fact that people switched OFF spockty first and so quickly. For a time, he and madchemist were tied at 3 votes. Villager madchemist is one of the best late game analysts in the game. Yet for some reason, 2 people (LatinKaiser/Al-Aziz) start switching off Spockyt onto Avatar, leaving Avatar, madchemist, and later bro/happycats as potential targets.

Madchemist also did this. He orchestrated it. As mentioned before, this was mostly a coincidence. If voting avatar and thus moving off spock was a sign of wolves, as you imply, why would you ever want to vote with the people you suspect are moving off Spock, thus making him a good candidate, and who are likelier wolves?

4) This is admittedly somewhat meta, but Spockty won the last lite (as a wolf after I had targeted him), and I try to target players who I consider comparatively likely wolves on day 1 AND players who haven't been hunted early in previous games, whenever possible.

Aedan points out this is meta.

As for switching to Avatar, my reasoning was as follows:

1) Bro/Happycats was initially voted by people I considered suspicious/relatively weaker analysts - spockyt and Ironhide. The other 3 people to vote for happycats (Rovsea/K-59 initially/Wagonlitz) gave no real justification for their votes for happycats.

Wasn't avatar also initially voted by people you considered suspicious because we were moving off Spock? (E.g., me and Latin.)

2) Avatar was fairly inactive, only making relatively content-free posts. Happycats was more active. Given the choice, I prefer keeping around active players to inactive ones.

This is an adequate reason.

Happy, I wasn't, by the way, one of the people actually countering the votes onto you. You were suspicious because I got suspicious of k-59. You should also be suspicious because avatar was actually protecting you.

While there are problems with his original reasons, it does not seem to mark him as more of a wolf, because this is in response to asking why he thought Spock is a better candidate. However, #3 does not make sense.

I'm aware of his post, but it isn't that great a defense.


Half of his reasons for voting spockyt (2 and 3) occurred after he voted spockyt, so those can be thrown out immediately. Reason 1 boils down to voting a newb for being a newb. Reason 4 is meta. Day 1 votes are usually baseless, so the lack of sufficient reason is no issue, the issue arises from his efforts to make his vote into some grand case, that continues to be applicable.

Spock's reaction, however, made it still-relevant.

His reasons for preferring Avatar are also somewhat lacking. Reason 1 has two parts. First he didn't think the people voting him were good enough to find a wolf, ignoring any merits to their case on that basis alone. Second he felt the others gave no justification, ignoring K-59's reasons to vote Happycats. Avatar being inactive is decent enough reason though.

But he didn't say anything about this at the time he made the votes, but long after. Plenty of time to make up whatever story he wanted, while giving nothing in the heat of the moment.

So if anything I find his defense more incriminating than just the case against him.

In hindsight, this case seems less compelling. It could have been a split-second thought process.

The part that I find dubious is the contradiction where he voted avatar despite being suspicious of the people who switched onto avatar. However, it makes sense when you realize it was, due to k-59's vote, a choice between happy, who he says was a worse candidate, and avatar.

So, assuming I get lynched, let's look at possibilities for future wolves, which I will probably be right about and you will ignore.
If I'm wrong about spockyt, LatinKaiser and aedan seem like good choices - aedan for instigating a wasted day 2 tie under the guise of lynching 2 supposedly good candidates, LatinKaiser for joining the voteswitch - and remarking "probably not" when I asked whether we wanted a tie 2 minutes to deadline without actually switching votes.
If I'm right about Spockyt, madchemist seems like a possible solid choice - 3+ hours from deadline, he asked for a vote switch from himself/spockty, and lo and behold, 2 new candidates rapidly arose, one of which spockyt switched off of to save his skin. (happycats and avatar)
The quieter voters - Ironhide, Osteles, Jerman et al... also might be worth exploring.

Totally missing the point. My vote on spockyt was deliberately done to try to spark a reaction, which it seemed to do, and I rolled with it today. Not everyone likes to waste their day one vote on an asinine and completely unhelpful strategy of random voting. And considering I guessed spockty's allegiance early in the last lite (and luft day 1 on an earlier lite, I might add), I figured the same ploy was worth a try again. Time will tell if my assessment was right, assuming someone doesn't snipe last second.

Adequate.

I think that aedan's case was nowhere as good as I thought it was, which leaves us back on square one. The case on madchemist is also less compelling due to Spock's innocence. Which means that trying to run up one of the quiet ones would be the most helpful.

Vote Ironhide

 

[al-Aziz]

I did.

Editing in "No, I did" is not removing the offending post. It still includes too much ghost information. You should delete the post and all extant copies.

 

[aedan777]

Conversly the other player I found suspicious is Deathbywombat and he doesn't fit as a packmate for Spockyt. In fact part of what made Deathbywombat stick out to me was his tunnel vision on Spockyt, having voted him both days and claimed he had good reasons for it. But the main reason he sticks out to me is that he created a tie between Avatar and Happycats, then asked if a tie was wanted, to later claim he wanted to avoid a tie. His reason on Avatar to begin with is lacking, just saying he prefered him to Happycats without explanation, and then says Happycats was run-up too fast, when if anything Avatar was the one run-up fast. The votes on Brovahkiin/Happycats were accumulated over the course of the day, and even the votes "in response" to avatar being run-up were spread over twenty minutes and one of them (K-59) had only unvoted Happycats to begin with because of a misunderstanding. Also I don't know how you prefer the "case" on Avatar, since there never existed one, it was just a random vote switch. There was at least a case on Happycats, weak though it was.

The biggest issue I end up having here is that the two likely wolves don't fit with each other, since both are voting each other today. I think I prefer Deathbywombat as a candidate though.

Vote Deathbywombat

Ok, since apparently no one is going to read this unless I dig it up again, I'm bringing back my original case on Deathbywombat, most of which he has continuously ignored.

 

[al-Aziz]

Aedan — sorry for not bringing that up; I meant to... I just didn't.
He *has* addressed most of the points you mentioned. However:

But the main reason he sticks out to me is that he created a tie between Avatar and Happycats, then asked if a tie was wanted, to later claim he wanted to avoid a tie.

We don't want a tie today, correct?

I don't really see why this is so suspicious. Does this make him a more likely wolf? Why would a wolf want to do that?

 

[aedan777]

Aedan — sorry for not bringing that up; I meant to... I just didn't.
He *has* addressed most of the points you mentioned. However:


I don't really see why this is so suspicious. Does this make him a more likely wolf? Why would a wolf want to do that?

He created the tie between Avatar and Happycats, then said that. The tie only needed to be broken because of his vote.

 

[al-Aziz]

He created the tie between Avatar and Happycats, then said that. The tie only needed to be broken because of his vote.

And? His vote was >30 minutes before deadline; it's an acceptable tactic to see who will snipe where. A few minutes before deadline, he realizes no one has yet sniped, and says this. I don't see why this would make him a more likely wolf.