Werewolf CXIX - Occupy Paradox

[randakar]

Might as well come forward and give a little bit of a chance. I told Seen that I scanned Tai as a wolf, and even though I was unsure Tai was a wolf, the Yakman switch seemed strange. Seeing that Tai was a villager, and I scanned him as a wolf, I must be insane. That being said, it should be noted that night 0 seen was scanned as a villager. Therefore, seen is a wolf. It should also be noted that I was roleblocked last night.

Great. Trainwreck? How about "catastrophe", instead? If Boris's story is true I bet those doctors told Seen about their roles and got hunted for it.
So now we have two dead docs, a confirmation that we have at least 5, possibly 6 wolves, and possibly a 2nd insane seer that's about to get hunted.

I really don't know what this "designed for an active village" nonsense is but I don't see how the village has any influence over the outcome here. Analysis sure doesn't factor into it. The only way we could have ended up not lynching Taiisataii is if a significant portion of the village had believed the outing to be fake - which it wasn't - or taiisataii to be innocent *anyway*. Given how many people already thought him guilty yesterday I'm not surprised it ended up like this.
Even I followed the damn thing, and I was the person who pointed out how stupid running TST in the first place was on day 1..

Some, yes. But being a seer/being role blocked is pretty easy to lie about.

And if Boris was the seer, why didn't the wolves just hunt him and get rid of the potential issue? Seen could have easily lied about who gave him the information if he was a wolf, it didn't have to be Boris.

If we want to trust Boris, sure, an outing is an outing, but at the same time (from ciryandor) the wolves could easily get parity today, and if we choose the wrong person, then game over.

Maybe it wasn't Seen's packs turn to hunt? That doesn't explain where the two simultaneous hunts on docs come from, though. Aside from that I think the rules say packs hunt every day ..
Maybe they thought the roleblocked insane seer wasn't as important as the two docs and the bodyguard?

Lord knows. We surely won't know what's going on there until we lynch either Seen or Boris.

But really. I seriously don't know how the village is supposed to have a shot with 3 hunts against our one lynch added to the insane seer business.
The only way I can see us win at this point is if there's more than one pack and they have to eliminate each other to win.

This sounds like a scam. It is just as likely that you are a wolf who has figured out how to use the seer rules to fool the village into doing your bidding.

.. or maybe the wolves knew the insane seer would say this and decided to simply go after him to get parity today.
If parity really is that close, all they need is one or two people to believe them, and their voting block will do the rest.

Don't forget that Seen was likely to be a dead man *anyway*, given that he outed a villager as a wolf. And if it is Boris who is the wolf, then hunting Seen would not even have helped due to Seen telling everyone that he told someone else the name he got ..

*sigh*

 

[Yakman]

vote randakar

 

[Yakman]

unvote randakar
vote thefreeman

 

[Taiisatai64]

This is a twisted web.

 

[Falc]

I suspect not. Also, Seen was a little hesitant to make this outing all grand and stuff.

I'll fess up, I blocked you. It was 80% random, since I'd also voted you earlier in the day.

 

[reis91]

This makes it a bit more probable that Boris is indeed a seer...

 

[Taiisatai64]

I feel that this game was more of a "Lite" than a "Big".

In other news, I would prefer it if people referred to me as "Tai" for short, rather than "TST", because TST sounds like some kind of abbreviated mental syndrome.

 

[Falc]

Maybe it wasn't Seen's packs turn to hunt? That doesn't explain where the two simultaneous hunts on docs come from, though. Aside from that I think the rules say packs hunt every day ..

There's no way we can have two packs. Packs need to eliminate one another and that would put any possible parity a few more days away. No, pretty sure we have a single 5-or-6 man pack. Doctors and/or other roleblocks stopped one hunt in previous nights, or perhaps the wolves doubled up on some person.

So anyway, we lost 4 people and are now down to, at best, 8 goodies and 5 baddies. Like Ciry said, parity is one single day away now.

 

[Kingepyon]

I feel that this game was more of a "Lite" than a "Big".

In other news, I would prefer it if people referred to me as "Tai" for short, rather than "TST", because TST sounds like some kind of abbreviated mental syndrome.

Is that where the TST is coming from? I was so confused about that.

 

[Kingepyon]

There's no way we can have two packs. Packs need to eliminate one another and that would put any possible parity a few more days away. No, pretty sure we have a single 5-or-6 man pack. Doctors and/or other roleblocks stopped one hunt in previous nights, or perhaps the wolves doubled up on some person.

So anyway, we lost 4 people and are now down to, at best, 8 goodies and 5 baddies. Like Ciry said, parity is one single day away now.

I agree. Parity wouldn't be a day away with smaller packs. So either we have 2 packs of 5 or 6 running around (but it doesn't fit with the packs hunt every night rule) or 1 pack of 5 or 6. 1 pack of 5 or 6 seems to be the most likely.

 

[randakar]

1 pack .. let's say that seen is a wolf, that we lynch him, and that there are 5 wolves. (and 8 villagers). The best case scenario.
Then tonight 2 villagers will likely die (4 wolves left, we have no more docs and the single remaining bodyguard can only protect Yakman). Bringing us to 10 people - 4 wolves and 6 villagers.
Then the day after, best case we lynch another wolf. Bringing us down to 3 wolves and 4 vilagers.
Then the day after, again the best case: Another wolf. Bringing us down to 2 wolves and 2 villagers.
There you go, parity in 3 days, and no way for the village to stop it save having crazy luck lynching multiple wolves.

Anyone disagree? No?

In that case:
I surrender

I can't win, so whatever.

 

[Taiisatai64]

Randakar is correct. This is absurd.

 

[Ciryandor]

All business with respect to balance in this game will be dealt with in an end-of-game post. I did specifically warn that the current WW meta where votes >>> activity would be handing the wolves a win on a silver platter. I am SICKENED at the lack of participation by a lot of players.

Edit:

I am giving away the information that there ARE 5 WOLVES in this set-up. I would have said parity is inevitable if it was 6 wolves. Also, THERE ARE CLUES TO THE WOLVES' IDENTITIES IN MY UPDATES.

It is currently a Lynch Wrong, Village Loses Situation. This calculation is NOT factoring in any blessed townies (which take 2 KP to kill) that may still be alive OR TIEs that can kill 2 wolves at one shot.

It is Day 3. Day 0 was the election, Day 1 had the Sedracus mislynch, Day 2 had the Taii outing.

 

[Yakman]

I feel that this game was more of a "Lite" than a "Big".

In other news, I would prefer it if people referred to me as "Tai" for short, rather than "TST", because TST sounds like some kind of abbreviated mental syndrome.

or a venereal disease.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

What day's voting is taking place right now? It's hard to tell without the front page up to date or headings on the updates.

 

[randakar]

Day 1 we lynched sedracus, day 2 we lynched taiisataii. We are now on day 3.

edit: Drat. Cyriandor ruined my plan to flush out the wolf pack by making it seem they had already won ..

Fine.
vote seen

 

[randakar]

I did specifically warn that the current WW meta where votes >>> activity would be handing the wolves a win on a silver platter. I am SICKENED at the lack of participation by a lot of players.

Calm down, please. I know it sucks having the balance of your game being questioned as a GM, but getting emotional over it won't really help. At best interference will just make things worse.
As for the whole "votes >>> activity" thing, personally I really don't know what I could have done differently here. But that is something for *after* the game..

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Day 1 we lynched sedracus, day 2 we lynched taiisataii. We are now on day 3.

...

I don't care how active anyone was... If all the wolves need to do is survive two lynches and they're home free, it's their's to lose. Hm.

But yes, this can wait till post game.

 

[Ciryandor]

My apologies. Did not realize what you were doing. :rofl:

Also, my mini-rant is directed towards the lack of activity by village members overall, not to any appearances that this is becoming a train-wreck of a game. I do have an idea or two for resolving that though.

 

[Taiisatai64]

My apologies. Did not realize what you were doing. :rofl:

Also, my mini-rant is directed towards the lack of activity by village members overall, not to any appearances that this is becoming a train-wreck of a game. I do have an idea or two for resolving that though.

Such as more players? Outside of your control, I know, but having the same number of wolves but more players would go a long way to solving the imbalance. Which reminds me of a Mafia game a friend of mine was telling me about that had over 120 players....