Werewolf CXIII : The Springtime of Nations

[Bagricula]

So I am disinclined to truck much with people's statements as to their or each other's roles, particularly without tangible proof like delivering a baddie.

And while I have my suspicions and puzzlement around both drxav and randakar...

...can anyone explain to me in simple hypothesis testing terms why they are definitively the best lynches informationally when we've got such a vast pool of un-examined subjects?

I.e.

If drxav is goodie, then we know [x]
If drxav is baddie, then we know [y]
If randakar is goodie, then we know [z]
If randakar is baddie, then we know [r]

Personally, I'm disappointed we haven't remained disciplined around using 3-way ties and have instead latched onto the most salient puzzle...

...there's a parable for researchers, don't be like the drunk who looks for his keys in the lamplight because it isn't dark there; just because it is light, doesn't mean the keys are there.

Similarly, pay attention to what you don't know you don't know as well as what you know and what you don't know...Werewolf is good because there really is a quite comprehensible finite number of options to be exhaustively cataloged and explored.

 

[TheExecuter]

If randakar is a goodie, then we can suspect that the scan results provided by drxav are likely to be correct (though there is a small chance that they could be fabricated), and a proper cultist hunting JL could be formed.

If randakar is a baddie, then drxav's 'outing' as the priest is much diminished in value, as it may not be true at all.

True that we won't learn anything definitively though...we would learn where to look for wolves in the day 1 voting analysis.

If you want a three-way run-up, then we need at least one more candidate though. And I haven't seen any analysis as to why esemesas has been run up at all...except that he is NOT randakar, drxav, LS, or myself.

 

[Vainglory]

If you want a three-way run-up, then we need at least one more candidate though. And I haven't seen any analysis as to why esemesas has been run up at all...except that he is NOT randakar, drxav, LS, or myself.

Because he moved to create a 4 way tie with a 5 way tie in the offing, for absolutely no reason. I have been in a waffle pack with Ese once, and that is very Ese-waffle.

 

[Bagricula]

If you want a three-way run-up, then we need at least one more candidate though. And I haven't seen any analysis as to why esemesas has been run up at all...except that he is NOT randakar, drxav, LS, or myself.

Esemesas is being run-up for apparently trying to create a 4-way tie.

I personally think at this early stage (day 2) we should try to at least include 1 player from the mass of players who haven't done anything unusual or remarkable (by my analysis posted earlier this is 53% of the living population).

Otherwise, we just get stuck in a path-dependent quest to turn over every stone in the tiny niche we randomly started in. A more robust search strategy combines incremental local searches with occasional global jumps. Hence my tri-partite division of the recommended run-ups into (1) previously run-up, (2) suspicious behavior, and (3) unremarkable mystery.

Right now though we're only focusing on (2)...which surprises me because it seems mostly focused on the mystery of the leaderlynch and a lot of language people are throwing around. I want to analyze off of actual actions, and I don't think we've observed enough actions to understand the leaderlynch yet.

 

[TheExecuter]

Because he moved to create a 4 way tie with a 5 way tie in the offing, for absolutely no reason. I have been in a waffle pack with Ese once, and that is very Ese-waffle.

Ah yes...I remember that now.

Right now though we're only focusing on (2)...which surprises me because it seems mostly focused on the mystery of the leaderlynch and a lot of language people are throwing around. I want to analyze off of actual actions, and I don't think we've observed enough actions to understand the leaderlynch yet.

Possibly not.

 

[XenomorphII]

Vote tamius

Why? Because he isn't acting like himself (constantly calling for ties, voting himself repeatedly, etc.) so he must be a baddie of some sort.

Also because I don't know what to think of all this other mess, except that killing off anyone claiming to be priest at this point, without something pretty solid on them could only hurt the village, because cultists seem a fair bit more important to this game then they normally are. So I'm not real keen on killing drxav or LS at this point. Though I wouldn't be trusting either of them to a particularly large degree either.

There is some merit to killing randy because it would clear up things a little, but if he is really a brutal villager its just going to hurt the village more cause his target will likely be a villager as well. Also what are the chances that both the first and second leader are baddies? Though his behavior is certainly off, I'm not sure that necessarily means he is bad, he just may have wanted to go for a riskier game. Also there is no guarantee that if drxav is lying that randy is in on it, he could be a convenient patsy for drxav to throw under the bus to give him more credibility if things go south.

At any rate that's my 2 cents. And now just to be a jerk I'm going to go, lol, drxav, I'm not a villager, I'm the dreaded wolf sorcerer hunter leader brutal blessed one man pack eater of babies, so clearly you lie. (Note this is just a joke, please don't kill me for it, cause that would be stupid.) But yeah I'm a villager so that's true at least.

 

[AOK. 11]

There's a fly in my soup. Which of you is responsible?

It is I, your nemesis.

 

[TheExecuter]

Vote tamius

There is some merit to killing randy because it would clear up things a little, but if he is really a brutal villager its just going to hurt the village more cause his target will likely be a villager as well. Also what are the chances that both the first and second leader are baddies? Though his behavior is certainly off, I'm not sure that necessarily means he is bad, he just may have wanted to go for a riskier game.

Best evidence so far in randakar's favor...

Hmm...I like your analysis...

Unvote randakar
Vote tamius23

 

[Bagricula]

Well past my bedtime...see you all in the morning...hopefully with the update posted by our Establishment...

...I look forward to learning from the words and actions of my wiser and more experienced WW elders. Big is scary and complicated, and my processing power is puny.

 

[tamius23]

Vote tamius

Why? Because he isn't acting like himself (constantly calling for ties, voting himself repeatedly, etc.) so he must be a baddie of some sort.

I've gone off ties recently, (read the ongoing Lite?) and I haven't voted myself in ages. Not since Big CIX. It certainly doesn't mean I'm a baddie (I'm not).

 

[XenomorphII]

I've gone off ties recently, (read the ongoing Lite?) and I haven't voted myself in ages. Not since Big CIX. It certainly doesn't mean I'm a baddie (I'm not).

I still feel like you are being suspicious. I didn't even realize you were in this game which is unusual because usually you stand out like a whole lot.

 

[tamius23]

I still feel like you are being suspicious. I didn't even realize you were in this game which is unusual because usually you stand out like a whole lot.

Normally by Day 2 I've been run up at random and forced to post my role PM (I've decided I'll stop doing that, too).

and my processing power is puny.

Another excellent argument to take out your brain and put it in a roleplaying robot as esemesas suggested a while ago. We'll call you bagbot.

 

[Sedracus]

Unvote DrXav

Vote Tamius23

Why? Read the analysis by Xenomorph, and right as soon as he's voted against, Tamius actually starts posting.

If that's not wolf behaviour, I don't know what is.

 

[XenomorphII]

Normally by Day 2 I've been run up at random and forced to post my role PM (I've decided I'll stop doing that, too).

Well isn't that terribly convenient.

 

[esemesas]

Last chance to save myself

Unvote TheExecuter
Vote tamius23

 

[tamius23]

I'm sorry to do this to you esemesas. I think you're a villager. But I have to

Unvote enkhuush
Vote esemesas.

Does anybody have a votecount?

 

[Vainglory]

I think you should give Tami a chance. He got a lot of metagame votes for his ties and self voting (the latter was a bit BS anyway, voting for oneself is a valid tactic in certain situations) and now he says he's given them up and you want to kill him for it... I understand where you're coming from but it seems a bit damned if you do damned if you don't.

In the Mesos I don't recall him attempting any ties, and he didn't vote for himself, but then again he was a baddie there. But he has been the same in this, and in the Lite. We don't know his role in either of the latter two, but for him to be a baddie in all four would require some sort of child sacrifice to the Random Number Gods. Surely, for the sake of fairness we should give him the benefit of the doubt on the matter? Otherwise we're just telling him that he's damned no matter what he does.

Cue j'accuse for defending Tami now. Sigh, the things I do for the boy.

 

[tamius23]

Why? Read the analysis by Xenomorph, and right as soon as he's voted against, Tamius actually starts posting.

If that's not wolf behaviour, I don't know what is.

I've not been online for very long. I posted twice on the previous page.

I've now got two players voting me: one because I'm not defensive, and one because I am. Now what sense does that make?!

 

[esemesas]

Anyone got a votecount?

 

[XenomorphII]

Well if he dies this time and is good, then clearly we (well at least I) won't be as suspicious of him for it anymore.