Werewolf CXI: Demons on a Spaceplane!

[Vainglory]

Humancalculator - Adamus, Comm Cody
Kingepyon - Bagricula, Vainglory

Boris ze Spider - Snoopdogg
EUROO7 - Eternaly_Lost
Eternaly_Lost - Syber_sid
Trespoe - Capt. Kiwi
Capt. Kiwi - Kingepyon
Snoopdogg - Drxav
Drxav - Joebthegreat
Comm Cody - Humancalculator
Joebthegreat - Trespoe

The Gospel of Votecount according to Vainglory.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

Still a problem if you are numero uno...suppose you could just use the set of players who aren't you...so if you were 1, you'd vote 2; if you were 2 you'd vote 3; if you were 4, you'd vote 3...and so on.

If I was number one I'd be using my primary algorithm, voting the person with twice my signup number

This way does have bias towards voting people with an even signup number, but it's easier than pulling up a random number generator, and much more transparent. Kingepyon's Lord Strange vote, for example, is only random on the surface - posting one minute after me when he had opportunity earlier on other people? Smells like a deliberate vote masked in the costume of arbitrariness to me. And a bias like that doesn't really matter, as long as roles are handed out randomly.

 

[Bagricula]

The Gospel of Votecount according to Vainglory.

And thou shalt count to three, for three shalt be the number of thy counting...thou shalt not count to four. Nor shalt thou count to two unless thou proceedeth to three.

Five is right out.

 

[Vainglory]

And so spake the Vainglory, and so it came to be. And it was good.

 

[Vainglory]

Kingepyon's Lord Strange vote, for example, is only random on the surface - posting one minute after me when he had opportunity earlier on other people? Smells like a deliberate vote masked in the costume of arbitrariness to me. And a bias like that doesn't really matter, as long as roles are handed out randomly.

I have thought the same thing before, that one can utilize various strategies to create a veneer of randomness when actually following an agenda. It's possible to utilize various strategies in various games to avoid voting for someone (eg packmate) or for someone (eg someone you deem a threat) and still have a pretense of total randomness; Lord Strange one day, Randakar the next game, combination on the third, et cetera.

On this line of thinking the best village strategy would be if we all followed a totally transparent voting process for our initial votes; everyone uses double signup number, or person above them on signup list. But it should immediately become apparent that this would almost always create mass ties, and so vote switches would have to ensue. We could then look at vote switchers, but then we provide an alibi to wolves who do not have to move their vote. Thus, it seems to me that no method truly benefits the village in informational-vacuum situations (IE "random" voting days like Day 0).

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

If the initial votes were genuinely arbitrary, it would stop the wolves from setting the early direction though - or at least not setting it more than pure random would. It does seem like the day 1 lynch usually comes from the first four or five candidates established. That then creates a setting for vote switches and forced decisions that isn't one dictated by wolves.

Of course, that would also remove other interesting info. Like Kingepyon not wanting to vote Syber_sid.

 

[Vainglory]

If the initial votes were genuinely arbitrary, it would stop the wolves from setting the early direction though - or at least not setting it more than pure random would.

That's true, because their ability to co-ordinate would be nil, at least in the initial vote. Once switches start, though, we're back where we were.

It does seem like the day 1 lynch usually comes from the first four or five candidates established. That then creates a setting for vote switches and forced decisions that isn't one dictated by wolves.

Hmm... well the way I see wolves acting is that if one of their members is threatened they'll concentrate on an alternative target, which is what I see as problematic. I suppose ideally the wolves don't pick frontrunners, because in a 2 pack Big there's lower odds they've targeted a wolf than a villager (because they'll avoid half the wolves, obviously) and in a Lite they're guaranteed to not be voting a wolf (alibis aside). If everyone voted arbitrarily then the initial votes couldn't be controlled, and that usually is where the frontrunners come from... but I don't know, I just don't see that as seriously problematic, unless the wolves managed to select ALL the frontrunners. That's bad, but then again the village can create exactly the same situation... hmm...

To be honest I worry more about "EVERYONE VOTE X NOW!" control.

Of course, that would also remove other interesting info. Like Kingepyon not wanting to vote Syber_sid.

Or Sid not wanting to vote Euro.

 

[Bagricula]

It is possible to have both complete transparency and nearly perfect randomness without a massive TIE.

Take something like the last two digits of the Dow every 15 minutes...assign each player a successive Dow value every 15 minutes until you've got all 23 or so (would take roughly 6 hours) and then scale that number to the number of players using modular arithmetic on the set of other players.

Using such an algorithm, everyone could verify that the algorithm was followed, you'd have a good bit of randomness thrown in, and you probably wouldn't end up with a massive TIE.

 

[trespoe]

that... is a lot of spread out votes.


condensing, And I only picked this name because so many others have had early exits lately (drxav, kiwi) or are new (cody)

unvote joeb

vote Boris

 

[Trinitrotoluen]

vote Adamus

The boob testing series needs a larger sample size.

 

[Bagricula]

For example if we had a Lite with 17 players...we'd just need to check the Dow (or another index like FTSE 100) every 15 minutes for 4 and a quarter hours. So I'm going to take NIKKEI 225 since I'm in Asia right now (using the two digits after the decimal point):

1. 9:14 - 64 -> 0 -> Vote 2
2. 9:30 - 67 -> 3 -> Vote 5
3. 9:44 - 53 -> 5 -> Vote 7

And so on...

I take the last two digits and then reduce them mod 16 (16 = 17 - 1) then count the reduced number from 1 to the vote.

 

[Capt. Kiwi]

It is possible to have both complete transparency and nearly perfect randomness without a massive TIE.

Take something like the last two digits of the Dow every 15 minutes...assign each player a successive Dow value every 15 minutes until you've got all 23 or so (would take roughly 6 hours) and then scale that number to the number of players using modular arithmetic on the set of other players.

Using such an algorithm, everyone could verify that the algorithm was followed, you'd have a good bit of randomness thrown in, and you probably wouldn't end up with a massive TIE.

I prefer simplicity myself

condensing, And I only picked this name because so many others have had early exits lately (drxav, kiwi) or are new (cody)

I've only ever had exits

Although I probably could have won Budget Crunch if I'd not got ahead of myself.

 

[Bagricula]

I prefer simplicity myself

One option would be to have a player volunteer to do the calculations and just post what everyone's votes should be. Since the algorithm is public as is the source data, any manipulation could be verified...

...but it'd require someone else to crunch through it.

 

[Vainglory]

@ Bagricula

So everyone's vote would be determined for them... as a theoretical solution to the problem, that is quite brilliant (if I followed it correctly). Of course the village would never co-ordinate to that degree, and in solving the problem of voting on informationally useless days without wolves being able to manipulate it (in the event everyone followed the instructions) we'd create a new problem of creating an informationally void day (unless people vote switched, which somewhat defeats the purpose).

 

[Morrell8]

Dead on the first night again...

 

[Bagricula]

But vote switching would be informationally revealing!

It's only informationally void if everyone complies...after a while a strong compliance norm could build up, making it very revealing if anyone switches.

 

[EUROO7]

Dead on the first night again...

Hey, don't write yourself off yet. It's only in your head you feel left out or looked down on. Just try your best, try everything you can and don't you worry what they tell themselves when you're away.

 

[Vainglory]

Hey, don't write yourself off yet. It's only in your head you feel left out or looked down on. Just try your best, try everything you can and don't you worry what they tell themselves when you're away.

It just takes some time, little girl, you're in the middle of the ride, everything everything will be just fine, everything everything will be alright, alright?

 

[EUROO7]

It just takes some time, little girl, you're in the middle of the ride, everything everything will be just fine, everything everything will be alright, alright?

I don't know what you're on about.

 

[Bagricula]

I think I will crunch the numbers once the next Lite starts up...I don't want to have to do this with too many players at once.

We'll see whether the idea catches on....if there's sufficient compliance then the defectors are suspicious.