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Werewolf CXC: Oliver Twist

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Day 5/night 6

Oliver_Twist_-_Cruikshank_-_The_Burgulary.jpg


You send your loyal servant William Chesterton out investigating for you today; he is nosy (infiltrator) and a leader (leader) and will surely find something worthwhile. As he is walking in a large crowd he suddenly realises that somebody is stealing his sneeze-box; he yells stop the thief and sets after him---the thief is wearing a coat which obviously is too long for him since it goes all the way down to his feet. A mob quickly assembles and after a little while the thief is apprenhended. Police arrives before the mob can harm the thief. The Artful Dodger, as the thief is called, is swiftly deported to Australia; the Artful Dodger is observant (SA), part of Fagin's gang and a little bit of a leader (6th in command), but obviously that wasn't enough for him, I5, wolf, to avoid getting deported.
William continues his investigation, but suddenly he is stopped outside an inn called the Three Cripples. A lanky young adult is trying to stop him; his name is Noah Claypole. Noah and William ands up in a fight and Noah who is unforgiving (assassin) fatally wounds William; William, Sleepy, villager, manages to thrust his knife into the chest of Noah, sed, cultist, though and both bleed out just outside the Three Cripples---Noah wasn't the brightest member of Fagin's gang.





I5 the SA 5th in command wolf of Fagin's gang is lynched
sed the unused assassin cultist of Fagin's gang is lynched
Sleepy the leader infiltrator is hunted

​
 
Great results. So that's 5 dead baddies, 3 wolves (1 red, 2 Black), a red zealot, and a red cultist. Assuming 1/3 of 23 players are baddies, I think we're looking at 8 baddies total. Having both zealots and cultists makes working out pack composition a little tricky. Zealots start attached, but cultists may or may not. Equal packs would assume 2 wolves, a zealot, and a cultist to each pack. Or it's possible that sedracus started out unattached and found a pack, which could mean another unattached cultist or a sorcerer. Another possibility would be unequal packs, where one got more wolves while the other got more zealots or cultists. Lots of possibilities here, but more dead baddies means more information.

Not many possible reds left, since most players were voting them. Ironhead was trying to lynch Jerman before he died, so he's unlikely too I think. Sedracus voting Ironhead makes it more murky though. I guess as a cultist he'd be more willing to sell out his pack. Luftwafer strikes me as a very likely red baddie for his voting record. K-59 and Osteles would be possibilities too for not voting red yesterday. Luft and Osteles also fit well as black baddies too.

Vote Luftwafer
 
Nice. That's a lot of damage done to the pack we didn't know much about, and the baddie assassin never decided to shoot anyone, either. Huge win for the village all around.

Two dead wolves from each pack (I regard zealots as effectively wolves), and one dead cultist. My analysis from yesterday remains about the same, except that now Sikes' gang now probably has the greater numbers.

RB33 remains an especially promising lynch, in my estimation. Luft is a fine choice too.

Vote RB33

I'd do more analysis, but right now I just feel like basking in my awesomeness and pitying those not so blessed as I with my unique combination of great skill and unparalleled humility. Plenty of time left in the day for me to unleash the full power of my greatness.
 
aedan777 said:
Great

K-59 and Osteles would be possibilities too for not voting red yesterday. Luft and Osteles also fit well as black baddies too.

Vote Luftwafer
Click to expand...

To be honest, I had no clue about I5, I kept with RB33, also a likely culprit
K-59 keeps voting me for no apparent reason, so that's why he did not vote I5

Then again, Sed, who proved to be evil voted I5, so your reasoning is a bit flawed...

I'd like to go for RB33, but somehow voting him does not seem to get traction, so for now, and out of spite.

Vote K-59

Because he IS fishy
 
Oh. I have bachelors party today. So if i can login, It's with my phone. I already appologise for the typo's.
 
Osteles said:
To be honest, I had no clue about I5, I kept with RB33, also a likely culprit
K-59 keeps voting me for no apparent reason, so that's why he did not vote I5

Then again, Sed, who proved to be evil voted I5, so your reasoning is a bit flawed...

I'd like to go for RB33, but somehow voting him does not seem to get traction, so for now, and out of spite.

Vote K-59

Because he IS fishy
Click to expand...

If you didn't cut up and omit most of my post, you'd see that I did acknowledge and comment on the fact Sedracus voted Ironhead. However, his actions as a cultist would not necessarily be indicative of the behaviours of a wolf of a pack, since wolves have to win with their starting pack, while cultists can jump ship. And the alternatives to voting people for failing to vote wolves are inferior to the given process, even if it isn't perfect.

And while K-59 is a reasonable candidate, specifying spite as part of your reasoning behind voting him seems odd and unhelpful wording this late in the game.
 
Yesterday was a great day, we got two wolves in a tie, I couldn't have asked for a better outcome. However, I still think the case on RB33 is very vaild and a good one, and my gut tells me that I should continue to vote for him. But before I make a decsion, I'm going to look at Ironhead's and Sedrecus' (or however you spell it) voting record.

On Day 1, IH5 voted for Madchemist and Sedrecus voted for Eternally Lost
On Day 2, IH5 voted for Rovsea and Sedrecus voted for CC (Now Luftwafer 2.0)
On Day 3, IH5 and Sedrecus voted for Rovsea
On Day 4, IH5 and Sedrecus voted for Jacksonian
On Day 5, IH5 voted for Jerman and Sedrecus voted for IH5

As I am a moron, does anyone have any idea if this means anything?
 
Anyways, I still am convinced that RB33 is hiding something, and I think we'd be better safe than sorry to get rid of him so.

Vote RB33

Until a better case arises.
 
JermanTK said:
Yesterday was a great day, we got two wolves in a tie, I couldn't have asked for a better outcome. However, I still think the case on RB33 is very vaild and a good one, and my gut tells me that I should continue to vote for him. But before I make a decsion, I'm going to look at Ironhead's and Sedrecus' (or however you spell it) voting record.

On Day 1, IH5 voted for Madchemist and Sedrecus voted for Eternally Lost
On Day 2, IH5 voted for Rovsea and Sedrecus voted for CC (Now Luftwafer 2.0)
On Day 3, IH5 and Sedrecus voted for Rovsea
On Day 4, IH5 and Sedrecus voted for Jacksonian
On Day 5, IH5 voted for Jerman and Sedrecus voted for IH5

As I am a moron, does anyone have any idea if this means anything?
Click to expand...

Werewolf 101: Voting Analysis for Dummies

Well, you've looked up their votes, which is a good start. Now you should apply this wonderful thing known as basic logic. A wolf having a packmate get lynched is a very bad thing for them; hence most wolves will try to prevent this and will not be voting their packmates. Therefore, we can tentatively conclude things like the following:

I5 voted MC. Therefore I5 and MC are less likely to be packmates than in the absence of this info. Sedracus and E_L are less likely packmates for similar reasonss. You can apply the same logic for the other votes; consider a vote as less likely to indicate that two players are packmates and guide your own vote accordingly.

Now obviously, that's a very simple assumption, but even relying on something as simplistic as that to inform your votes will do an OK job, especially against players who are not especially subtle about their votes. You can refine your hypotheses based on things like

1. Was that player particularly important in building the case on a wolf, or did he just follow someone else's case (the ones who build a case on a wolf are rarely packmates)?
2. Was the vote on a wolf crucial in bringing that wolf into danger, or was it relatively inconsequential? (Votes that resulted in a lynch occurring are far more important than a single vote on a wolf that never goes anywhere or is quickly abandoned).
3. Does the player in question have a reputation for voting packmates, or is that a rarity? (A player with a tendency to sell out packmates is less cleared by a vote on a wolf than one who rarely votes packmates).

There are other questions that can be asked and factors that may cause you to discount the importance of a particular vote or consider it more important. But it isn't too hard to move into a slightly more advanced mode of analysis than just noting that X voted Y and therefore X and Y are less likely packmates.


Once you've decided which players are unlikely packmates, you place your vote on a person who has done the least to distance himself from one or both packs by voting them or being voted by them. In this case, RB33 is a fine choice, by all appearances, but without going through the necessary logic you don't necessarily have a way of knowing this, except by the fairly unreliable method of intuition.

Last tip: don't ever use "I'm a moron" as a reason for not trying to draw conclusions about the information that's out there in plain view. The thought process behind the game is far too simple for that excuse ever to be valid.
 
So can someone give me the reasons for voting me?
 
RB33 said:
So can someone give me the reasons for voting me?
Click to expand...

Well let's see.

People you have voted: tonka D1 (almost guaranteed goodie), tamius D2 (unlikely packmate of Rovsea due to D2 votes), Rovsea D3 (self-outed, doesn't count for anything), Osteles (temporary) and Jacksonian (dead padre) D4, Sed and Ironhead D5 (only out of self-preservation, and both baddies of what is now the weaker pack).
People who have voted you: al-Aziz D1 (dead goodie), madchemist, Jacksonian, tonkatoy, Osteles, aedan, Jerman, Sedracus D4 (several goodies, a couple unknowns; Sed's vote on you was temporary)

Basically, you've managed not to vote any wolves except for yesterday, and known wolves have strangely avoided voting for you despite the fact that you should be an easy lynch target with your general activity level and unwillingness even to so much as attempt to use your brain to come up with any sort of case on anybody.
 
madchemist said:
Well let's see.

People you have voted: tonka D1 (almost guaranteed goodie), tamius D2 (unlikely packmate of Rovsea due to D2 votes), Rovsea D3 (self-outed, doesn't count for anything), Osteles (temporary) and Jacksonian (dead padre) D4, Sed and Ironhead D5 (only out of self-preservation, and both baddies of what is now the weaker pack).
People who have voted you: al-Aziz D1 (dead goodie), madchemist, Jacksonian, tonkatoy, Osteles, aedan, Jerman, Sedracus D4 (several goodies, a couple unknowns; Sed's vote on you was temporary)

Basically, you've managed not to vote any wolves except for yesterday, and known wolves have strangely avoided voting for you despite the fact that you should be an easy lynch target with your general activity level and unwillingness even to so much as attempt to use your brain to come up with any sort of case on anybody.
Click to expand...
Tonka, I voted because he was below me in the players list. And tamius because he was not the most voted player.

RB33 said:
I haven't had a good reason for voting anyone yet.
Click to expand...
I meant what I said.
 
Last edited:
RB33 said:
Tonka, I voted because he was below me in the players list. And tamius because he was not the most voted player.


I meant what I said.
Click to expand...

Ok, so you have some reasons for your votes, even if they're reasons which if I'm being nice I will describe as irrelevant ones. Good for you, I guess? Neither of those even vaguely resembles anything that makes you look like a goodie.
 
madchemist said:
Ok, so you have some reasons for your votes, even if they're reasons which if I'm being nice I will describe as irrelevant ones. Good for you, I guess? Neither of those even vaguely resembles anything that makes you look like a goodie.
Click to expand...
You said I voted for them, here was my reasons.
 
JermanTK said:
Yesterday was a great day, we got two wolves in a tie
Click to expand...
No, we lynched a wolf and cultist. Not to mention the normal comment about how statements like these are useless.
 
I have to resist the desire to revenge vote Aedan, I still feel that RB has been extremely lucky to survive this far, almost too lucky and probably has the backing of either a JL, which wouldn't really make any sense, they would probably announce he is clean or a wolf Pack, which I feel is more likely, he has subtly avoided lynching at the expense of pretty much one pack ( or have I read it wrong).

Which leads me to vote to lynch RB
 
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