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Emphasis on walrus is a Match Fixer Seer; major detail I obviously forgot in the update.
That... would just about sum it up... Seer-hunter loss alone is catastrophic.
:s match fixer seer? I don't see that role in the first post, sorry, what am I missing?
I'm sorry I couldn't vote yesterday guys, I was at a wedding and I wasn't home until 3 in the morning, and had to climb through the bathroom window tipsy to unlock the door... but I digress.
Yesterday was ridiculous. I have only skimmed through it but what I saw were 2 of the most blatant bandwagons of recent times. I'm not sure if I suspect the joeb or the Walrus voters more. There was a slight (albeit poor) case against joeb but he was absolutely piled up. I couldn't see a real case against the manatee but they seemed to come more slowly, or at least towards the deadline when votes generally pile up more.
I'm not going to do the easy thing and say we should lynch anyone who was on one of those bandwagons. But anyone who voted Walrus or joeb especially without giving a good reason when they already had many votes should be strongly checked.
I haven't properly checked the Walrus votes as much so feel free to correct me on that if I misread the situation, but the votes on joeb were mostly reprehensible.
I will check now to see who is culpable, but one I know from memory is Hearth, whom I voted yesterday but no one followed it. He has already been on numerous bandwagons. However, many newbies have tendencies to do this so I'm not sure how strong the case is. But for the moment he's a good vote at least.
Vote Hearth
Yesterday was ridiculous. I have only skimmed through it but what I saw were 2 of the most blatant bandwagons of recent times. I'm not sure if I suspect the joeb or the Walrus voters more. There was a slight (albeit poor) case against joeb but he was absolutely piled up. I couldn't see a real case against the manatee but they seemed to come more slowly, or at least towards the deadline when votes generally pile up more.
I'm not going to do the easy thing and say we should lynch anyone who was on one of those bandwagons. But anyone who voted Walrus or joeb especially without giving a good reason when they already had many votes should be strongly checked.
I haven't properly checked the Walrus votes as much so feel free to correct me on that if I misread the situation, but the votes on joeb were mostly reprehensible.
I will check now to see who is culpable, but one I know from memory is Hearth, whom I voted yesterday but no one followed it. He has already been on numerous bandwagons. However, many newbies have tendencies to do this so I'm not sure how strong the case is. But for the moment he's a good vote at least.
Vote Hearth
A cursory reading is currently showing me Walrus did in fact get votes on early on, apologies. But that if anything makes them more suspicious, my point still stands.
Eh marty, I don't think his cover would have been blown up that fast... and if I recall correctly, joeb placed the first vote on walrus, and I placed the second. It's silly to lose a Seer to a lynch (especially a hunter seer), and the JL didn't really do much about it. I hope the scanlist hasn't disappeared...
What? Whose cover? You misunderstand me, sir.
I wasn't implying anything about anyone in the JL, I haven't looked at all of the known roles yet even. As for the second part I don't know how that relates to me at all.
All I am talking about now is vote analysing, specifically yesterday's blatant bandwagoning, which always gives a fairly decent chance of finding a wolf.
Really, you were the one who voted Hearth yesterday Marty? That why the GM has you down as not voting and me down as voting for him? are you sure that you mean two days ago when you where the only one voting for Hearth?
Vote Hearth
Marty is right however that we should give him a closer look, although I might change to Marty later after that post of his.
I voted Hearth two days ago, I apologise.
What? Dude, I made a simple typo, it doesn't affect anything in my post. The fact still stands that no one followed me on Hearth when I voted him. It's good to see you're thinking on the Hearth front, but to vote me based only on that mis-type would be ridiculous, and wolfish.
Ah geez people, I leave you alone for 5 hours and this is the mess I get back to? *sigh*
First of all, dearest GM, what is a Match Fixer? I don't see that anywhere on the front page...
Secondly, the most suspicious behaviour I've seen in the whole thread has been Edzako. He was online 7 minutes before the deadline and simply did not vote. I'm sorry, but with the votes so close at that moment, you vote, period. Blatant disregard for the good of the village.
VOTE EDZAKO
First of all, dearest GM, what is a Match Fixer? I don't see that anywhere on the front page...
Secondly, the most suspicious behaviour I've seen in the whole thread has been Edzako. He was online 7 minutes before the deadline and simply did not vote. I'm sorry, but with the votes so close at that moment, you vote, period. Blatant disregard for the good of the village.
VOTE EDZAKO
I'm building a case right now. Not that only are you acting suspicious but, unfortunately for you, I believe lynching you will yield a lot of information about others.wiieh! People are in a state of animosity against me!
Round 0
Hunted - Lord Strange
Round 1
(7) enkhuush - reis91, esemesas, Vainglory, Capt. Kiwi, Hearth, Rysz, joebthegreat
(4) Najs - marty99, Kingepyon, Boris ze Spider, Edzako
(4) XenomorphII - Eternaly_Lost, Paendrag, Slinky, hebelecan
(2) Rysz - Falc, Taiisatai64
(2) hebelecan - drxav, Quift
(2) joebthegreat - tamius23, Najs
(1) Vainglory - walrus
(1) Falc - enkhuush
(1) marty99 - Morrell8
(1) Eternaly_Lost - Adamus
(1) Paendrag - XenomorphII
(1) Boris ze Spider - White Daimon
Hunted - N/A
Round 2
(10) Boris ze Spider - reis91, Falc, esemesas, Kingepyon, Vainglory, walrus, tamius23, Najs, Capt. Kiwi, drxav
(8) drxav - Hearth, joebthegreat, Rysz, Taiisatai64, Edzako, Paendrag, Slinky, Boris ze Spider
(1) joebthegreat - Adamus
(1) Najs - hebelecan
(1) walrus - Quift
(1) Hearth - marty99
(1) Quift - XenomorphII
(1) Vainglory - Eternaly_Lost
nv: White Daimon, Morrell8
Hunted - esemesas
Boris_ze_Spider leaderlynched Rysz
Round 3
(6) walrus - joebthegreat, Falc, Paendrag, Capt. Kiwi, Boris ze Spider, Najs
(6) joebthegreat - hebelecan, Kingepyon, Taiisatai64, tamius23, reis91, Vainglory
(2) Vainglory - XenomorphII, Adamus
(1) Hearth - Eternaly_Lost
(1) Kingepyon - Morrell8*
(1) drxav - Hearth
(1) Taiisatai64 - Quift
(1) Adamus - Slinky
nv: White Daimon*, walrus, drxav, marty99, Edzako
Hunted - Capt. Kiwi
Hunted - Lord Strange
Round 1
(7) enkhuush - reis91, esemesas, Vainglory, Capt. Kiwi, Hearth, Rysz, joebthegreat
(4) Najs - marty99, Kingepyon, Boris ze Spider, Edzako
(4) XenomorphII - Eternaly_Lost, Paendrag, Slinky, hebelecan
(2) Rysz - Falc, Taiisatai64
(2) hebelecan - drxav, Quift
(2) joebthegreat - tamius23, Najs
(1) Vainglory - walrus
(1) Falc - enkhuush
(1) marty99 - Morrell8
(1) Eternaly_Lost - Adamus
(1) Paendrag - XenomorphII
(1) Boris ze Spider - White Daimon
Hunted - N/A
Round 2
(10) Boris ze Spider - reis91, Falc, esemesas, Kingepyon, Vainglory, walrus, tamius23, Najs, Capt. Kiwi, drxav
(8) drxav - Hearth, joebthegreat, Rysz, Taiisatai64, Edzako, Paendrag, Slinky, Boris ze Spider
(1) joebthegreat - Adamus
(1) Najs - hebelecan
(1) walrus - Quift
(1) Hearth - marty99
(1) Quift - XenomorphII
(1) Vainglory - Eternaly_Lost
nv: White Daimon, Morrell8
Hunted - esemesas
Boris_ze_Spider leaderlynched Rysz
Round 3
(6) walrus - joebthegreat, Falc, Paendrag, Capt. Kiwi, Boris ze Spider, Najs
(6) joebthegreat - hebelecan, Kingepyon, Taiisatai64, tamius23, reis91, Vainglory
(2) Vainglory - XenomorphII, Adamus
(1) Hearth - Eternaly_Lost
(1) Kingepyon - Morrell8*
(1) drxav - Hearth
(1) Taiisatai64 - Quift
(1) Adamus - Slinky
nv: White Daimon*, walrus, drxav, marty99, Edzako
Hunted - Capt. Kiwi
Edzako seems a good choice, due to his fear of commitment, if what Falc says is true. Can anyone back him up?
The joeb and Walrus bandwagons:
Walrus 1:
Walrus 2:
Joebthegreat 1:
Nevertheless, it was the first vote and he at least tried, I think hebelecan is sound here.
There was then a brief lull in the two bandwagons, as other people got one vote each.
Then Vainglory makes Walrus Vote 3:
Joeb vote 2:
The next reason though is understandable; he is bringing joeb into the joint lead with Walrus, which is preferable to making a throwaway (although he could have brought someone else up to two).
Again, moderately suspicious, but it's circumstantial.
Joeb votes 3 and 4:
However, these are both blatant, and unexcusable bandwagoning. Kingepyon's reason just screams at me (considering as I've already said, that Cpt Kiwi's argument was meaningless).
Taii was because he was "a bit of a sly devil" - classic wolf bullshit. He claimed it was a placeholder but if it was a placeholder why vote for the leader?? Odd.
Joeb vote 5:
Tamius here is openly acknowleding his bandwagoning. Maybe he just doesn't know the ways of our game yet to know that is stupid, but it doesn't make him less or more suspicious.
At this stage I believe joeb has 5 votes ad the next closest has only 2 (which is Walrus). Purely in terms of classic bandwagoning this is the worst so far...
...until good 'ol Hearth came along.
Joeb vote 6:
Again, no other frontrunner has emerged by this stage so AFAIK this puts joeb four three in the lead.
reis switches off walrus. Not particularly important
Now Hearth switches off joeb...
Capt Kiwi unvotes joeb
Joeb vote 7 [with a current total of 5]:
Joeb was highly active. He made some attempt to defend himself, more than most people, although he did give a reason why he might not have. He states that wolves are more likely to let themselves be lynched, where is he getting this from? Joeb doesn't pander to the interests of the pack above his own welfare.
Overall, this is screaming wolf to me. I have to remember it is reis but still.
Walrus Vote 3:
Walrus Vote 4:
Again, if Hearth is guilty it will slightly change the nature of this vote.
Walrus Vote 5:
This vote made a tie and the principle of bringing the two contenders together is good. But I find Kiwi's continuous presence in, and manipulation of, the voting procedure suspicious. He doesn't strike me as the Lemeard type who would do it for fun.
Reminder: At this stage Walrus and Joeb are tied at 5 apiece, with the nearest contender (Hearth) having 2.
Walrus Vote 6:
EDIT: He was, in fact, voting Edzako beforehand.
He then changes from Edzako to Walrus.
Its now Walrus 6, joeb 5.
It remains like this until the minute before the deadline, where Najs and Vainglory both snipe.
Summary: Who is suspicious from the two bandwagons?
In descending order the most suspicious IMHO are:
Hearth
reis91
tamius 23
Kingepyon and taii (joint)
Vainglory
ADDENDUM: Ignore everything I've said about Capt.Kiwi, as he is dead.
Walrus 1:
First vote on Walrus, random. Obviously we know joeb's role but this shows why the votes on Walrus started i.e. for no reason whatsoever.
Walrus 2:
Straight after joeb's post (and quoting it), this is not only the second vote on walrus it is the second vote of the game. Walrus is clear ahead already. Again, no reason at all.
Joebthegreat 1:
To set the context, hebelecan was also quoting joeb, and seem to have some sort of premise to vote, although I think he misunderstood joeb or wasn't paying much attention, because joeb was talking about esemesas, who was dead, and not Walrus who he voted randomly. Hebelecan seemed to think joeb was talking about Walrus and used that case against him. It seems to me, as a fail. Either that or it was a random vote, because he did acknowledge it wasn't "a proper theory".
Nevertheless, it was the first vote and he at least tried, I think hebelecan is sound here.
There was then a brief lull in the two bandwagons, as other people got one vote each.
Then Vainglory makes Walrus Vote 3:
I don't quite understand this, nor do I care, but whatever it is not a real case, this is the third vote against Walrus. Since it was a while after the previous two votes, this isn't blatant bandwagoneering, but in hindsight it's still moderately suspicious.
Joeb vote 2:
I don't understand the rationale for finding suspicious here. "Had his finger in a few pies" - not only is it so vague as to be meaningless, it is even in any way weird, joeb is always like this. It seems like it could have been an excuse for bandwagoning.
The next reason though is understandable; he is bringing joeb into the joint lead with Walrus, which is preferable to making a throwaway (although he could have brought someone else up to two).
Again, moderately suspicious, but it's circumstantial.
Joeb votes 3 and 4:
It is important to nore these were made at the same timestamp, so taiisatai64's slightly later vote is no more suspicious than Kingepyon in the classic chronological sense.
However, these are both blatant, and unexcusable bandwagoning. Kingepyon's reason just screams at me (considering as I've already said, that Cpt Kiwi's argument was meaningless).
Taii was because he was "a bit of a sly devil" - classic wolf bullshit. He claimed it was a placeholder but if it was a placeholder why vote for the leader?? Odd.
Joeb vote 5:
Bollocks, how am I going to differentiate between taii and tami? :/
Tamius here is openly acknowleding his bandwagoning. Maybe he just doesn't know the ways of our game yet to know that is stupid, but it doesn't make him less or more suspicious.
At this stage I believe joeb has 5 votes ad the next closest has only 2 (which is Walrus). Purely in terms of classic bandwagoning this is the worst so far...
...until good 'ol Hearth came along.
Joeb vote 6:
Hearth, who initially avoided the bandwagon, charges into the thick of it.
Again, no other frontrunner has emerged by this stage so AFAIK this puts joeb four three in the lead.
reis switches off walrus. Not particularly important
Now Hearth switches off joeb...
...for no apparent reason. This only makes me suspect him more. Unvoting joeb doesn't clear him and it further shows Hearth's tendencies to follow others.
Capt Kiwi unvotes joeb
He acknowledges he was ahead, and to be far joeb wasn't in the lead as much when he voted him. He also provides a good candidate in Hearth. Still, it gives the impression he's covering his ass here. It doesn't really change my stance of Capi Kiwi.
Joeb vote 7 [with a current total of 5]:
Reis switches to joeb bringing back to his rightful position; way ahead of everyone else. Not only, but he switched away from Hearth who had been considered suspicious, and who had 3 votes. This vote makes the next closest to joeb have only two votes (Hearth and Walrus) and increases joeb's total.
This seems as if the explanation was made to fit the vote. It doesn't make much sense:
Joeb was highly active. He made some attempt to defend himself, more than most people, although he did give a reason why he might not have. He states that wolves are more likely to let themselves be lynched, where is he getting this from? Joeb doesn't pander to the interests of the pack above his own welfare.
Overall, this is screaming wolf to me. I have to remember it is reis but still.
Walrus Vote 3:
Voting Walrus here isn't bandwagoning, he hadn't got voted in ages, relatively. And the rationale, keeping it closer is a perfectly acceptable and in this case necessary strategy. However, he could also have Hearth which would have made it closer between joeb and someone else. If Hearth is guilty we will revisit this vote. If hearth is a villager, it is then harmless.
Walrus Vote 4:
No reason, but nevertheless I do not find this vote overly suspicious. Joeb was still two ahead before this vote and this brought it closer together.
Again, if Hearth is guilty it will slightly change the nature of this vote.
Walrus Vote 5:
Not quite sure how 'reis killed the Hearth option' at all here, he still had two votes, in the words of Marlon Brando, he coulda' been a contender. Seems forced.
This vote made a tie and the principle of bringing the two contenders together is good. But I find Kiwi's continuous presence in, and manipulation of, the voting procedure suspicious. He doesn't strike me as the Lemeard type who would do it for fun.
Reminder: At this stage Walrus and Joeb are tied at 5 apiece, with the nearest contender (Hearth) having 2.
Walrus Vote 6:
A clear move to kill Walrus and save joeb here, but as we know they were both villagers there is no apparent ulterior motive. This actually strikes me as good. If anything a baddie would do nothing, in order to maximise the chances of a tie.
EDIT: He was, in fact, voting Edzako beforehand.
He then changes from Edzako to Walrus.
Its now Walrus 6, joeb 5.
It remains like this until the minute before the deadline, where Najs and Vainglory both snipe.
Of two, Najs is the less suspicious as if Vain didn't also snipe, Najs's vote would have prevented the tie.
Summary: Who is suspicious from the two bandwagons?
In descending order the most suspicious IMHO are:
Hearth
reis91
tamius 23
Kingepyon and taii (joint)
Vainglory
ADDENDUM: Ignore everything I've said about Capt.Kiwi, as he is dead.
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Read from there down about three posts. I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. What did he stand to gain by that? He gets a black mark next to his name, that's all. If he wanted to be inconspicuous why not just vote up Walrus, who was in the lead at the time?