We can be quite confident that the hunter won't hit the GA at next deadline, the odds are too small for that. That should leave us 3 deadlines to kill the hunter, unless we're unlucky.
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We can be quite confident that the hunter won't hit the GA at next deadline, the odds are too small for that. That should leave us 3 deadlines to kill the hunter, unless we're unlucky.
Drink the potion. Like they do in Ancient Greece, and step over quietly.
VOTE MASS SUICIDE
VOTE MASS SUICIDE
I'm not sure anymore that it does us any good to look at any logical traces..
Should I go after gut feeling I'd say Slinky as he's been keeping to quiet and only voted in and out..
My guess is that the hunter would like to stay below radar not trying make to much noise. As Najs says he can only hunt everyother day, and as he doesn't know whom the GA is I'm guessing he wants to decimate us as much as possible so his odds get better..
But since logic is the only thing that can be worked with I'll once again present the things that itches me...
Najs:
Our dead Seer makes a vote for Najs calling him a wolf.. But would he go out like that if it really was a real scan??
Also this makes me shrug.. It's in the hunters interest that we don't panic and do not take seriously one each and every vote.. We need to get the hunter before he CAN hunt. But then again if we can only catch the hunter by random hangings with no logical trace at all.. Then Najs is kind of right..
Adamus:
AOK11:
Doesn't seem to do his usual detective work as I'm used to seeing him.
Drxav:
I have been on his case early but there have been reasonable explanations for everything.
Says he's in contact with a special role (GA) and if he's the hunter we're screwed anyways since that means the GA is compromised. But he's also a bit to vocal as I think the hunter would no stick his neck out like that..
Randy:
His usual logical self. I can see no flaws in his theorys but then again he's always hard to make out atleast for me. Also to loud.
Athalcor:
Says he's to new but I can say that right now that if you have any theories lay them out and let us see as the more the better.. I don't think anyone would think them silly..
Inexperienced yes.. Silly no. Could be using his newbieness as a cover though.
Slinky+The Split: Both very quiet.. If I were to use only my gut I'd say one of them is the hunter... It is in the hunters interest to let the villagers just vote without thinking for themselves.. Being quiet and melting in with those who are also quiet..
presenting own theories (especially flawed ones) is always a bit more dangerous..
Everyone needs to look through the thread to see what they can come up with becuse I refuse to belive this will all go down in plain luck at the end.
For now..
VOTE SLINKY
Should I go after gut feeling I'd say Slinky as he's been keeping to quiet and only voted in and out..
My guess is that the hunter would like to stay below radar not trying make to much noise. As Najs says he can only hunt everyother day, and as he doesn't know whom the GA is I'm guessing he wants to decimate us as much as possible so his odds get better..
But since logic is the only thing that can be worked with I'll once again present the things that itches me...
Najs:
Our dead Seer makes a vote for Najs calling him a wolf.. But would he go out like that if it really was a real scan??
As said before I don't think Ties are in our favour since that will only narrow it down for the hunter to get the GA or in worst case include the GA in the tie.
Also this makes me shrug.. It's in the hunters interest that we don't panic and do not take seriously one each and every vote.. We need to get the hunter before he CAN hunt. But then again if we can only catch the hunter by random hangings with no logical trace at all.. Then Najs is kind of right..
Adamus:
It took Adamus quite some time and he even defended Esemesas too point before voting him.. Could just be a lack of attention though.
AOK11:
Doesn't seem to do his usual detective work as I'm used to seeing him.
Drxav:
I have been on his case early but there have been reasonable explanations for everything.
Says he's in contact with a special role (GA) and if he's the hunter we're screwed anyways since that means the GA is compromised. But he's also a bit to vocal as I think the hunter would no stick his neck out like that..
Randy:
His usual logical self. I can see no flaws in his theorys but then again he's always hard to make out atleast for me. Also to loud.
Athalcor:
Says he's to new but I can say that right now that if you have any theories lay them out and let us see as the more the better.. I don't think anyone would think them silly..
Inexperienced yes.. Silly no. Could be using his newbieness as a cover though.
Slinky+The Split: Both very quiet.. If I were to use only my gut I'd say one of them is the hunter... It is in the hunters interest to let the villagers just vote without thinking for themselves.. Being quiet and melting in with those who are also quiet..
presenting own theories (especially flawed ones) is always a bit more dangerous..
Everyone needs to look through the thread to see what they can come up with becuse I refuse to belive this will all go down in plain luck at the end.
For now..
VOTE SLINKY
I'm quite puzzled at this.
The hunter could be any one.
Adamus: I've never seen him produce any village-friendly move in any game I've been with him (no offense). He generally tends to follow the trend and it usually works well for him. Last Lite he was a wolf.
AOK: fucked up play-style, ranting about things, doing other things. Totally random.
Randy: usually mutli-quotes till death occurs. Long, long, looooong analysis.
Najs: no clue at all. Has always been hanged quickly as a baddie.
The SPlit / Slinky: the common absent player. He often misses votes and all. No frickin' idea.
Paen: he did not strike me in the past games. First time I see him putting so much thinking in it.
Athlacor: I have to scroll up to check the name. :~. Newbie anyways.
Tonight's a hunt night. Unless we're very unlucky and the GA is hunted, tomorrow we'll be down to 7, and I'll be honest with you, there's no way to clear anyone. I could be lying about being in contact with the GA, Randy or Paen could be using smokescreen analysis, Najs could effectively be trying to calm us down, etc.
There's no way to determine cleared people but one thing: there hopefully is a list of cleared players handed down by Guy before he died. Let's hope he had time to scan at least 2 people and that these people are still alive and coordinating. Let's hope so.
We'll have to determine what to do with that at some point. Now is too soon. I reckon the "what to do with it" will demand a leap of faith at some point.
The hunter could be any one.
Adamus: I've never seen him produce any village-friendly move in any game I've been with him (no offense). He generally tends to follow the trend and it usually works well for him. Last Lite he was a wolf.
AOK: fucked up play-style, ranting about things, doing other things. Totally random.
Randy: usually mutli-quotes till death occurs. Long, long, looooong analysis.
Najs: no clue at all. Has always been hanged quickly as a baddie.
The SPlit / Slinky: the common absent player. He often misses votes and all. No frickin' idea.
Paen: he did not strike me in the past games. First time I see him putting so much thinking in it.
Athlacor: I have to scroll up to check the name. :~. Newbie anyways.
Tonight's a hunt night. Unless we're very unlucky and the GA is hunted, tomorrow we'll be down to 7, and I'll be honest with you, there's no way to clear anyone. I could be lying about being in contact with the GA, Randy or Paen could be using smokescreen analysis, Najs could effectively be trying to calm us down, etc.
There's no way to determine cleared people but one thing: there hopefully is a list of cleared players handed down by Guy before he died. Let's hope he had time to scan at least 2 people and that these people are still alive and coordinating. Let's hope so.
We'll have to determine what to do with that at some point. Now is too soon. I reckon the "what to do with it" will demand a leap of faith at some point.
I seriously doubt there is a list of cleared people as I think the seer scanned two wolves. I remember reading a post indicating something like that.
drxav is cleared as is the person he is in contact with. If it wasn't true the real GA would have come forward somehow already.
drxav is cleared as is the person he is in contact with. If it wasn't true the real GA would have come forward somehow already.
No there was no mention anywhere the seer scanned two wolves, or anything. There was no mentions anywhere of any scans.
The GA coming forward = endgame. I don't think he's that stupid.
There are lot's of ways of coming forward. If you are lying at this point it means you are the hunter so the GA can likely trust any other player. If the person you are talking to is lying the GA could yesterday have trusted 7 out of 9 players. Considering that he needs the person who is lying dead to win and the only way for us to know that person is actually lying is for him to tell us, I think it's safe to say that he would have contacted someone by now.
This is just speculation, if anything both hunter and GA need to employ the strategy of not getting lynched, that is all… it is to the benefit of both to bid there time and hope for a right lynch of their opponenet.….
Hypothesis 1: I'm lying
How does the GA know that? He can eventually trust 8 out of 9 people, but again, he doesn't know because:
hypothesis 2: I'm not lying but the person who contacted me is actually the hunter. Since I did not disclose information about that person, there's no way to know who it is.
Therefore the GA, had he not come in contact with me, knows I know the hunter's name.
- if he comes in contact with me he risks: me not trusting him and giving his name away.
- me being the hunter and killing him.
if he comes into contact with anyone but me he risks getting in contact with the hunter who is actually lying to me.
I somewhat trust that person but believe me, even he isn't cleared in my eyes. There are still chances he's the hunter, and he knows about my posture.
There are like 75% chances he's the GA, but still, if he wasn't, I hope the real GA will come in contact with me, just not now, this is too early.
You reasoning like information is crystal clear is inciting me to vote you. It's hard to make theories like you know nothing when you have a clear view of things.
Well the last year I have'nt had the time to play WW in the proper way due to workload and children and whatnot.. On my current assingment I'm always close to my computer and therefore have time to check in often.. not to mention that this game started small and RP:ing went out the window, you might have to check the old game thread to see my original me (From WW X - WW LXXXIX) ..
Right, that's indeed a possibility. I just never assumed a player would leave things to mere chance and sit back when he could actually play the game. The way I see it if the GA is not in contact with drxav and he doesn't come forward he will lose the game.
It's just al seems very clear to me. The GM basically told us we have one GA, one hunter and for the rest villagers left. It could be that I am seeing things completely wrong, but seeing as how yesterday there were 10 people alive. If the real GA is not in contact with you it means that either you or another person is lying and is thus the hunter. With the GA himself being one of the ten, he could have trusted 7 out of 9 people. A chance I would definately have taken.
Besides I have to start somewhere in analysis and if I don't make some assumptions I get no where since there is very little on the second hunter. I consider you cleared because it's unlikely the hunter would have pretended to be the GA and the GA being silent about it, so the person in contact with you is the GA or you are the GA yourself. That the GA is still alive proves that you are not the hunter or you would already have won. I think it's a pretty good assumption in this case.
But what we do need is that Drxav somehow stops us if we're starting to vote the GA.. But how could that be done without pointing out the GA??
Conclusion then would be that Drxav presents the target who will be hanged..
There are two major flaws to this though.
We put an awful lot of power in one mans hand and IF Drvax contact is in fact the hunter it would effectivly keep him safe..
Should we then have a informal voting on whom is most unlikly to be the hunter to wich a real GA could come forward to (If he's not the one in contact with Drxav)??
My bet then would be that Randakar is the most unlikly hunter but I can't be sure.. And it can also lose us the game.
It feels like nothing we can do can make our situation better.
Conclusion then would be that Drxav presents the target who will be hanged..
There are two major flaws to this though.
We put an awful lot of power in one mans hand and IF Drvax contact is in fact the hunter it would effectivly keep him safe..
Should we then have a informal voting on whom is most unlikly to be the hunter to wich a real GA could come forward to (If he's not the one in contact with Drxav)??
My bet then would be that Randakar is the most unlikly hunter but I can't be sure.. And it can also lose us the game.
It feels like nothing we can do can make our situation better.
But doing that would also give the hunter a person to lie to. It's risky for the hunter, yes, but we would have no way of knowing which one is the real GA.
Randakar also is apparently way more out of the loop than usual this game. Drxav in contact with the GA? When and how did I miss this?
Honestly, I'm not going to ask anyone to trust me with information like that though. For starters, that kind of thing can get me hunted
Ok. I am changing my mind. If both hunter and GA can contact me please and tell me which is you is which, this game will be a lot more interesting very soon!
</irony>
Najs, with 10 people alive and 2 people claiming to be the GA, the obvious course of action for the village is to lynch them both. So I kind of doubt that that sort of thing will happen.
Randakar also is apparently way more out of the loop than usual this game. Drxav in contact with the GA? When and how did I miss this?
Honestly, I'm not going to ask anyone to trust me with information like that though. For starters, that kind of thing can get me hunted
Ok. I am changing my mind. If both hunter and GA can contact me please and tell me which is you is which, this game will be a lot more interesting very soon!
</irony>
Najs, with 10 people alive and 2 people claiming to be the GA, the obvious course of action for the village is to lynch them both. So I kind of doubt that that sort of thing will happen.
:facepalm:
My mind must have blackouted for 5 seconds while I wrote my previous post.
Since I am at the moment unable, due to time constraints, to comb through the thread I will vote someone I got a hunch on.
Sorry Elmer,
Vote Paendrag
Sorry Elmer,
Vote Paendrag