Werewolf CLXXXIX: Dinner and a Murder

[tonkatoy5]

If Rovsea is the leak:
Rovsea is a wolf
he intentionally made it so EURO was able to be hunted
If Rovsea is a red wolf:
-he leaked the details of the JL to Hax
-he arranged to leaderlynch his packmate

If Rovsea is a yellow wolf:
-he leaked the details of the JL to someone who leaked it to Hax, and guessed the other pack had brutals because his did
-he arranged to leaderlynch someone who he guessed or knew was an opposing wolf
If Rovsea is not the leak:
-either/both of Luftwafer or tonka is the leak (is there any unknown party? Don't tell me who.)
if Luftwafer is the leak:
-he is probably not GA, but wolf/witch
-his protections didn't exist
-he changed his orders w/o telling Rovsea
if tonka is the leak:
-he has reason to try to screw Rovsea over
-Luftwafer's changed order makes no sense
if both are the leak:
-Luftwafer's changed order makes no sense, so he is lying (was it ever confirmed by Rovsea?).

I think Rovsea is probably a yellow wolf because it fits with what we know most.

Vote Rovsea

My last post is quoting a post by Rovsea confirming he told Luft to change protection to someone else, which as I stated makes no sense and he may have even outed himself with his, "they told me"

 

[aedan777]

If Rovsea is the leak:
Rovsea is a wolf
he intentionally made it so EURO was able to be hunted
If Rovsea is a red wolf:
-he leaked the details of the JL to Hax
-he arranged to leaderlynch his packmate

If Rovsea is a yellow wolf:
-he leaked the details of the JL to someone who leaked it to Hax, and guessed the other pack had brutals because his did
-he arranged to leaderlynch someone who he guessed or knew was an opposing wolf

If Rovsea is not the leak:
-either/both of Luftwafer or tonka is the leak (is there any unknown party? Don't tell me who.)

if Luftwafer is the leak:
-he is probably not GA, but wolf/witch
-his protections didn't exist
-he changed his orders w/o telling Rovsea

if tonka is the leak:
-he has reason to try to screw Rovsea over
-Luftwafer's changed order makes no sense

if both are the leak:
-Luftwafer's changed order makes no sense, so he is lying (was it ever confirmed by Rovsea?).

I think Rovsea is probably a yellow wolf because it fits with what we know most.

Vote Rovsea

There's another possibility- There is no leak, but the witch is in contact with the pack(s?) and scanned madchemist. This is the only real alternative to Rovsea being the leak, since Tonka knows too much to not have been in contact with Madchemist like he claims, and Madchemist wouldn't tell someone who wasn't clear. Luft being the leak is a stretch, since he didn't know MC was the priest, and claimed a role that would be very gutsy for a wolf to claim, and would almost certainly exist in a game of this size. That no other GA has come forward makes me think he's telling the truth.

 

[Rovsea]

Aziz doesn't include the possibility of a witch being in contact with Hax's pack, which could easily lead to a scanned and killed Priest.

As far as your question goes, Tonka, EURO told me to switch. Since he was a protector, and I wasn't privy to EURO's conversation with MC, I have no idea why he would ask for that, and I assumed he knew what he was talking about.

 

[tonkatoy5]

Aziz doesn't include the possibility of a witch being in contact with Hax's pack, which could easily lead to a scanned and killed Priest.

As far as your question goes, Tonka, EURO told me to switch. Since he was a protector, and I wasn't privy to EURO's conversation with MC, I have no idea why he would ask for that, and I assumed he knew what he was talking about.

Of course you claim the dead man contacted you it isn't like he can say otherwise. Come on Rovsea you have to admit this entire situation stinks, I mean right? Also Euro had no conversation with MC that I know of and I'm not sure why the hell he would tell you to take protection off of him.

Also you told Luft they wanted you to change protection which implies multiple people but of course I'm sure it was just a slip of a tongue or a faint.

 

[al-Aziz]

There's another possibility- There is no leak, but the witch is in contact with the pack(s?) and scanned madchemist. This is the only real alternative to Rovsea being the leak, since Tonka knows too much to not have been in contact with Madchemist like he claims, and Madchemist wouldn't tell someone who wasn't clear. Luft being the leak is a stretch, since he didn't know MC was the priest, and claimed a role that would be very gutsy for a wolf to claim, and would almost certainly exist in a game of this size. That no other GA has come forward makes me think he's telling the truth.

True enough- do you think this is a good enough lead to follow? The Rovsea theory is somewhat overcomplicated, but the witch theory doesn't explain how they knew the padre, who just happened to not be protected that night - though they could have just hunted a known JL member and hit the role by accident.

 

[Rovsea]

True enough- do you think this is a good enough lead to follow? The Rovsea theory is somewhat overcomplicated, but the witch theory doesn't explain how they knew the padre, who just happened to not be protected that night - though they could have just hunted a known JL member and hit the role by accident.

It was kind of obvious that EURO was the padre, I thought, although my perspective may have been biased.

 

[aedan777]

True enough- do you think this is a good enough lead to follow? The Rovsea theory is somewhat overcomplicated, but the witch theory doesn't explain how they knew the padre, who just happened to not be protected that night - though they could have just hunted a known JL member and hit the role by accident.

Euro was in the open for outing EL. With Rovsea being basically unhuntable with his lies, Euro was the obvious next choice. Perhaps they figured Euro had been protected immediately following his outing and would be open the next night.

The question comes down to whether we think it's more likely the JL suffered a blow like this by chance or by Rovsea being turned. Both require unlikely events to happen, and there are flaws with each. But I can't think of any other explanation with the facts provided. I'm still not sure which to trust at this point, and while the course of action is clear if we distrust Rovsea, it isn't clear what should be done if we do trust him.

 

[al-Aziz]

Euro was in the open for outing EL. With Rovsea being basically unhuntable with his lies, Euro was the obvious next choice. Perhaps they figured Euro had been protected immediately following his outing and would be open the next night.

The question comes down to whether we think it's more likely the JL suffered a blow like this by chance or by Rovsea being turned. Both require unlikely events to happen, and there are flaws with each. But I can't think of any other explanation with the facts provided. I'm still not sure which to trust at this point, and while the course of action is clear if we distrust Rovsea, it isn't clear what should be done if we do trust him.

If we decide we can trust him, there's not much to do but continue as before. Caesar Czech would be a good candidate, and I am a bit suspicious of Sleepyhead simply by virtue of a lack of attention. If we could continue as though this madness didn't happen and have someone trustworthy scan Rovsea, that would be terribly productive.

 

[Ironhead 5]

To clarify my accusations, If I'm right here and Rovsea is a wolf then we know at least three other wolves,

Ironhide- why else have the Ga protect him?
Ironhead- saved him
and probably Arky because chemist wanted to kill Arky and it would explain why if Rovsea is bad he would kill Chemist.

I'd say that is worth my death.

I don't think the GA ever protected Ironhide. And I certainly never saved him -- I am currently voting him, and would very much like to see him dead today.

Tonka, I told both Ironhead and Madchemist that Deathbywombat had contacted me claiming the Leader trait. Ironhead can back that up.

Confirmed.

Say, is anyone else getting a strong baddie vibe from al-Aziz? She is extremely intuitive for someone who is subbing into a somewhat complicated game.

 

[tonkatoy5]

Euro was in the open for outing EL. With Rovsea being basically unhuntable with his lies, Euro was the obvious next choice. Perhaps they figured Euro had been protected immediately following his outing and would be open the next night.

The question comes down to whether we think it's more likely the JL suffered a blow like this by chance or by Rovsea being turned. Both require unlikely events to happen, and there are flaws with each. But I can't think of any other explanation with the facts provided. I'm still not sure which to trust at this point, and while the course of action is clear if we distrust Rovsea, it isn't clear what should be done if we do trust him.

The wolves won't touch Rovsea due to this situation and his trait so if we don't lynch him and by lynch I mean a bandwagon because we know he can be and he controls a leader he will probably stick around for a long time and you will constantly be wondering if he is good or bad which will be pretty much impossible to tell. His death will bring closure and information his life will only bring confusion.

I don't think the GA ever protected Ironhide. And I certainly never saved him -- I am currently voting him, and would very much like to see him dead today.

Confirmed.

Say, is anyone else getting a strong baddie vibe from al-Aziz? She is extremely intuitive for someone who is subbing into a somewhat complicated game.

Switch ironhead and ironhide and it'll make since, I keep mixing you two up.

 

[tonkatoy5]

That said we could do this,

If rovsea stays alive which I don't think should happen Luft protects me and rovsea claims GA and protects Luft or alternatively rovsea could claim Padre and watch Luft though that is probably better for tomorrow.

In theory this would buy us a day to perhaps be used to kill Ironhide, which would give us a pretty substantial amount of information.

 

[Team Wombat]

You are very intelligent Wombat which is why I find it so odd you buy what Rovsea is saying so easily. And thank you because i had actually forgotten about the bridge between hax and Rovsea, Hax actually told Rovsea and Euro that he was brutal because Rovsea told chemist. which is why Euro said not to kill Hax.

So yeah I do think the two packs are in communication via someone.

First point: I haven't bought anything from anyone yet. It trips my radar when people claim that I've said/done things I haven't - that's exactly why I suspected Hax so strongly. And considering you managed to out Luft as GA, I'd normally be inclined to nail you to the wall for foolishly outing a valuable role and for implying I believed Rovsea, when I implied nothing of the sort. That said - I definitely believe you, Tonka, or at very least part of your story. You're definitely a good guy and obviously had contact with MC. I am trying to puzzle this out, because a lot of this makes no sense.
So Hax claimed brutal trait to Rovsea and EUROO7? That's... interesting, to say the least. (Also means Hax is a fool, but that's beside the point.) Would have been nice to know that before I pulled the switch. But I can also see why it would make Rovsea suspicious of Hax. He announces brutal - to the spokesman of the freaking Justice League? That's practically announcing to the goodies: "Well, yes, I'm a wolf, but don't lynch me, because if you do I'll hurt you." So that cuts both ways, I think.
EUROO7 was obviously padre - when he outed Eternaly Lost, it was because he said that Eternaly Lost killed Illiria. Ergo, padre. Not hard.

I propose a compromise candidate. Namely, Ironhide. After all, 6 of us agreed that Ironhide was suspicious the day before, and nothing has really changed except my vote manipulation - and that the entire JL went full exhibitionist on us (grumble, grumble). If Ironhide is a yellow, then we pretty much know Rovsea's role. If not (or if he's a red), then we don't kill one of the most valuable roles in the game and still have a chance at pulling this out.

Also...
Yellow pack is down 1, red pack down 3. Assuming 4 wolves per pack to start with, that means red has 1 and yellow has 3 - assuming no cursed shenanigans. Assuming only 3 wolves per pack, red is donezo and yellow has 2, again with the same caveats. Possibility of a 4/3 pack, as well. Assuming a witch is still on the board, add one to these totals. At worst, yellow has 5 effective votes (3 starter wolves, 1 cursed, and one witch), which would essentially be game over. At best, red has 0 and yellow only 2 (this scenario would require that Rovsea has not been turned), with a probable witch somewhere in the mix.

Vote Ironhide

 

[Sleepyhead]

That said we could do this,

If rovsea stays alive which I don't think should happen Luft protects me and rovsea claims GA and protects Luft or alternatively rovsea could claim Padre and watch Luft though that is probably better for tomorrow.

In theory this would buy us a day to perhaps be used to kill Ironhide, which would give us a pretty substantial amount of information.

Personally, I'm not sold on the JL being compromised bit, not with a witch around. Sheer luck on the baddies' part could be it as well. And I don't know about you, but in my view lynching the JL spokesperson and have him turn out a goodie is generally a game breaker of serious proportions. I'm fine with stringing up his most likely packmate though and then, based on that piece of information, reconsider the situation.

 

[Sleepyhead]

This post is mutually contradictory. You advocate being a man so you cannot get pregnant through intercourse with another man, but also claim that Jesus hated homosexuality. Also, why would Jesus hold a grudge against an entire genus in a taxonomic system that would be devised hundreds of years after he died of which he was a member? /Wagonlitz persona

Hey, I have nothing against homosexuals, in fact, I have plenty of friends who are going to hell!

 

[EnvyDemon]

Since when did this become a conversation about homosexuality???

 

[Sleepyhead]

 

[Rovsea]

I am still perfectly fine with Ironhide as a candidate. I said originally that I thought Hax and Ironhide made good packmates, and that hasn't really changed since.

I feel blessed to be in this position; though it is true, I am no priest, or padre.
I am, however, a leader of this village, and I plan to be brutal on wolves,
always keeping one eye open for the village. For the village I will be a guardian angel.
Despite the accusations against me, I can say with confidence that I am no
sorcerer, no witch, but I will assassinate the wolves.

Vote IronhideG1

 

[Gen. Skobelev]

important goodie
goodie
robber pack
fighting pack
sorcerer

NIGHT 0

Spoiler

k-59 the one eye open villager was hunted.
Yakman the plotter werewolf of the robber pack was taken out by k-59.

DAY 1/NIGHT 1

Spoiler

Comm Cody: 7
madchemist [369]
Hax [401]
CaesarCzech [403]
Jacksonian Missionary [367 Hax -> 424]
EUROO7 [393 Illiria -> 420 Wagonlitz -> 437 Jacksonian Missionary -> 439 Rovsea -> 448]
Rovsea [365 JermanTK -> 456]
JermanTK [364 Jacksonian Missionary -> 447 Rovsea -> 457]

JermanTK: 5
tamius23 [362]
Ironhead 5 [404]
Eternaly_Lost [405]
tonkatoy5 [385 EUROO7 -> 426]
Comm Cody [386 Rovsea -> 438 unvote -> 438 plotter]

Rovsea: 4
Luftwafer [388 madchemist -> 390]
Gen. Skobelev [406]
Capt. Kiwi [411]
johho888 [422]

Jacksonian Missionary: 2
Sleepyhead [396]
Wagonlitz [395 Comm Cody -> 451]

tamius23: 1
aedan777 [340]

Ironhide G1: 1
deathbywombat [348]

Dexander: 1
Health [351]

deathbywombat: 1
Ironhide G1 [370]

CaesarCzech: 1
al-Aziz [387]

Luftwafer: 1
Illiria [392]

Sleepyhead: 1
Dexander [394]

Comm Cody the plotter villager is lynched.

NIGHT 1

Dexander the distiller villager is hunted.

DAY 2/NIGHT 2

Spoiler

Health: 6
Gen. Skobelev [496]
aedan777 [520]
johho888 [524]
Wagonlitz [533]
Illiria [506 JermanTK -> 551]
JermanTK [536 tamius23 -> 560]

CaesarCzech: 4
madchemist [475]
Hax [516]
tonkatoy5 [527]
EUROO7 [531]

JermanTK: 3
Jacksonian Missionary [476]
Ironhead 5 [483]
tamius23 [538]

Rovsea: 3
Ironhide G1 [481]
CaesarCzech [491]
Luftwafer [513]

Ironhead 5: 3
Rovsea [487]
Health [489 JermanTK -> 501]
Sleepyhead [497 Ironhide G1 -> 530]

EUROO7: 1
Capt. Kiwi [502]

Luftwafer: 1
al-Aziz [515]

Sleepyhead: 1
Eternaly_Lost [519]

Hax: 1
deathbywombat [529]


Health the assassin padre is lynched.

NIGHT 2

Wagonlitz the apprentice is hunted.
tamius23 the witness villager is shot by assassin.

DAY 3/NIGHT 3

Spoiler

johho888: 13
aedan777 [632]
Illiria [637]
Luftwafer [638]
JermanTK [639]
Gen. Skobelev [643]
Capt. Kiwi [605 Illiria -> 646]
Ironhide G1 [650]
Ironhead 5 [607 tonkatoy5 -> 651]
Rovsea [652]
Jacksonian Missionary [585 JermanTK -> 659]
deathbywombat [660]
tonkatoy5 [588 Illiria -> 661]
CaesarCzech [662]
Hax [669]
Eternaly_Lost [670]
madchemist [613 JermanTK -> 686]

JermanTK: 1
Sleepyhead [619 johho888 -> 621]

tonkatoy5: 1
EUROO7 [611]

Gen. Skobelev: 1
johho888 [plotter]


not voted: 1
al-Aziz []


Ironhide G1 tried to unvote Rovsea in post 650 but he hadn’t voted.
EUROO7 tried to vote johho888 in post 676 without unvoting.


johho888 the plotter sorcerer is lynched.

NIGHT 3

Illiria the seer is shot by assassin.
JermanTK the werewolf with used assassin shot of the fighting pack is assassinated.
There is no hunt.

DAY 4/NIGHT 4

Spoiler

PRE-OUTING [778]

CaesarCzech: 3
Sleepyhead [723]
Rovsea [734]
Hax [711 deathbywombat -> 768]

Luftwafer: 3
aedan777 [724]
Jacksonian Missionary [715 Sleepyhead -> 736 unvote -> 741]
deathbywombat [720 aedan777 -> 747]

Ironhide G1: 2
madchemist [716]
Gen. Skobelev [728]

deathbywombat: 2
CaesarCzech [718 Sleepyhead -> 735]
Luftwafer [749]

Sleepyhead: 1
Ironhead 5 [710]

not voted: 6
al-Aziz []
EUROO7 []
Capt. Kiwi []
Ironhide G1 []
tonkatoy5 []
Eternaly_Lost []

DEADLINE

Eternaly_Lost: 11
EUROO7 [778]
deathbywombat [720 aedan777 -> 747 Luftwafer -> 780]
Gen. Skobelev [728 Ironhide G1 -> 781]
Hax [711 deathbywombat -> 768 CaesarCzech -> 783]
aedan777 [724 Luftwafer -> 785]
Rovsea [734 CaesarCzech -> 787]
madchemist [716 Ironhide G1 -> 788]
Capt. Kiwi [779 CaesarCzech -> 789]
Sleepyhead [723 CaesarCzech -> 790]
tonkatoy5 [791]
Luftwafer [749 deathbywombat -> 793]

deathbywombat: 1
CaesarCzech [718 Sleepyhead -> 735]

Luftwafer: 1
Jacksonian Missionary [715 Sleepyhead -> 736 unvote -> 741]

Sleepyhead: 1
Ironhead 5 [710]

not voted: 3
al-Aziz []
Ironhide G1 []
Eternaly_Lost []

Eternaly_Lost the vampire with used assassin shot of the robber pack is lynched.

NIGHT 4

Jacksonian Missionary the villager is hunted.

DAY 5/NIGHT 5

Spoiler

Ironhide G1: 6
Gen. Skobelev [837]
Sleepyhead [842]
Luftwafer [845]
EUROO7 [854]
madchemist [840 al-Aziz -> 868]
Hax [841 deathbywombat -> 878]

Hax: 4
Rovsea [829]
deathbywombat [831]
CaesarCzech [834]
Capt. Kiwi [871]

Luftwafer: 3
aedan777 [832]
al-Aziz [847]

al-Aziz: 1
tonkatoy5 [846]

deathbywombat: 1
Ironhide G1 [852]

CaesarCzech: 1
Ironhead 5 [826]

Capt. Kiwi tried to unvote Hax and vote Luftwafer in post 880 but deadline had passed.

Hax the brutal werewolf of the robbing pack was leaderlynched by deathbywombat.
madchemist the priest is brutalised by Hax.

NIGHT 5

EUROO7 the leader padre was hunted.

 

[al-Aziz]

Can someone explain why Ironhide is under suspicion please?

 

[Gen. Skobelev]

Huh, things really blew up in the thread last night. Did none of you ever think of.. you know, doing this in private conversations? I guess blowing everything in public at least ensures wolves will get all the knowledge there is. My head almost hurts from thinking of this mess. Seems this is again a game for self-outing scanners (that's the third if we cound Johho).

And yes, ghosts need to shut up. While it's great to laugh at the mess in thread actually pointing out who, where and why is not allowed.

Now, at least we get some more wolf info from the voting records. Hax has much more meaningful record so there might be useful tidbits from it.

day 1: on Comm Cody, don't get votes.
day 2: on CaesarCzech, preferring him over Rovsea & Ironhead.
day 3: voted Johho after he outed himself.
day 4: again on CaesarCzech, with his vote earlier on deathbywombat.
day 5: again on deathbywombat, switches to Ironhide G1 only when the race turns into two-way race between Ironhide G1 and Hax himself.

Eh.. not that great after all. His unwillingess to vote Ironhide at first could indicate there's connection but Ironhide could very well be part of the other pack, too.

Anyways. I'm not sure what to think of Rovsea. Tonka seems to be flipping quite badly here which could be understandable with priest and padre dying on same update. Then again, apparently Rovsea had organised for death of a wolf and Euro had revealed himself in the thread. Barring any inside info I'm not going to condone voting Rovsea just because Tonka goes ballistic.

Ironhide G1 is potentially on either pack and I find him just as good lynch candidate as yesterday. Seeing how he already has some votes I think I'll

vote aedan777.

There is nothing to suggest he is unlikely to belong to either pack. Yeah, not the greatest reason but there it is.