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Daffius

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The Werewolf pack (2 cultists and 2 wolves dead)
Panzer Commader - cultist
Teep - cultist (brutal)
narref - wolf (SA)
EUROO7 - wolf (OEO)

The Vampire pack (3 wolves dead)
THE_SPLIT - wolf
aedan777 - wolf (brutal)
Chieron - wolf (councillor)

The Nazi zombie pack (2 cultists and 1 wolf dead)
Dadarian - cultist
Lemeard - cultist (SA)
Arkasas - wolf (brutal)




So, based on this, what do we think? 3 wolves per pack with the vampire cultists still hanging on or being non-existant, or 4+ wolves + cultists per pack, or some random number that varies between them?

There could potentially be a lot more baddies out there than I imagined, which I am now getting quite worried about - there might be only one wolf left in the Vampire pack (assuming they're not extinguished), but if they're running about with a load of cultists they're still in a strong position vote-wise. And the Nazi-Zombies seem to have clearly been happy to shed their cultists and unsaveable packmates and could now be in a really strong position in regards to vote analysis. What's left of the Werewolf pack is anyone's guess. Marty doing what seems to be a simple set-up (2 wolves, 2 cultists with some good traits) but then giving all the other packs absolutely nothing like it is eminently possible. 3+2 in 3 packs would have given us 15 out of 53 assigned baddies at start, 4+2 18 out of 53. What seems a likely number? Worry, worry...

Based on the first page:

Slaves (Cultists): Work with the wolves and count for parity if attached to a pack, cultists will start attached to a pack. Can only win if its pack wins and dies if the last wolf in the pack dies.

If it's indeed 50% baddies, then we're looking at 6x3+sorcerer. With the 6 being 4 wolves and 2 cultists if similar packs.

That does give us a good chance though, because by catching the last vampire wolf, theoritically, we could kill 3 baddies with one lynch. As it's game over for the cultists if the last wolf dies, there is no way they'd be voting for their wolf master - even as alibi - as it'd be over one way or another for them if he dies. So keeping an eye out for full reluctance in voting someone...
 

Comm Cody

I am the one who outs
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Okay, how many people think that I really scanned Arkasas?

Because what if I didn't?
 

Gen. Skobelev

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Do we have any idea how fast Euro got that priest scan reports after deadline on day 4? If he got them promptly, I believe we may find packmates alibi voting on that day since they would know outing was coming, cultist was found and it would provide good opportunity to get goodie points when a safe opportunity to vote against packmate before outing was presented. Euro would naturally tell his packmates what's what as soon as possible and they would take advantage of knowing that their packmate would be outed and thus safe to vote against.

Here's the day four stuff.

DAY 4

PRE-OUTING

Rovsea: 14
ShoGul [3318]
Wagonlitz [3266 Falc -> 3345]
Kaiserohaib [3235 Kaetje -> 3283 Falc -> 3347]
J. Passepartout [3359]
Walrus [3418]
tonkatoy5 [3420]
Falc [3451]
Kaetje [3233 Yakman -> 3466]
Rascar Capac [3450 snoop -> 3472]
Cymsdale [3364 Kaetje -> 3481]
tonkatoy5 [3305 snoop -> 3531]
sbr [3317 narref -> 3535]
Hax [3274 Falc -> 3362 Kaetje -> 3539]
Chieron [3558]

narref: 12
tamius23 [3243]
Dadarian [3256]
Nautilu [3342]
snoopdogg [3252 sbr -> 3304 narref -> 3306 tonkatoy5 -> 3421]
Ithvan [3427]
Daffius [3456]
Cliges [3469]
randakar [3332 narref -> 3332 Rascar Capac -> 3387 LatinKaiser -> 3475]
madchemist [3333 punkbob -> 3527]
Comm Cody [3440 EUROO7 -> 3479 snoop -> 3544]
Arkasas [3465 snoop -> 3546]
Rovsea [3548]

snoopdogg: 7
enkhuush [3311]
Gen. Marshall [3336]
Plank of Wood [3454]
leksu [3464]
Punkbob [3471]
narref [3278 tamius -> 3495]
jonti-h [3505]

Kaetje: 3
humancalculator [3314]
LatinKaiser [3350 snoopdogg -> 3376]
AsdfeZxcas [3281 Rascar Capac -> 3528 Rovsea -> 3543 narref -> 3551]

AsdfeZxcas: 2
Gen. Skobelev [3383]
johho888 [3498 snoopdogg -> 3502]

tamius: 2
Galbatorix994 [3497]
EUROO7 [3513]

LatinKaiser: 1
Teep [3379]

Not voted: 4
Yakman []
alxeu []
jcucc []
Gots []

PRE-OUTING ENDS, FINAL VOTE COUNT

narref: 23
tamius23 [3243]
Dadarian [3256]
Nautilu [3342]
snoopdogg [3252 sbr -> 3304 narref -> 3306 k-59 -> 3421]
Ithvan [3427]
Daffius [3456]
Cliges [3469]
randakar [3332 narref -> 3332 Rascar Capac -> 3387 LatinKaiser -> 3475]
Comm Cody [3440 EUROO7 -> 3479 snoopdogg -> 3544]
Arkasas [3465 snoopdogg -> 3546]
Rovsea [3548]
walrus [3418 Rovsea -> 3565]
madchemist [3333 punkbob -> 3527 narref -> 3552 Rovsea -> 3566]
J. Passepartout [3359 Rovsea -> 3569]
Yakman [3570]
Hax [3274 Falc -> 3362 Kaetje -> 3539 Rovsea -> 3571]
AsdfeZxcas [3281 Rascar Capac -> 3528 Rovsea -> 3543 narref -> 3551 Kaetje -> 3572]
EUROO7 [3513 tamius23 -> 3573]
Cymsdale [3364 Kaetje -> 3481 Rovsea -> 3575]
Rascar Capac [3450 snoopdogg -> 3472 Rovsea -> 3576]
johho888 [3498 snoopdogg -> 3502 AsdfeZxcas -> 3577]
Gen. Skobelev [3382 AsdfeZxcas -> 3578]
Chieron [ 3558 Rovsea -> 3581]

Rovsea: 8
ShoGul [3318]
Wagonlitz [3266 Falc -> 3345]
tonkatoy5 [3420]
Falc [3451]
Kaetje [3233 Yakman -> 3466]
k-59 [3305 snoopdogg -> 3531]
sbr [3317 narref -> 3535]
Kaisersohaib [3235 Kaetje -> 3283 Falc -> 3347 Rovsea -> 3553 Kaetje -> 3568]

snoopdogg: 7
enkhuush [3311]
Gen. Marshall [3336]
Plank of Wood [3454]
leksu [3464]
punkbob [3471]
narref [3278 tamius23 -> 3496]
jonti-h [3505]

Kaetje: 2
humancalculator [3314]
LatinKaiser [3350 snoopdogg -> 3376]

tamius23: 1
Galbatorix994 [3497]

LatinKaiser: 1
Teep [3379]


not voted: 3
Gots []
jcucc []
alxeu []


narref, spiritually attuned werewolf of werewolf pack is lynched.


I wouldn't be too surprised to find werewolves voting on narref on that pre-outing vote count.


Okay, how many people think that I really scanned Arkasas?

Because what if I didn't?

Uh, what?
 

randakar

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EDIT: re J. Pass he also helped lynch Panzer from the same pack as Teep so I doubt he is one of the Teep alibi voters (if there is any). Fully agree on jonti's bitching.

Right.

Unvote J. Pass


I know running up the same person isn't the most useful and I might be blammed for having tunnel vision, but something with Falc just does not stick. We've had cases, we've had bandwagons, he is unlynchable.

I'll stick with Falc this time for the same reasons as previously.

Vote Falc

Well, who knows. I'm not all that opposed to voting him, either.

Vote Falc

May I suggest running up two candidates today? Also can someone request from Hax to stop harassing me with his pointless PMs? I do not believe he is cleared and requesting a role via PM is stupid.

Well, to be fair, he doesn't have the information that we have, now does he?
 

johho888

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Do we have any idea how fast Euro got that priest scan reports after deadline on day 4? If he got them promptly, I believe we may find packmates alibi voting on that day since they would know outing was coming, cultist was found and it would provide good opportunity to get goodie points when a safe opportunity to vote against packmate before outing was presented. Euro would naturally tell his packmates what's what as soon as possible and they would take advantage of knowing that their packmate would be outed and thus safe to vote against.

Here's the day four stuff.
<snip>

I wouldn't be too surprised to find werewolves voting on narref on that pre-outing vote count.
You should cross check that with the day 3 narref voters. People like tamius that voted him also day 3 are probably not alibi voters.

EDIT: That goes for Cliges and Daffius as well as tamius.
 

Hax

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Spy reports mentioning living players


randakar as Richard Wilkins III (Wagonlitz)
"After spending so much time on Buffy, you figure the logical step is to check out her paramour, Mayor Wilkins. You wait until late at night, then slip out towards his room. Just as you get near his room, you come upon Rovsea coming the other direction. What was he doing there? Were you the last person to see him alive? He appears worried by what was on his mind, rightly so, in hindsight. You stake out randakar's room, but he doesn't appear to be in. Someone else is, though - Winston Churchill! After he leaves, you follow him. After a good 20 minutes of walking behind him, randakar appears from view. Humancalculator gasps, as if finally realising something, then disappears. Randakar hears the noise, and you duck behind a bust of Frederick the Great as he looks your way. You hear the sound of a weapon being drawn, however randakar runs away. You judge it wise not to pursue him. Instead you try and find your bearings, as you have no idea where you are."

randakar as Richard Wilkins III (walrus)
"Today you intend to spy on Richard Wilkins III. However, he is not at his room when you get there. You also hear two others in the area, waiting, but you cannot make out either of them. Are they connected?"

Ithvan as Bertrand Russell (walrus)
"You cast your inquisitive talents on Bertrand Russell last night, however he does nothing of note. In fact, he heads to bed extremely early, and appears notably tired as he enters his chambers. It appears he did not get much sleep last night."

LatinKaiser as Niccolo Machiavelli (walrus)
"Your target for tonight's nocturnal investigation is Incitatus(Rovsea-spying thief). You stake out the corridor where he sleeps for the night. Hours go by without anything happening, not a sound, not a bathroom trip. Just as you are about to give it up as a lost cause, you hear the bed creak, and footsteps moving towards the door. You quickly hide, just before Incitatus leaves his room, dressed not in his usual bathrobe, but instead all in black. You follow him through unfamiliar rooms and staircases, you turn a corner and find yourself in front of a large door, clearly leading to some kind of hallway, although not one you remember being used during the day. The large doors open, long enough for you to hear several people talking in low voices, and who should walk out but Niccolo Machiavelli? (LatinKaiser) He turns to his left and goes down a different route. He appears not to have seen you. In the heat of the moment you forgot momentarily where Incitatus went, you try to search him out but you have no such luck. He seemed to vanish into thin air."

Jcucc As Doctor Seuss (randakar)
"You cast your spying eye on Dr. Seuss tonight. However, he seems to spend most of his night in his room. After a while he exits, but as you watch him, it looks as if he is merely going to the toilet. You slip into his room, and quickly scan around. You see a box of photo albums, that have evidently been looked at recently, but that is the only item of interest you can gather quickly. You leave immediately, and not a moment too soon as the Doctor returns from the bathroom shortly after. You puzzle over what you have seen. You didn't see much, but did the photo album mean anything?"

Gen. Skobelev as Lord Acton/AsdfeZxcas as Sherlock Holmes (randakar)
"You spy on Thomas Hobbes tonight. He stays up relatively late tonight, drinking in the lounge and playing cards. You join in the revelries to keep close to him. At long last he leaves, and after an appropriately long wait, you make your excuses and leave too, following him. Curiously, he does not go to his room, but to a secluded, secondary living room. You dare not go in but you hear several voices inside. Amongst them you can pick out those of Hobbes, Burke and Vizzini. They speak so low, however, that you cannot make anything out. After a while you leave before you get caught. You pass his room on the way by, you nearly miss it, but in the corner of your eye you make out someone standing in the shadows, watching Hobbes's door. The clothes, posture and hair make it clear it is an English gentleman, either Lord Acton or Sherlock Holmes, but you cannot decide between them. You hurry back to your room."

Gen. Skobelev as Lord Acton/AsdfeZxcas as Sherlock Holmes (randakar)
"You spy on William of Ockham tonight. As you talk towards his bedchambers, you see Soren Kierkegaard walking the other way, in a hurried fashion. Curious, as he lives nowhere near. As you get to his bedchambers, you see the same English gentleman you saw before, slipping out of EUROO7's room and running away. Again, you could not decide who it was. He foolishly leaves EURO's door open and unlocked. You enter."

AsdfeZxcas as Sherlock Holmes (randakar)
"You spy on Sherlock Holmes tonight. However, he goes to bed early, and does nothing for the rest of the night. It appears you have not gained much from tonight, although were the roles reversed, perhaps something might be inferred."

ShoGul as Sappho (randakar)
"You follow Edmund Burke from the dining room after supper, expecting him to to go to bed. He doesn't. Instead you see him visiting first Sappho then Vizzini then Plotinus. He goes to bed afterwards and does little for the rest of the night,"




Has there been any more posted spy reports?
 

Gen. Skobelev

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You should cross check that with the day 3 narref voters. People like tamius that voted him also day 3 are probably not alibi voters.

EDIT: That goes for Cliges and Daffius as well as tamius.

Actually day three would be also good place for alibi voting. Keep in mind that Euro made public outing of Lemeard then so it's not unreasonable to assume his pack knew outing was coming and would have good opportunity to vote packmate with the knowledge that the votes will switch.

edit:

Hax, if you have night numbers to add to those, it'd be swell.

edit2: that "English gentleman" is Lord acton (i.e. me). I got spied at least twice when padreing.. Cymsdale and Euro, I seem to recall.
 
Last edited:

Gen. Skobelev

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Galbatorix994: 4
Nautilu [5573]
tamius23 [5577]
J. Passepartout [5609]
walrus [5612]

Falc: 4
AsdfeZxcas [5567]
Comm Cody [5578]
Daffius [5602]
randakar [5591 J. Passepartout -> 5626]

Gots: 3
enkhuush [5578]
johho888 [5581 Galbatorix994 -> 5584]
Galbatorix994 [5600]

jonti-h: 2
Gen. Marshall [5593]
alxeu [5598]

J. Passepartout: 1
Gots [5597]

Rascar Capac: 1
Hax [5613]


not voted: 11
Kaisersohaib []
Cliges []
LatinKaiser []
jcucc []
Ithvan []
Rascar Capac []
Falc []
jonti-h []
ShoGul []
Gen. Skobelev []
leksu []
 

Gen. Skobelev

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I suppose I should put the alibi vote thingy into test.

vote Daffius
 

Kaisersohaib

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vote ( HM the Kinky Lord ) Jonti-H
 

Ithvan

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Skobie, when you do one of these coloured vote counts again, could you put each day in a separate spoiler? That'll make it a bit easier to read and scroll through. :)

I'd like to run up Asdfzxcas, or however his name's spelled. His voting record isn't particularly good and he's not received any attention. But I think he's a candidate for another day.


Vote jonti, to bring it up nice and close.
 

randakar

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Not everything is public. Some of it should be, though.

ShoGul as Sappho (randakar)
"You follow Edmund Burke from the dining room after supper, expecting him to to go to bed. He doesn't. Instead you see him visiting first Sappho then Vizzini then Plotinus. He goes to bed afterwards and does little for the rest of the night,"

That one's actually a report on madchemist, not a report on shocul.

I guess I should mention the latest report, in this context:

marty99 said:
You spy on Robert Zimmerman AKA Bob Dylan tonight. He seems fairly mild-tempered, and does nothing of note that night - that you could see.

It's not much, but it does clear him of being part of the pack that hunted this night.
 

Hax

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Hax, if you have night numbers to add to those, it'd be swell.

edit2: that "English gentleman" is Lord acton (i.e. me). I got spied at least twice when padreing.. Cymsdale and Euro, I seem to recall.

I'm sorry but the night numbers are missing for the majority of them. The spies should have a bit more control on their stuff...

How do you know you got spied?

That one's actually a report on madchemist, not a report on shocul.

I know but I only add the spy reports where still living persons are mentioned. ShoGul was mentioned in the spy report of madchemist.
 

walrus

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walrus could you please explain this post? Did you really scan alxeu or did you mistake his name with somebody else?
I spied on Alexu and then Chieron one night after the other* - in my haste, tiredness and due to Marty using their RP names in the report rather than their usernames, I voted for the wrong one.

*It may have been the other way around
 

ShoGuL

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Village council members
snoopdogg - Cursed Villager
LatinKaiser
Yakman2 - Witness Priest (claimed apprentice)
alxeu
Chieron - Wolf of the Vampire pack
Cymsdale - 2nd in command Villager
madchemist - Hunter High-Sorcerer



Random thought, but what are the odds that there was symmetry in the council? I realize it puts the odds in the baddies favour, but that would be made up for by them possibly not knowing of the others?

Do we have anything clearing the remaining council members?