Werewolf CIV : When the saints go marching in

[Rysz]

This is the second time that one of my family members starts discussing the game with me on Google Chat. I am growing a bit suspicious of this (although the first time he was indeed just a villager). Why discuss in a chat, what you can discuss in the game thread? Why should we, who have multiple options of communication which other players not have (except for PM, which anyone can use), make use of that? The discussion needs to be in the thread, except for the wolves and perhaps the JL. But the wolves know the roles of the other wolves, and the JL (usually) consists of the seer and scanned villagers. Except for a failure on the secureness of the JL, there is no role information to be discovered through those communication channels.

Discussion behind the scenes like these, are for the purpose of trying to find role information. I believe these should be in the open, or at least the information gained by it should be in the open rather sooner than later. For it is in the interest of the villagers to get as much information as possible, so they can focus on finding the real wolves. Extrapolating on that, I think villagers (except for those in the JL, but they are not plain villagers anymore in that case), have no interest in working behind the scenes, as it withholds information from the game thread. Information which can be useful for the other villagers as well. Would I be way off if I estimate that there is almost as much communication behind the scenes as in this thread? Is that the reason why more often than not, it is quiet in the thread?

Probing other players to find out their roles. I really don't see why that should be done behind the scenes. Why not do it in the open? Just ask a directed question: "Rysz, what do you think about Randakar's switch?" The other player can choose to answer, or ignore. He could be voted upon to force him to answer. Either way, there is information to be gained (a non-answer is information as well). And everyone KNOWS that information. Everyone can use that information to draw their own picture of the roles distribution.

There are exceptions ofcourse. Any knowledge which can be used by the wolves against the village (and especially the JL), should be handled carefully.

Anyway, this morning, Sedracus asked me what we could do against the heretics and infidels. He thought Randakar's sudden vote change to e_L, and subsequent bandwagon bizar. Especially without seer.

Well, I'll answer that in here. I am not amazed by Randakar's action. I am amazed though by the hugh bandwagon, considering that other votechanges didn't produce bandwagons. However, I don't think that says anything about Randakar's role, only that he seems to have some part of AOK reincarnated in him. Furthermore, I don't think Randakar would choose to sacrifice a packmate life like this, especially when there was no danger (AT ALL) to his packmate. I am 100% sure Randakar is not a packmate of E_L. He could still be a wolf from another pack ofcourse.

What to do against the infidels? To get back to Sedracus' first question. Not much at the moment, except of making sure there is as much discussion and information in the thread. So there.

 

[Rysz]

Well, we can't count on that at all, either.

Ofcourse not. but the village must remember that, at least for now, we must make sure we don't focus on one (or two) of the packs, because at the moment, that is all there is from keeping us from parity.

 

[randakar]

Well, Eternaly_Lost's first vote was for Lurken, and put Lurken into a tie with Adamus and Boris ze Spider...

So Lurken is highly unlikely to be a Schismatic.

Eternaly_Lost may have been protecting one of them, or both of them.

Maybe. Or he just wanted to create a TIE for the sake of killing as many people as possible. He's been doing that a lot in games of late, especially as a baddie.

Adamus switched onto the Eternaly_Lost bandwagon reasonably quickly, but after it had already got 3 other votes... a perfect situation to hide in a bandwagon...

Don't forget, Adamus was on the chopping block himself. He would have taken that chance to move the vote elsewhere regardless of his role. That vote looked like a survival vote.
So no, Adamus doesn't look terribly suspicious to me.

If you want to look for possible packmates of EL's, I'd look at the people jumping on the tail end of that wagon, after EL confessed. Those people may have been around before then, noted the attempt to swing the vote, and then held back - they didn't want their packmate dead, of course.
When EL confessed however he forced their hand.

Of course, that's the theory. The same disclaimer you made applies here.

 

[Jopi]

I'm going to vote the_hdk. He voted Lurken yesterday (mind you, I can't be bothered to check when), and Lurken is less likely a baddie than pretty much anyone else here except randakar. Also E_L voted Lurken, so we already have one baddie Lurken-voter, we might have more. Not from the same pack, I'd expect, but a dead wolf is a dead wolf.

Vote the_hdk

 

[Boris ze Spider]

Vote Slinky, for jumping ship after El admitted he was a wolf.

 

[Jolt]

I'm gonna go with Adamus too.

Vote: Adamus

 

[Rysz]

Vote Slinky, for jumping ship after El admitted he was a wolf.

I'm sorry, what?
Everyone online, be them villager of wolf alike, would have jumped the ship.
It's much more interesting to see what happened before his confession.

 

[Lurken]

Vote Slinky, for jumping ship after El admitted he was a wolf.

Now that is...highly suspicious. Why Slinky? Slinky had every reason, nae every duty as a villager to do the switch when we got a baddie that outted himself.

If anything, Boris, you are suspicious because of that action.

 

[Sedracus]

This is the second time that one of my family members starts discussing the game with me on Google Chat. I am growing a bit suspicious of this (although the first time he was indeed just a villager). Why discuss in a chat, what you can discuss in the game thread? Why should we, who have multiple options of communication which other players not have (except for PM, which anyone can use), make use of that? The discussion needs to be in the thread, except for the wolves and perhaps the JL. But the wolves know the roles of the other wolves, and the JL (usually) consists of the seer and scanned villagers. Except for a failure on the secureness of the JL, there is no role information to be discovered through those communication channels.

Discussion behind the scenes like these, are for the purpose of trying to find role information. I believe these should be in the open, or at least the information gained by it should be in the open rather sooner than later. For it is in the interest of the villagers to get as much information as possible, so they can focus on finding the real wolves. Extrapolating on that, I think villagers (except for those in the JL, but they are not plain villagers anymore in that case), have no interest in working behind the scenes, as it withholds information from the game thread. Information which can be useful for the other villagers as well. Would I be way off if I estimate that there is almost as much communication behind the scenes as in this thread? Is that the reason why more often than not, it is quiet in the thread?

Probing other players to find out their roles. I really don't see why that should be done behind the scenes. Why not do it in the open? Just ask a directed question: "Rysz, what do you think about Randakar's switch?" The other player can choose to answer, or ignore. He could be voted upon to force him to answer. Either way, there is information to be gained (a non-answer is information as well). And everyone KNOWS that information. Everyone can use that information to draw their own picture of the roles distribution.

There are exceptions ofcourse. Any knowledge which can be used by the wolves against the village (and especially the JL), should be handled carefully.

Anyway, this morning, Sedracus asked me what we could do against the heretics and infidels. He thought Randakar's sudden vote change to e_L, and subsequent bandwagon bizar. Especially without seer.

Well, I'll answer that in here. I am not amazed by Randakar's action. I am amazed though by the hugh bandwagon, considering that other votechanges didn't produce bandwagons. However, I don't think that says anything about Randakar's role, only that he seems to have some part of AOK reincarnated in him. Furthermore, I don't think Randakar would choose to sacrifice a packmate life like this, especially when there was no danger (AT ALL) to his packmate. I am 100% sure Randakar is not a packmate of E_L. He could still be a wolf from another pack ofcourse.

What to do against the infidels? To get back to Sedracus' first question. Not much at the moment, except of making sure there is as much discussion and information in the thread. So there.

.. very well, you forum-purist.

Randakar, was that a lucky guess or did you know EL was a wolf?
Why did you save Euro and Adamus?

 

[Adamus]

I'm gonna go with Adamus too.

Vote: Adamus

I think the class would like to know why your whispering your vote at the back of the class so noone notices. Suspect...

 

[drxav]

On one hand:

I dont like Emperors...
vote Lurken

Sounds like a good reason to start with.
vote Lurken

Vote: Lurken
Emperors have no business dealing with spiritual matters!

Well...the cats out of the box now =P
And yes, I revisited HDKs vote against me and ELs...darn they were shady reasons.

On the other hand:

I hunted AOK so I could claim I hunted AOK and none of you would believe me.

AOK hunted night one
EUROO7 lynched day one
Yep, seems like a good game, guys.

Shush, I plan to save you on last minute packmate.

I knew I could count on you, my brutal leader wolfmate.

Unvote EURO
Vote Eternaly_lost

Je maintiendrai:

VOTE EUROO

Could the next pack please hunt Raczynski, we don't want him kill one of us after we lynch him.

 

[joebthegreat]

VOTE Randakar

Under the suspicion that he is a baddie due to the last baddie we lynched publicly asking for him to be hunted. Clever ploy, but your pack mate's death will not save you!

Yeah... I'm willing to bet my life on randakar and Eternaly_Lost not being in the same pack. Switching to a bandwagon on your packmate to look less suspicious is one thing. Starting the bandwagon that gets your packmate killed (when there's absolutely no way your packmate would die otherwise) doesn't happen. Especially this early in the game.

Basically, I don't think randakar is stupid enough to mess his own pack up this early, so whatever he is he is NOT a Schismatic wolf.

Vote Slinky, for jumping ship after El admitted he was a wolf.

???

This line of reasoning is broken. If somebody admits they are a wolf, you lay the smackdown. This is in the great WW Bible. Are you telling me you don't read the WW Bible?

Maybe. Or he just wanted to create a TIE for the sake of killing as many people as possible. He's been doing that a lot in games of late, especially as a baddie.

The vote was way too early to have a serious chance of causing a tie. If you look at the situation surrounding his vote it's more likely he was trying to put Lurken in the running to knock someone else out... or else he was just voting someone just to vote someone, and none of these people have any relation.

Never underestimate middle of the day votes. You can steer the village discussion onto different people depending on where you place your vote, and later in the day after several shifts in discussion, nobody even remembers your vote, and how it might have been protecting someone.

Don't look at the final votecount for Day 1, you won't get very far. Look at the run up between Boris ze Spider and Adamus, walrus and Lurken, when did Orange Yoshi start to look like he might get run up? When did Orange Yoshi and Boris ze Spider fall from the public eye? When did EUROO7 get run up and how did that affect the other people that were possible lynches at the time?

That is where the analysis is to be found. Look back on this as we find more baddies, and I guarantee you you're going to find wolf packs protecting each other in subtle ways, ways that you otherwise wouldn't notice looking at a final votecount.

Don't forget, Adamus was on the chopping block himself. He would have taken that chance to move the vote elsewhere regardless of his role. That vote looked like a survival vote.
So no, Adamus doesn't look terribly suspicious to me.

Good enough point, though when I looked at it my thinking was "Well, you'd have to know it's a wolf to be willing to take your vote off of your runner up to go after a complete third party". In switching his vote to Eternaly_Lost he was risking the possibility of getting lynched instead of EUROO7. The only reason I see him doing that is because he's confident that the Eternaly_Lost bandwagon is going to help him, and it's worth the risk.

If you want to look for possible packmates of EL's, I'd look at the people jumping on the tail end of that wagon, after EL confessed. Those people may have been around before then, noted the attempt to swing the vote, and then held back - they didn't want their packmate dead, of course.
When EL confessed however he forced their hand.

No, why would a villager necessarily want to join the Eternaly_Lost bandwagon? Until Eternaly_Lost confessed there was no reason to want to jump on that bandwagon. I'm willing to bet you'd find a bunch of villagers if you go after the tail end of the bandwagon, while the packmates either got in early knowing it would help them out, or else stayed out of the bandwagon completely.

The only things I feel confident saying right now is there is no way Lurken is a Schismatic wolf, and there's no way randakar is a Schismatic wolf. Everything else is still possible.

 

[the_hdk]

I'm going to vote the_hdk. He voted Lurken yesterday (mind you, I can't be bothered to check when), and Lurken is less likely a baddie than pretty much anyone else here except randakar. Also E_L voted Lurken, so we already have one baddie Lurken-voter, we might have more. Not from the same pack, I'd expect, but a dead wolf is a dead wolf.

Vote the_hdk

so to make it clear. you vote me because I voted along with another wolf????

typical ellen!


vote rysz


too much text for my eyes!

 

[Rysz]

vote rysz

too much text for my eyes!

Get out of here, heretic!
There is no such thing as too much text in WW. Thistletooth's epistels were much longer than mine!

 

[joebthegreat]

and Lurken is less likely a baddie than pretty much anyone else here except randakar.

randakar can VERY easily be a baddie... just not a Schesmatic.

Lurken can VERY easily be a baddie... none of his information has been so valuble as to ruin any wolf's day.

 

[Slinky]

Vote Slinky, for jumping ship after El admitted he was a wolf.

Why would you classify it as jumping ship? Do you mean that I got on the E_l bandwagon or that I stopped voting EUROO7?

 

[randakar]

(hmm - how on earth did I miss Rysz's post entirely? Odd..)

Well, I'll answer that in here. I am not amazed by Randakar's action. I am amazed though by the hugh bandwagon, considering that other votechanges didn't produce bandwagons. However, I don't think that says anything about Randakar's role, only that he seems to have some part of AOK reincarnated in him. Furthermore, I don't think Randakar would choose to sacrifice a packmate life like this, especially when there was no danger (AT ALL) to his packmate. I am 100% sure Randakar is not a packmate of E_L. He could still be a wolf from another pack ofcourse.

EL had zero votes when I switched to him.
You're right - I was hoping to have some success but didn't expect the enthusiasm displayed by others in joining this particular switch.

What to do against the infidels? To get back to Sedracus' first question. Not much at the moment, except of making sure there is as much discussion and information in the thread. So there.

BTW, did Sedracus really say that? Why did he not mention the Satanists? Those are out there too, if all the information we have on the first setup still holds true.

Randakar, was that a lucky guess or did you know EL was a wolf?
Why did you save Euro and Adamus?

I already explained why I went after EL in a previous post.
As for EURO and Adamus - Euro is right, with AOK dead the village lynching EURO this early is just lame. And Adamus said something in the thread that seems to indicate the village wants to keep him alive. Of course that could easily be blustering, but I am willing to give people the benefit of the doubt.

On the other hand:

That's just typical Euro banter. Really, there's nothing to be seen there. He always does that.

If somebody admits they are a wolf, you lay the smackdown. This is in the great WW Bible. Are you telling me you don't read the WW Bible?

Quoted for Truth.

The vote was way too early to have a serious chance of causing a tie. If you look at the situation surrounding his vote it's more likely he was trying to put Lurken in the running to knock someone else out... or else he was just voting someone just to vote someone, and none of these people have any relation.

Never underestimate middle of the day votes. You can steer the village discussion onto different people depending on where you place your vote, and later in the day after several shifts in discussion, nobody even remembers your vote, and how it might have been protecting someone.

Don't look at the final votecount for Day 1, you won't get very far. Look at the run up between Boris ze Spider and Adamus, walrus and Lurken, when did Orange Yoshi start to look like he might get run up? When did Orange Yoshi and Boris ze Spider fall from the public eye? When did EUROO7 get run up and how did that affect the other people that were possible lynches at the time?

That is where the analysis is to be found. Look back on this as we find more baddies, and I guarantee you you're going to find wolf packs protecting each other in subtle ways, ways that you otherwise wouldn't notice looking at a final votecount.

That is also very true.

Good enough point, though when I looked at it my thinking was "Well, you'd have to know it's a wolf to be willing to take your vote off of your runner up to go after a complete third party". In switching his vote to Eternaly_Lost he was risking the possibility of getting lynched instead of EUROO7. The only reason I see him doing that is because he's confident that the Eternaly_Lost bandwagon is going to help him, and it's worth the risk.

No, why would a villager necessarily want to join the Eternaly_Lost bandwagon? Until Eternaly_Lost confessed there was no reason to want to jump on that bandwagon. I'm willing to bet you'd find a bunch of villagers if you go after the tail end of the bandwagon, while the packmates either got in early knowing it would help them out, or else stayed out of the bandwagon completely.

He has seen a few of these swings before. Not sure if you have. AOK does them all the time. When they start getting momentum whoever is on the receiving end has a very good chance of death. That vote of his was all the push it needed to really get going, I reckon.
*shrug* I'm not saying Adamus isn't a baddie, but I have him in the 'benefit of the doubt' category for now.

The only things I feel confident saying right now is there is no way Lurken is a Schismatic wolf, and there's no way randakar is a Schismatic wolf. Everything else is still possible.

The only thing I feel confident in adding to this is that if a protector wants to give me some protection against these Schismatics .. now is the time.

 

[jacob-Lundgren]

This guy hasn't been voted on yet...makes me wonder why.

vote jacob

rock on? we vote these quiet guys right?

 

[Rysz]

(hmm - how on earth did I miss Rysz's post entirely? Odd..)
BTW, did Sedracus really say that? Why did he not mention the Satanists? Those are out there too, if all the information we have on the first setup still holds true.

Because at first I thought my page appeared on the bottom, but then it was up on the top of the page. a bit weird.
What he did literally say:
"...wat we kunnen doen tegen de Heretics en Infidels
(oftewel de Schismatic, Atheïst, Satanist en die vierde pack)"

translated: What we can do against the heretics and infidels (or actually the schismatic, atheist, satanist and the fourth pack)

(this is another reason why I hate google-chat discussions: because they are in dutch, so if I use them in here, I have to translate. That's why I even PM with my family in english for this game...)

 

[the_hdk]

Get out of here, heretic!
There is no such thing as too much text in WW. Thistletooth's epistels were much longer than mine!

I always skimmed those. he had more propaganda in them than north korea has in their annual general report.