Werewolf CIII: Kleptocratic Overlords and the Worldwide Revolution

[reis91]

vote reis91

any reason why? Inquiring minds would like to know.

Obvious attempt at raising suspicions outside his pack, should he be lynched?

Yesterday was good for voting analysis -- especially the vote swings as deadline loomed. Unfortunately, OY was the wrong candidate of the three frontrunners -- there were decent cases against trespoe and Adamus, but OY came out of nowhere.

I would like to take this opportunity to point out that we will have a very difficult time forming a JL because we have no priest -- the seer has no way of knowing if someone is a cultist. Because of this, we must all endeavor to use our wits to catch the wolves.

Therefore; I think that a good candidate today can be found in yesterday's patterns. Who saved trespoe? Who saved Adamus? Did the timing of people's votes influence the outcome?

We stand to learn a lot by knowing the roles of those involved in yesterday's vote swings. I, however, am not inclined to vote trespoe today -- the surprisingly quick accrual of votes on him yesterday does not seem indicative of evil. At this point, I think Adamus is more likely to be evil (but it is really tough to tell -- I don't know if there is a language barrier, or if maybe Adamus is secretly a 6 year old, but he is tough to get a read on).

In hindsight...

(Since marty's covering up the votes, I thought I'd take a look at the other posts).

 

[randakar]

I'm not taking you off my puppet list, I hope you understand.

Fixed that for you

Vote jacob-Lundgren

based on marty's analysis and because jonti has enough votes at the minute.

Err, jonti has what.. two votes?

 

[jonti-h]

A rather good analysis from Marty99, and a rather poor argument from Jonti-h. He was on my suspect list anyways.

Jonti-h has placed a holder vote on Ironhead5 then vote-sniped the villager that got killed: OY, Tskb18 on turn 3 and 4. As per usual he did the same on turn 5.

There's definitely something there.

I'm not taking you off my suspet list, I hope you understand.

UNVOTE MARTY99

VOTE JONTI-H

Dear got even for a wet behind the ears noob you talk cr*p.
I never vote sniped anyone. Moron.
Look, thicko, I changed my vote either when I was in danger or when someone was outed.

Yeah, and I'm being rude because this is my last game for a long while so I have nowt to lose.

 

[unmerged(31881)]

Anarchists aren't necessarily left wing. In fact, there are anarcho-capitalist kleptocrats...

Greenspan: We're never going to agree.

Born: What do you mean?

Greenspan: Fraud. You probably think there should be rules against it.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/

 

[jacob-Lundgren]

Unlikely Trespoe packmates (based on today):
Walrus
EUROO7
jacob_Lundgren
THE_SPLIT
drxav (duh)

Possible packmates:
Adamus
jonti-h
Najs

hmmm

Vote jacob-Lundgren

based on marty's analysis and because jonti has enough votes at the minute.

hmmmm

Fixed that for you



Err, jonti has what.. two votes?

hmmmm

vote walrus

for being a possibly quick reading baddie dunce.

 

[reis91]

~Why is no-one voting me? I'm starting to get sad at the lack of attention...

Also, I've been formulating strategies on the assumption I would be prosecuted every day...

 

[Adamus]

~Why is no-one voting me? I'm starting to get sad at the lack of attention...

Also, I've been formulating strategies on the assumption I would be prosecuted every day...

You get gang voted every game, you should be happy.

shall i vote you? reasons please?

 

[jonti-h]

You get gang voted every game, you should be happy.

shall i vote you? reasons please?

His team kicked us out of the Europa League.

 

[Slinky]

~Why is no-one voting me? I'm starting to get sad at the lack of attention...

Psychological warfare

 

[Kaetje]

this is my last game for a long while

I know I'm not supposed to post, but I hope AOK.11 will forgive me.

 

[jonti-h]

I know I'm not supposed to post, but I hope AOK.11 will forgive me.

I'll be back
Just got WW burnout right now, so need some time to get over it.

 

[reis91]

His team kicked us out of the Europa League.

Not my team, I'm afraid, my team lost against you last year, and was looking forward to revenge this year, but it didn't happen.

I know I'm not supposed to post, but I hope AOK.11 will forgive me.

I think AOK did not ban ghost posting. You might want to add some shiny colour to appease him . Or change your nickname to Ironhead5.

One more quote, this time from Adamus

This is rediculous, another wolf intervention right on deadline to scupper any chances of grabbing a wolf, if trespoe is a wolf i'll eat my imaginary ball sack. yet again the village vote has been spread to thin and now the wolfs are all over it like lemon curd to to the mouth of someone who likes lemon curd. If sense prevails then the Executer would come out and say JL outing vote trespoe, not just put a word in red and jump on the fact it might be a JL outing.

Curious, perhaps meaningless, perhaps insightful.

 

[Adamus]

Not my team, I'm afraid, my team lost against you last year, and was looking forward to revenge this year, but it didn't happen.



I think AOK did not ban ghost posting. You might want to add some shiny colour to appease him . Or change your nickname to Ironhead5.

One more quote, this time from Adamus



Curious, perhaps meaningless, perhaps insightful.

Just meaningless im afraid, at the time i didnt believe trespoe to be a wolf and didnt want another wolf intervention to ruin our chances, and come on don't post in big red writing if you dont have JL authority, thats just annoying.

 

[Slinky]

I think AOK did not ban ghost posting. You might want to add some shiny colour to appease him . Or change your nickname to Ironhead5.

Ghosts post in color, patients are not ghosts. I am of the opinion that patients should post in moans to differentiate their posts from the others *nods*

 

[Adamus]

Jonti should support a better team, maybe one thats playing Real Madrid in a few days, already got my plane ticket to Madrid

 

[Ironhead 5]

~Why is no-one voting me? I'm starting to get sad at the lack of attention...

Also, I've been formulating strategies on the assumption I would be prosecuted every day...

Why should we vote you?

Good analysis from marty, and I think it shows that we've got a few decent candidates today. I am more inclined to vote Syber -- Lemeard missed the first day's vote and Syber missed the second day's vote, right after he subbed -- but from Day 3 onward Syber has been consistently illogical and driven toward killing either EUROO7 or me.

I am now disinclined to believe that jonti-h is the most likely baddie. His behavior raises a lot of red flags, but I think others are more suspicious at this point. That said, it is important that we not splinter our vote and allow the baddies to run up the seer or GA (as they have done on past days). I will try to jump on line and check the vote before deadline, but for now my vote stays with Syber -- for being called out on his suspicious behavior, and refusing to address it.

 

[marty99]

I'm not taking you off my suspet list, I hope you understand.

Of course you shouldn't do that based on my post alone, as a wolf I'm pretty good at analysing without actually finding any wolves. But I appreciate your unvoting of me.

Vote jacob-Lundgren

based on marty's analysis and because jonti has enough votes at the minute.

On one of the days jacob made rather a dodgy vote but his bandwagoning of Trespoe at a later day sort of overrules that, I wouldn't want to lynch jacob, although it's probable that someone did try to sell out Trespoe at some stage.

Oh, and do not exclude the possibility of a 3 pack setup.

Ive been waiting for an opportunity to talk about this. Purely based on what I believe AOK would do, I find it more likely there are only two packs, still 3 is a definite possibility. Since reds were hunted night 2 and 4, they obviously don't hunt then. Assuming symmetrical hunting, then it's either 2 packs: Blacks hunt even, reds odd; or 3 packs in which the reds hunt every third night.


For all my walls of text, to me there doesn't seem to be a stand-out candidate yet, so please don't follow me blindly, think for yourself, 'coz I'm still pretty clueless - I just have nothing to better to do atm .

 

[reis91]

and allow the baddies to run up the seer or GA (as they have done on past days).

How do you know it was intentional on their part?

Now, marty, something fun I found in your post...

as a wolf I'm pretty good at analysing without actually finding any wolves.

For all my walls of text, to me there doesn't seem to be a stand-out candidate yet

:rofl:

Also, this

although it's probable that someone did try to sell out Trespoe at some stage.

This is not only probable, it is a certainty. That is also why I deserve to be erased off your highly suspicious anarchist wolves list

And yes, from what I saw from AOK's posting, about pack balance, I lean towards 2 packs. But I'm keeping that possibility open.

 

[marty99]

Good analysis from marty, and I think it shows that we've got a few decent candidates today. I am more inclined to vote Syber -- Lemeard missed the first day's vote and Syber missed the second day's vote, right after he subbed -- but from Day 3 onward Syber has been consistently illogical and driven toward killing either EUROO7 or me.

I agree with lynching Syber, but there is always the possibility it is noobish paranoia - I don't want an all-out bandwagon on him.

I am now disinclined to believe that jonti-h is the most likely baddie. His behavior raises a lot of red flags, but I think others are more suspicious at this point. That said, it is important that we not splinter our vote and allow the baddies to run up the seer or GA (as they have done on past days). I will try to jump on line and check the vote before deadline, but for now my vote stays with Syber -- for being called out on his suspicious behavior, and refusing to address it.

I don't think anyone is by far the most likely baddie, things are still pretty murky, but for me jonti is up there somewhere. I don't think there's any risk of the baddies going all out to lynch an important goodie, they would be mad to try that with the JL seemingly more or less intact (although silenced until/if Kaetje recovers) and days to go until parity. No, I think if they do anything at all they will try to redirect the lynch away from their own towards one of the other suspects. You do raise an issue though: the fact there is no sorcerer in this game means that the individual packs are stronger, with 2 packs you would expect around 11 baddies, with 3 there would be more than 15, either way each pack could easily have 5 starting members. The good thing is that so far there have been no no-kills so we don't have to worry about potential turns right now, but still the wolves will have a lot of influence on the voting. No one should bring up a new candidate unless they provide a decent argument for their guilt, at this point throwaways shouldn't be tolerated.

This is not only probable, it is a certainty.

I would agree with that.

That is also why I deserve to be erased off your highly suspicious anarchist wolves list

Nice try, sunshine.
Whats happened to your usual neurotic/borderline psychotic behaviour? I notice last Lite game you seemed unusually sane, and you were a wolf then (seriously, I'm not being ironic here).

 

[jonti-h]

Jonti should support a better team, maybe one thats playing Real Madrid in a few days, already got my plane ticket to Madrid

I do support a decent team!!