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We agree about Slinky only being a cultist. And I mentioned the "12 minute gap" before. That is a great place to look. However, look at the other voters.... And also don't forget some players were thinking that the deadline was earlier and Kaetje would have been lynched at that time....
Sedracus and Reis took their votes off Kaetje, but both were villagers.
The Reis and I5 voters kept their votes on their candidates, none of them moved.
Euro moved from Kaetje to Torn, but if he was in Kaetje's pack, why didn't he move to Reis or I5 earlier?
Lurken's vote pushed Torn to 5 votes, above everyone else. It isn't much, and am willing to listen to others. You could make a case for AOK, since he had a wasted vote on Punkbob, didn't want to seem wolfish by pushing Reis into the lynchzone, but then led the bandwagon after Torn. But hopefully, given his involvement in this game, he has been scanned. The seer has had several nights so hopefully the JL knows who is not a wolf by now. Lurken is very quiet. His vote also put a 2 vote gap to Randakar and 3 votes to Paendrag. He actually fits better with the pack that has been decimated than the Frenchies.
I think you are going about the vote analysis wrong, focusing on the votes that lynched Slinky. They mean absolutely nothing. If the_hdk isn't a Frenchie then I would think most Frenchies would have voted Slinky. If the_hdk is a French wolf then they would have spread their votes between them.
What we need to look at is who were voted by Kaetje and Slinky? Because the laggy forum I've only been able to look at day 1 and that was day before yesterday but there was a lot of info from Kaetjes actions. Didn't know Slinky was bad back then so didn't really look what he did and maybe Kaetje was as active day 2-3?
Same thing for spotting Montagues. Who were voted by Paendrag and randakar? Did they ever put anyone in danger? Were they ever in danger themselves? I think randy was in the running day 1 but don't remember Paendrag getting any votes at all.
I've also been thinking about randy's message before he got lynched day3/night4. He say he had decided his pack's hunt for that night and he took full credit/blame - something like that. Night 4 was a no-kill so potentially that was someone getting turned.
If that wasn't just a bluff then at first I thought he was hunting his wife but obviously that wasn't the case. Who else would he say something like that to? Possibly one of the people that gets the maddest when things don't go their way (AOK, I5 or jonti - of them only AOK is alive) or someone that complained a lot during randy's game (long list). Something that AOK said about the Montagues after last update struck me as a bit odd so I think he might actually be a turned Montague. I could read way too much into that comment by randakar though. Anyway it doesn't really matter now since we are primarily looking for Frenchies.
What we need to look at is who were voted by Kaetje and Slinky? Because the laggy forum I've only been able to look at day 1 and that was day before yesterday but there was a lot of info from Kaetjes actions. Didn't know Slinky was bad back then so didn't really look what he did and maybe Kaetje was as active day 2-3?
Same thing for spotting Montagues. Who were voted by Paendrag and randakar? Did they ever put anyone in danger? Were they ever in danger themselves? I think randy was in the running day 1 but don't remember Paendrag getting any votes at all.
I've also been thinking about randy's message before he got lynched day3/night4. He say he had decided his pack's hunt for that night and he took full credit/blame - something like that. Night 4 was a no-kill so potentially that was someone getting turned.
If that wasn't just a bluff then at first I thought he was hunting his wife but obviously that wasn't the case. Who else would he say something like that to? Possibly one of the people that gets the maddest when things don't go their way (AOK, I5 or jonti - of them only AOK is alive) or someone that complained a lot during randy's game (long list). Something that AOK said about the Montagues after last update struck me as a bit odd so I think he might actually be a turned Montague. I could read way too much into that comment by randakar though. Anyway it doesn't really matter now since we are primarily looking for Frenchies.
Next deadline will be at 10PM GMT on Monday.
They'll either have fixed the forums on Monday morning, or enough players will have trickled in to not make it stupid to continue. May be delayed further if neither of these things are the case.
They'll either have fixed the forums on Monday morning, or enough players will have trickled in to not make it stupid to continue. May be delayed further if neither of these things are the case.
Thing is, we can't prove who did or did not know when the deadline was, the only person I can explicitly remember saying they didn't realise it had been changed was Tornadoli 1 (although I may be wrong) and he is now dead, so it's hard to know how much importance we can place on those votes, although they should still be counted anyway as it was still relatively close to the deadline.
It's EUROO7, he doesn't play like a standard wolf so he wouldn't jump off at the usual stage, OTOH he doesn't act completely different either, so it may have been to save Kaetje. He is one of the more loyal wolves actually and I've seen him save packmates before, as player and GM. So he's potentially a good suspect. Although with the sheer weight of votes on him earlier in the game for what I believe to be a pointless reason I'm reluctant to put him up again.
I've checked, an you are correct. But as you say he's only really a suspect for the Montague Martin pack, and we should be focusing more on the Frenchmen. In fact there is a distinct possibility of a third pack also, although we have no real info to identify them. So I think by far our highest priority should be the Frenchman pack.
Forum seems to be working alright now, but as a lot of players may have given up yesterday and may not check back for a while, deadline will stay as monday for now - if most of the players show up this afternoon I'll switch it back to this evening but set it at 00:00GMT for the deadline.
Votecount - some time until deadline
the_hdk (7) - Sedracus v2.0, johho888, White Daimon, marty99, Jopi, THE_SPLIT, enkhuush
Tornadoli v2.0 (3) - Adamus, k-59, reis91 v2.0
reis91 v2.0 (2) - Tornadoli v2.0, AOK.11
Lurken - trespoe
Not Voted: the_hdk*, Lurken, Eternaly_Lost, Trinitrotoluen, EUROO7
Of the people who haven't voted, both TNT and hdk requested subs, I can let Euro know via MSN we're playing, and then that only leaves E_L and Lurken. I reckon we can have a deadline tonight.
the_hdk (7) - Sedracus v2.0, johho888, White Daimon, marty99, Jopi, THE_SPLIT, enkhuush
Tornadoli v2.0 (3) - Adamus, k-59, reis91 v2.0
reis91 v2.0 (2) - Tornadoli v2.0, AOK.11
Lurken - trespoe
Not Voted: the_hdk*, Lurken, Eternaly_Lost, Trinitrotoluen, EUROO7
Of the people who haven't voted, both TNT and hdk requested subs, I can let Euro know via MSN we're playing, and then that only leaves E_L and Lurken. I reckon we can have a deadline tonight.
I could not disagree with you more about Slinky.
First, the priest is dead. The Seer is still alive. The odds of a priest apprentice taking over a very low. Thus, culties are unscannable. Having an unscannable baddie, especially one with Slinky's skill, is invaluable. In addition, the french pack already lost a wolf and will probably lose another to a Seer scan with the Seer still active. Having a veteran, unscannable cutly of Slinky's caliber under the current circumstances is just as valuable as a wolf in my view.
I thus disagree that they would simply throw him overboard. The Slinky vote means something, at least in my opinion.
Hi!
I've been gone for a LAN-party over the weekend, hence my absence. I had hoped on getting access to the web, but it was fruitless.
I must though say that the last day were very good for us. Taking out a cultist (who seemed to have met a grousesome end at the end of the Police Squad =P ) and wolf on wolf action.
Due to severe sleepdeprivation, 5 hours on three days...woohoo! Means that my reasoning skills will be diminished, but I will trudge through what happened and find why hdk leads so much in the front.
Quickly edited in: Oh right! He was ran up together with Slinky.
And since Slinky was baddie, I guess I'll trust the JLs spokeperson on this too. Though, again, remember that Torn is a tiemaker and thus should be suspect, because ties, in general tends to be more potentially destructive for the village, than just one "regular" lynching.
Vote HDK
I've been gone for a LAN-party over the weekend, hence my absence. I had hoped on getting access to the web, but it was fruitless.
I must though say that the last day were very good for us. Taking out a cultist (who seemed to have met a grousesome end at the end of the Police Squad =P ) and wolf on wolf action.
Due to severe sleepdeprivation, 5 hours on three days...woohoo! Means that my reasoning skills will be diminished, but I will trudge through what happened and find why hdk leads so much in the front.
Quickly edited in: Oh right! He was ran up together with Slinky.
And since Slinky was baddie, I guess I'll trust the JLs spokeperson on this too. Though, again, remember that Torn is a tiemaker and thus should be suspect, because ties, in general tends to be more potentially destructive for the village, than just one "regular" lynching.
Vote HDK
No. Torn is a suspect because his tie didn't catch any baddie (yes, you can make a case for cursed, but no-one has any means of finding out about them, bar hunting them).
...
Yea, kinda what I meant. Tie-ing two confirmed baddies is good. But tieing two unknowns are potentially worse for the village, than the "normal" lynch.
You're missing the point. He wasn't just sold down then river, he was recommended by the JL. If he wasn't lynched today he would most likely have been lynched tomorrow, regardless of whether or not the_hdk is a baddie. The votes may not be completely worthless, but we have to take into account individual players here. There are very few I know that would actively try to save Slinky. I think you're placing too much emphasis on that lynching and not enough on their previous voting history.
He was a recommended runup target. Who obviously was not scanned, otherwise they would have outed him. And could not be scanned with the priest dead. I would not have given him up so easily. If you think a situation like that leads to inevitable death, simply look at what I did last game and you can see it is not, especially with a JL spokesman going AWOL.
Perhaps the wolves are cowards who simply caved and gave him up. Unless HDK is a wolf too I would have railroaded HDK if in their position, especially with the vote so close. Its not like HDK wasn't recommended too.
I guess that means we need to know what HDK is. So the lynch on him makes sense.