On the presumption DG will flip blue, I decided to take a step back and look for red specific candidates. Looking through people's posts, I found beartjah to be an interesting person to look at. Here's all his posts in the game:
Not much to say on Day 1. This is most people's typical day 1, a random vote than following the outing.
Day 2 vote on a blue. Not much to say as this was well before any known reds came under danger.
Doesn't know about Alynkio, which could be honestly missing that part in Audren's PMs or a wolf playing dumb. Goes on about how we should look at other packs, but then in the next sentence says screw that and looks at blues anyway and goes after Audren as a potential blue. Seems like a red who knows it looks suspicious if he doesn't at least make it seem like he's trying to go after other packs.
Follows the outing.
Forgets that Ike was under pressure and has a good reason to activate his alderman. Also brings up EL but provides some defense by saying he doesn't think a baddie would take that risk...
Only to jump on EL with his next vote. This day was the most he spent looking for reds and it doesn't really impress me.
Remember how he just voted for a guy for potentially saving a packmate, but now he says that wolves are usually too scared to try to save their mates? This feels like inconsistent logic.
And here he is today, once again he's going after blues. He also defends this by saying the red wolves are well hidden, but instead of trying to generate any sort of discussion to maybe force a red into a mistake, he just seems content to hunt for blues.
Vote Beartjah
VOTE ETERNALY_LOST
His name already says it: he's lost to corruption already
Also: why would a wolf waste your first warg shot on the night 0 hunt? It''s not like we were going to get much useful info from that anyway, if I were a wolf it seem much more logical to wait for someone where hiding the role could actually do something?
UNVOTE ETERNALY_LOST
VOTE SLEEPYHEAD
Not much to say on Day 1. This is most people's typical day 1, a random vote than following the outing.
VOTE YAKMAN
three way tie.
And it's not like I'm going to find anything remotely useful by trying to stare at yesterdays voting with the outting.
Day 2 vote on a blue. Not much to say as this was well before any known reds came under danger.
So then one of the Yak voters is an alderman if I'm not missing another trait that let's your vote count twice?
Shouldn't be told who the alderman is? At least, that's how it worked the last time I saw the trait?
I'm still a bit confused by how Alynkio is/was linked to the van helsings/seer? What did I overlook/miss here?
Anyway, it looks like the wolves are off on a rough start(or well, only the blue pack is starting badly, assuming there are two packs)
With two blue baddies dead I'm not sure how many blues there will still be left, I would guess 1-2 more blues. Since most big games seem to have two packs we migth want to focus on finding the other pack. That said, I don't have any clue for non-blue baddies, so I guess I'll be stuck going for the blues anyway...
The wagon opposing the yakman lynch is now suspicious almost by default.
I think Audren could be the worst offender here. Chef put up the reasoning/arguments for lynching Alxeu, but from what I can see it appears to ahve been Audren that took that and started the bandwagon that nearly saved Yakman.
VOTE AUDREN
Doesn't know about Alynkio, which could be honestly missing that part in Audren's PMs or a wolf playing dumb. Goes on about how we should look at other packs, but then in the next sentence says screw that and looks at blues anyway and goes after Audren as a potential blue. Seems like a red who knows it looks suspicious if he doesn't at least make it seem like he's trying to go after other packs.
UNVOTE AUDREN
VOTE ALXEU
Follows the outing.
That's a lot of outtings this game. Kinda intrigued that we now have two separate people that made an outting. @DeathNoteForCutie mind if I ask why you did the outting youself rather than pass it on to Avernite(and do the outting anyway if he didn't do it himself)? I would expect having only one person making outtings would make it easier to protect him that having two of you?
Day 2 is indeed rather interesting as Audren notes, with two wolves from different packs in the running.
Still not convinced on Audren, but he's been run up already so let's leave that for what it is to see if we get more info from day 3 when more people are dead/have their roles revealed.
It should be noted that of the yakman voters, only Promos the zombie and e_l voted for yakman after Alxeu got even a single vote, so anyone before that can't have been placing their vote in reacting to pressure on Alxeu. I'm not sure how much, if anything, we can derive about the voting pattern of the zombie yet, so that leaves only e_l. He stated his vote was to break the tie, which appears fairly bad in hindsight though I'm not sure a baddie would take that kind of risk to save a packmate...
Ike activated his alderman that day, which could've been done only in response to the pressure on Alxeu.
Day 3 votes are hard to read right now since we don't know the roles of any of the candidates. Dunno what to make of it right now...
VOTE IKE
I feel like Ike needs to explain his alderman activation, I don't think he offered an explanation for that anywhere(unless I missed it)?
Forgets that Ike was under pressure and has a good reason to activate his alderman. Also brings up EL but provides some defense by saying he doesn't think a baddie would take that risk...
Guess that's as sensible an explanation for the alderman as I'm going to get. It makes some sense but I'm don't think he's cleared from that line of thought.
With that out of the way I'll switch my vote to the only human player that voted in opposition to the switch from one wolf to awolf from the opposite pack, on the reasoning that he might've been trying to save a packmate there.
UNVOTE IKE
VOTE ETERNALY_LOST
*gets run up for not explaining his votes*
*survives only because of an outting*
*places another unexplained vote*
Wat
Only to jump on EL with his next vote. This day was the most he spent looking for reds and it doesn't really impress me.
Don't have a lot fo time for this today and can't really find a really strong case to go for in what time I do have.
From day 2 we have only promos the zombie that voted for yak once alxeu had taken off.
We do of course still have the possibility of a blue wolf hiding in the alxeu voters of that day
Day 3 is still pretty much impossible to say much about. Other than Audren's theory about the wolves being content with the lynch, but I don't really buy that since in my experience it's equally possible for the wolves to be too scared to do much to save their packmate out of fear of exposing themselves.
Yesterday we had a lot of chaos just before the deadline in trying to figure who we should tie. Chef redirected (part of) the votes into E-L, but I can't really blame since E-L did look shifty there.
Yvanoff's saving of DG, combined with them both already being up in the running before people switched to E-L makes the two of them look (even more) shifty. Guess I'll go for that and hope the rest of the village has more time today to look into things more properly.
VOTE YVANOFF
As for the rest of today's candidates:
Cyms: really bad at explaining what his thoughts are, but this case of E-L somehow knowing something about Cyms but not doing an outting appears unconvincng at best.
It only gives the type of scan used. Every scanner also has a single-use scan variant/trait that can be picked by anyone from any alignment. Even if he detected a sorc scan that doesn't mean that the sorc scan was made by the sorc(or even by a baddie)
Chef: This mostly appears like a case of lynching someone because he made a really bad case, which is something that I'm not entirely sure it a good way to find baddies, especially for someone that is new to this version of werewolf.
Jeray: seems to be targetted without a case, though I can't recall him doing much so it wouldn't be too bad to have some pressure on him I guess
DG: claims to have killed the seer, seems to be claiming incompetence. Got saved by Yvanoff after being run up alongside him. Guess going for Yvanoff first and then back to him once we know what Yvanoff was doing with that save might be the best course sicne DG doesn't appear to be getting much attention today.
Remember how he just voted for a guy for potentially saving a packmate, but now he says that wolves are usually too scared to try to save their mates? This feels like inconsistent logic.
The most obvious is of course DG, for getting saved by Yvanoff on day 4. His day 5 voted could then easily be cast as a packmate as people were probably going to remake the tie anyway. Throwaway on day 2 when yakman the blue got lynched. Him shooting the seer day 1(or was it day 2?) doesn't really help him either.
I'm honestly not sure if he's got anything going for him really...
Voting DNFC for getting the vote wrong doesn't seem like a strong case to me. Villagers get things wrong all the time without being baddies.
Ike is a possible baddie, but I'm not convinced on him being worse than DG. He may have voted in Yvanoff's favour yesterday and pushed for a tie from which Yvanoff could snipe to safety, but if Ike is blue, he voted his packmate Yakman on day 2 when the votecount was (5-ike, 4-yak, 3-capi). It could've been hitting a packmate out of self preservation but to me it would seem more effective to vote capi instead and hope that either he or yak fall behind in the votes than it is to hit a packmate. I'd say that DG would be more likely for a blue wolf right now.
A red wolf is of course still possible, but I'm not really noting anything of particular interest/damning for the reds: his day 2 vote may have been helping Alxeu, that vote was cast before Alxeu was seriously threatened and his alderman could've also been activated over himself being threatened earlier that day.
The red wolves in general seem to be well hidden right now. The only day of which we know a red wolf was in the running(without immediately being outted) is on day 2, and everyone that oppose the push on Alxeu is dead. We'll probably have to look for people that appear to be trying to not attract attention but that's about half the people that are still alive at this point so that's not very helpful.
Anyway, DG appears to be the most likely wolf I think, so I'll
VOTE DUTCHGUY
And here he is today, once again he's going after blues. He also defends this by saying the red wolves are well hidden, but instead of trying to generate any sort of discussion to maybe force a red into a mistake, he just seems content to hunt for blues.
Vote Beartjah