Werewolf CCXXXI: Crusade!

[Hax]

To Sleepyhead.

 

[Avernite]

How many zombie hunters are there?

About as many as alchemists, one presumes.

 

[alxeu]

Good job.

Ave, alxeu, qui lupam necavit!

That no-hunt is spooky, though. A cursed hit could be bad for us, few as we are.

Agreed, good job not killing me. Can't even go out for dinner with family without getting run up these days...

Thank you, thank you.

Admittedly I wasn't expecting Dedonus to break the tie, and had just been prepared to snipe to him had anyone else sniped, but I'm glad it turned out well.

 

[Sleepyhead]

To Sleepyhead.

Losing too much liquid could mean getting hypohydration

 

[Avernite]

Hax tied the tie when Dedonus was ahead. Possible ok, possible support of Dedonus.
Xarkan literally broke the tie away from Dedonus.

Vote Xarkan

 

[johho888]

Official vote count, 23h 30min to deadline

Xarkan - 1 - Avernite

not voted - 14 - reis91, brovahkiin, Arkasas, Capibara, alxeu, alynkio, aedan777, Hax, beartjah, OrangeYoshi, Xarkan, Caillean, Sleepyhead, esemesas

 

[Avernite]

Also early warning: I might not be around as much as I was yesterday/today for today/tomorrow. So no lynching me just because I suddenly went a lot quieter! The Lord would not approve.

 

[Yakman]

GHOST POST

GOOD GAME. HAVE FUN!

GHOST POST

 

[Yvanoff]

Gg wp incompetent village

Sorry @johho888 - wanted to be more active starting today and ended up much more busy today than was expected so I couldn't

 

[reis91]

So, if I'm not mistaken we want to make Sleepyhead hang now, right?

 

[OrangeYoshi]

So, if I'm not mistaken we want to make Sleepyhead hang now, right?

Remind me of the full case against him?

 

[reis91]

Remind me of the full case against him?

Well, he really didn't want to snipe Dedonus to save himself and went to the trouble of "sending a PM" to him to get him to vote a third party (FatWombat).

Also, he said "those PMs" when only one PM was divulged, as Hax pointed out, implying that there was a convo going on. I'll try to dig out the posts when I have a bit more time.

 

[OrangeYoshi]

Well, he really didn't want to snipe Dedonus to save himself and went to the trouble of "sending a PM" to him to get him to vote a third party (FatWombat).

Also, he said "those PMs" when only one PM was divulged, as Hax pointed out. I'll try to dig out the posts when I have a bit more time.

Ah yes, that case. It's a good case. You vote him. But running up only one is boring and lame. Xarkan already has a vote. You vote him, I'll vote Xarkan, let's see where this goes. They both got involved with Dedonus in suspicious ways.

Vote Xarkan

 

[esemesas]

Analysis, part one of whatever

It seems the iconoclastic heathen is being rooted out by the Pope and his servants, and I commend them and ask them to step forth so we may aid and support them in slaying these foul beasts!

So, what are we voting on?

Vote Dedonus, the obvious woman

First vote of the game and it already hits Dedonus. Never switched off, so either was very confident in Dedonus saving himself or probably Avernite is not a yellow

vote aver...
vote @Dedonus

Likelihood of sorc not being in touch with the yellows, very high

vote reis91

Day 1 vote, not really worht much, is it?

TheFatWombat:3
Alxeu
esemesas
Sleepyhead (esemesas > x)

brovahkiin: 2
beartjah
orangeyoshi

Dedonus: 2
Avernite
Yakman

Sleepyhead: 2
k-59
randakar

OrangeYoshi: 1
Capibara

Claude LC: 1
brovahkiin

reis91: 1
Dedonus

Alynkio: 1
reis91

k-59: 1
Arkasas

Not Voted: aedan777, alynkio, Hax, Claude LC, Cailean, Dr.ramius, Yvanoff, Xarkan, TheFatWombat

Situation before this Yakman post:

let's run up @Dedonus and @TheFatWombat . see what happens.

Following @Yakman 's advices look like a sound strategy to survive in Werewolf

Vote Dedonus

Eh. Eeeh. Eeeeeeeeeeh.

Fine

Unvote brovakiin - Vote Dedonus

Yvanoff and OY unlikely yellows

UNVOTE ORANGE YOSHI

VOTE THEFATWOMBAT

Capibara might just be voting reactionary here, since Dedonus was ahead by one vote

VOTE Sleepyhead

Unvote claude
Vote sleepyhead
Sloth is a sin and faking illness for attention is hardly knightly

Hax votes sleepyhead and brovahkiin soon follows, making it a three-way. Both look suspicious to me, Hax is smart enough not to try and blindly save his packmate, but instead try to steer the vote subtly.

TheFatWombat:4
Alxeu
esemesas
Sleepyhead
Capibara

Dedonus: 4
Avernite
Yakman
Yvanoff
OY

Sleepyhead: 4
k-59
randakar
Hax
brovahkiin

brovahkiin: 1
beartjah

Claude LC: 1
brovahkiin

reis91: 1
Dedonus

Alynkio: 1
reis91

k-59: 1
Arkasas

Not Voted: aedan777, alynkio, Claude LC, Cailean, Dr.ramius, Xarkan, TheFatWombat

Situation after the Sleepyhead votes

Well I 'have' to vote. So I'll leave the tie alone.

Vote alynkio

Xarkan does a throwaway, mildly suspicious, trying to not make a meaninful vote so he doesn't get the spotlight

Let´s not.

Vote Sleepyhead

TFW votes in self preservation

OK, let's run up @TheFatWombat and @Sleepyhead if you think that's better.

Vote TheFatWombat

Caillean the suggest removing Dedonus from the threeway. Sus-pi-cious!

Vote Dedonus

Tie back.

Good boy, aedan, have a cookie

Lions, I suppose, are courageous apex-predators. How might we describe one who is Wombat-hearted?



Partly hoping these two secretly have the 'lovers' trait. @Dedonus if Claude dies before you, plz upload a video of yourself singing the Liebestod. This is a demand, actually.




See! The vile infidels already want me dead. There can be no truce with the enemies of Christ!

Pah. So fixated on such a narrow array of candidates! I'd be surprised if any of Sleepy, Wombat, and Dedonus turn out to be Saracen infiltrators. Lets add some spice. Deadline is still several hours away.



Let's run up Yakman and see what happens!


VOTE YAKMAN

Unvote Reis91
Vote Yakman

alynkio suggests running up Yakman and Dedonus happily follows. Baddie point for alynkio

Unvote Wombat
Vote alynkio

Gives you guys something to overanalyse

Nothign happens for nearly an hour, so I get bored and turn the situation into this:

Official vote count, 34min to deadline

Sleepyhead - 5 - k-59, randakar, Hax, brovahkiin, TheFatWombat
Dedonus - 5 - Avernite, Yakman, Yvanoff, Orange Yoshi, aedan777
TheFatWombat - 4 - alxeu, Sleepyhead, Capibara, Cailean
alynkio - 3 - reis91, Xarkan, esemesas
Yakman - 2 - alynkio, Dedonus
brovahkiin - 1 - beartjah
k-59 - 1 - Arkasas

not voted - 2 - Claude LC, Dr.ramius

We are not letting him off the hook that easily.

Unvote alynkio
Vote TFW

Which prompts Xarkan to restore the 3-way:

Official vote count, 8min to deadline

Sleepyhead - 5 - k-59, randakar, Hax, brovahkiin, TheFatWombat
Dedonus - 5 - Avernite, Yakman, Yvanoff, Orange Yoshi, aedan777
TheFatWombat - 5 - alxeu, Sleepyhead, Capibara, Cailean, Xarkan
alynkio - 2 - reis91, esemesas
Yakman - 2 - alynkio, Dedonus
brovahkiin - 1 - beartjah
k-59 - 1 - Arkasas

not voted - 2 - Claude LC, Dr.ramius

In the name of self preservation.

Unvote Yakman
Vote TheFatWombat

And of course the famous "PM incident" happens behind the scenes and Dedonus saves himself. So ends Day 1.

Suspects from Day 1: Xarkan, alynkio, Cailean, Hax, brovahkiin, Capibara
Probably not yellow unless turned: Yvanoff, OY, aedan

 

[esemesas]

Analysis, part 2 of whatever

VOTE Xarkan

For putting pressure back onto Wombat the villager. Actually suspicious how easily pressure went back onto Wombat whenever others got votes, might have been a wolf in the runup?

Called it!

Also interesting how everyone seemed to be ok with the tie until Dedonus broke it at the last minute. Almost as if some people knew this would happen. Also, why did Sleepyhead not vote for self preservation?

Given Sleepy's non-attempt to save himself, it might have even been two and he (Sleepy) was sure Dedonus would save him. But this may be reading too much into it.

But throwaway votes are always a decent target, so:

Vote Arkasas

I was ready to snipe to Dedonus, but seeing that he was online I contacted him informing that if he wanted to live, he better change his vote to TFW. I preferred someone voting for me dying.

Honestly, I think people read too much into the whole Sleepy-Dedonus PM shebang. I'm not discounting Sleepy being a yellow, but I also think it's an overblown case. Anyway, the arguments for it have been made numerous times and I am not going to dwell on it here.

Vote Capibara

The case on Capibara is pretty weak, but of the three people in contention (if I did my math correctly - unvoted Ramius), he's the only one who has not been run up yet. I am willing to hear other arguments for a better candidate, though.

Third vote on Capi, making him the leader, although this was with time to spare. Still, knock him down a few rungs onthe suspect ladder

I never really liked the case on Capibara. Punishing a lazy vote is much better.

Unvote Capibara
Vote Caillean

Happily switched to Caillean once she got some pressure, also an unlikely suspect.

So from Day 2 we can gleam that Capi and Caillean are unlikely yellows

 

[esemesas]

I actually agree with K-59 here, this sounds very suspicious.

Vote Dedonus

reis latches onto the k-59 case that Dedonus sort of shook responsibility of his Day 1 votes. Have a cookie

That villager comment from Dedonus is weird. And I kinda wanna vote him for it. But reis seems a little fishy and I'm not sure I wanna vote alongside him. I feel like Caillean makes some good points as well.

Let's get 3 up there again.

Vote Yvanoff

Weird reason not to vote for someone, but OY has goodie points from before, so I'll give it a pass.

I have reviewed the evidence and agree reis is a better throwawat candidate, even if I would say his day 1 vote is not entirely throwaway.

Still, Dedonus came across as more lazy than throwaway (claiming he was 'ordered' to do something).
But he already has votes, so:

UNvote OrangeYoshi, Vote reis91

And again, reluctance to vote for Dedonus...

I want to look at the calliean wagon. Yes the vote was lazy but the sudden massive swap is just off to me
specifically I feel dedonus is the most suspicious of all of them
vote dedonus

Good boy, have a cookie

I am really surprised that nobody is looking at esemesas.



This post happened 4 minutes prior to deadline. I can't tell from this post whether he realized that Yakman still had 3 votes on him or not. That either means he was trying to snipe to a 3-way tie or he thought he was going for a two-way tie between Caillean and Xarkan and was ignorant that another player had 3 votes still on him. This, then, lead to Xarkan panicking and expanding the tie to four people. Without the last minute switch to Yakman, there would have been a high body count last night. Sure, we were lucky that we found the sorcerer, but this could have ended way worse. Worse case scenario would be 7 players dead (4 from lynch, 1 from hunt, 1 from zombie hunter shot, and 1 from hunter counter-zombie hunter shot). I don't know about you, but that would have been a pretty steep cost for killing the sorcerer.

Yesterday, Xarkan was run up because he reestablished the 3-way tie late in the day (he did it with about 20 minutes left, if I'm doing the math right) on Day 1. esemesas did something similar (reestablish a 3-way tie, although the 3-way tie had one different candidate than earlier in the day) with even less time on the clock (4 minutes). Furthermore, this is the second time he switched his vote to alter whether there was a tie or not (and that time he said he won't be around at deadline, but according to his own words, he was awaken until 15 minutes til). We need to at least take a good look at him.

Vote Esemesas

Dedonus starts the case on me

This is actually interesting because Caillean mentions Esemesas as one of the people who didn't have votes at deadline, and then seemingly forgets about him:



I still do feel that mega-ties should be avoided, and especially this early, too. Xarkan was trying to save himself yesterday, Esemesas has no excuse.

Vote Esemesas

alxeu follows up, but we know he is 99% not a yellow due to what happened later

This assumes not only that one of Capibara and Xarkan and Brovahkiin was a wolf and the push against Caillean was joined (by at least some of us) to save them. It seems just as likely if not more that Xarkan and Capi and Brovah were wolf-approved candidates and the late push (on someone casting a fairly blatant throw-away vote late in the day) represent a desire to take back control of the village from the wolves misleading us with specious cases. People's behavior can be twisted into all kinds of narratives -- time (and scans and voting data) will eventually show which one is correct. Until vote analysis becomes a useful tool (i.e. we've found wolves or we're a bunch of days in), I try to spread attention around, and concentrate it on... well... the sort of people who make throw-away votes near deadline. It suggests that someone might not be taking the game seriously (I don't care who dies, as long as it's not me or my packmates), or is obviously trying to fly under the radar. From Caillean's post today, it seems like she may have just been busy and aware she needed to throw down a vote (Of course this can be true of goodies as well as baddies), but this is enough to not make me want to run her up again (even if I question the wisdom of trying to run Aedan up. Aedan will pop in when he has something interesting to say. Of the 2 she mentioned, I'm more interested in Alxeu.)



Agreed. The difference between a TIE made for information and a TIE made for indifferent slaughter. One thing to keep things close 10 minutes before deadline, another to do it 3 minutes before. Avernite said something to this effect earlier. Also, I feel his switch on and then off of Caillean could be an interesting data point too. Aware I'll be the 3rd Esemesas voter in a row, but I've been suspicious of him for a while and feel like this is the best place for my vote. Also... time for work .


VOTE ESEMESAS

alynkio puts me ahead

Well I guess we're at the point where I should stop flailing around and start making a choice among the contenders.

Dedonus' comment was dodgy about supposedly being ordered to do things by the external factor 'village'
Esemesas dropping off Caillean's list of targets is a bit wonky, and the tie work was a possibly bad idea, possibly good (depends on what the other tied were).
Yvanoff and Arkasas seem to be mostly guilty of poor defence, rather than an initial good reason for death.

Picking one I'll go for:
UNvote reis91, Vote Dedonus

And Avernite returns Dedonus to the frontrunners. Given his Day 1 vote on him that stuck, I would say Avernite is likely not a yellow.

Vote yvanoff

Do we really want a three-nearly-four-way tie today?

No, we do not, but Avernite makes a good point abotu Xarkan here:

We don't, but why pick out Yvanoff? Random chance, or do you care to repeat your reasoning?

Vote Dedonus

Needs more TIE... Plus, voting ese would be a revenge vote, and vengeance is un-Christian.

VOTE DEDONUS

I don't have much time for WW this weekend, but looking at previous days I think his dead can provides with some good information.

Strike these two off the yellow list

Esemesas has started to fall behind in the votes, and I think he's potentially the most suspicious of the players currently in contention, having made a three way tie close to deadline with the intention of having it occur. Ties can be helpful to the villager, but with little information to go on, as was the case yesterday, they are too dangerous and risky.

Vote Esemesas

Boo!

Vote esemesas

Unvote Aedan
Vote esemesas

Tie.

Oeps...

Unvote esemesas
Vote Yvanoff

Caillean makes a great big ol' TIE:

Official vote count, 37min to deadline

Dedonus - 5 - reis91, brovahkiin, Avernite, Arkasas, Capibara
esemesas - 5 - Dedonus, alxeu, alynkio, aedan777, Claude LC
Yvanoff - 5 - beartjah, OrangeYoshi, Hax, Xarkan, Caillean
Arkasas - 2 - esemesas, Sleepyhead

not voted - 1 - Yvanoff

missed 2 votes - 1 - Claude LC

I personally oppose a tie, but I think esemesas is the best candidate, so I will not change my vote.

Oh yes, you will

Seems like I'm getting voted because of misunderstandings. Besides the misunderstanding with my response to Hax, I'm getting voted because I made a typo and wrote "villager" instead of "village." This is the second time I'm being run up and the first time, I was run up by the sorcerer.

Also, it seems weird that there is so much resistance to the Arkasas case. He made a throw-away vote on Day 1 and he too followed the Caillean bandwagon (the same case that has been used against me).

unvote esemesas
vote arkasas

Dedonus then for some reason, instead of self-preservation attempts to shift the vote to arkasas, but he's not as pretty as me, so no-one bites when he does it

Unvote Yvanoff
Vote esemesas

TIE!

Seems Yvanoff hasn't even bothered to show up to vote yet.

Unvote Arkasas
Vote Yvanoff

Hax an Sleepyhead restore the TIE. Might be suspicious, might just be the usual pre-deadline setups we always do. I'd say 50/50.

5 minutes left

three-way TIE

STAY TUNED!

Oh boy, had I been home I would've been mashing the F5 key like crazy

unvote Arkasas
vote yvanoff

Unvote Esemesas
Vote Dedonus

And so Dedonus attempts to save himself and alxeu cements himself as either a very brutal packamte or not a yellow.

Final vote count

Yvanoff - 6 - beartjah, OrangeYoshi, Xarkan, Caillean, Sleepyhead, Dedonus
Dedonus - 6 - reis91, brovahkiin, Avernite, Arkasas, Capibara, alxeu
esemesas - 4 - alynkio, aedan777, Claude LC, Hax
Arkasas - 1 - esemesas

not voted - 1 - Yvanoff

missed 2 votes - 1 - Claude LC

Suspects from Day 3: Xarkan, alynkio, aedan, Hax, Sleepyhead, Caillean (last three are meh)
Unlikely yellows: alxeu, Capibara, Avernite, Arkasas, brovah, reis

 

[esemesas]

Xarkan is already receiving votes, so I think alynkio merits looking into. He started the switch to Yakman on Day 1 that Dedonus tried ot hide behind and then on Day 3 he followed Dedonus case against me. A bit obvious for packmates, but worth looking into.

Vote alynkio

 

[reis91]

Hax could be a Yellow, but it's Hax, you just never know. He will sell out his entire pack in the most brutal fashion if that means a win. And yes, alynkio also looks suspicious, but I don't see why we should discount Caillean and Sleepyhead.

Also, given Dedonus's PM shenanigans, it is perfectly possible for there to be sellout votes, so I'd say only Alxeu is kind of cleared from being a yellow... (assuming he wasn't turned by a Yellow conditional hunt order on whoever sniped Dedonus) so I guess that some protection thrown his way could be worthwhile.

 

[Sleepyhead]

Well, he really didn't want to snipe Dedonus to save himself and went to the trouble of "sending a PM" to him to get him to vote a third party (FatWombat).

Also, he said "those PMs" when only one PM was divulged, as Hax pointed out, implying that there was a convo going on. I'll try to dig out the posts when I have a bit more time.

You're completely off, I was ready to snipe unless Dedonus did as we agreed - as he did I saw no need to act. And two PMs were posted, his and mine in two different posts.

Should we be worried that neither you nor Hax know what plural is?

Actually, Hax has been acting odd and he immediately voted Yvanoff up there yesterday when Dedonus got tied in the lead. Plus he picked Yvanoff for a reason which applied to Arkasas as well but ignored mentioning it. I think it is high time we run him up.

Vote Hax

 

[beartjah]

Assuming I made no mistakes in this:

Day 1

Spoiler

TheFatWombat - 6 - alxeu, Sleepyhead, Capibara, Cailean, Xarkan, Dedonus
Sleepyhead - 5 - k-59, randakar, Hax, brovahkiin, TheFatWombat
Dedonus - 5 - Avernite, Yakman, Yvanoff, Orange Yoshi, aedan777
alynkio - 2 - reis91, esemesas
Yakman - 1 - alynkio
brovahkiin - 1 - beartjah
k-59 - 1 - Arkasas

not voted - 2 - Claude LC, Dr.ramius

Day 2

Spoiler

Yakman - 4 - Capibara, Avernite, brovahkiin, Sleepyhead
Caillean - 3 - alynkio, Arkasas, Dedonus
Xarkan - 3 - alxeu, aedan777, esemesas
Capibara - 3 - beartjah, Hax, Xarkan
brovahkiin - 1 - Yvanoff
beartjah - 1 - Yakman
Sleepyhead - 1 - OrangeYoshi
Dr.ramius - 1 - reis91
Claude LC - 1 - Caillean
Dedonus - 1 - k-59

not voted - 2 - Claude LC, Dr.ramius

missed 1 vote - 2 - Claude LC, Dr.ramius

Day 3

Spoiler

Yvanoff - 6 - beartjah, OrangeYoshi, Xarkan, Caillean, Sleepyhead, Dedonus
Dedonus - 6 - reis91, brovahkiin, Avernite, Arkasas, Capibara, alxeu
esemesas - 4 - alynkio, aedan777, Claude LC, Hax
Arkasas - 1 - esemesas

not voted - 1 - Yvanoff

missed 2 votes - 1 - Claude LC

]