Werewolf CCXV: Fourtytwo

[Tornadoli]

Interest in one case, votes another. Class ese packmate.

Yup, typical "I would TOTALLY LOVE TO VOTE WAGONLITZ, but I'm gonna vote someone else" spiel by Ithvan.

So we've got two baddies already, nice.

 

[Ithvan]

 

[RedInc]

Do I smell a TIE?

 

[Sleepyhead]

OOC: Lemeard suck puppet detected

 

[PanzerCorps]

Isn't it usually villagers who are quieter the first few days? I mean as someone explained before, baddies are the ones with an incentive to move the vote off their packmates(and surely we have at least a few in the running with the vote this spread out?) while villagers kind of just have nothing to go on so they vote one person and stick to it all day? (The post also argued goodie scanners might try some shenanigans too but to be honest that feels like way too risky for me)

 

[Gen. Marshall]

Isn't it usually villagers who are quieter the first few days? I mean as someone explained before, baddies are the ones with an incentive to move the vote off their packmates(and surely we have at least a few in the running with the vote this spread out?) while villagers kind of just have nothing to go on so they vote one person and stick to it all day? (The post also argued goodie scanners might try some shenanigans too but to be honest that feels like way too risky for me)

Depends on the person, you really can't make generalised statements about how active people are in a certain role. But when Wagonlitz doesn't plaster the thread with his shitposting, he has something to hide.

 

[RedInc]

OOC: Lemeard suck puppet detected

I don't think I like your tone, Dear Reader.

 

[madchemist]

<roleplay>

*Snip*

</roleplay>

I've decided I like RedInc already.

Oh, I had completely forgotten about this game.

Vote Yakman

He's younger and therefore more marketable than me. I must take him out.

The classic "vote the guy who just got hunted" strategy. Generally useless as a tell, despite always drawing a couple of votes.

Also Jackson has a point.
Might well be the last time we get to:
Vote madchemist

(Think that's the first time in something like 2 years I've written out his name when voting him.

I appreciate the implicit acknowledgment that no sane person will have any excuse, even a bad one, to vote me should I survive into the mid-game.

Early day 1 voting (up to 3 hours before deadline) doesn't really indicate too much, as votes can easily be changed. Some people do roleplay votes. Others randomize their first votes, so their votes are worthless from an analysis standpoint. Others develop weird systems (like math formulas) for determining votes. Still others vote people who haven't voted yet or players with a tendency to be inactive.

Close to deadline, anywhere from 2 to 5 people tend to rise to the top of the voting records, and one of two things happen: 1) a consensus forms that one of the leaders should die (largely based on which one of them argues less forcefully for their survival), or 2) a vote switch to someone not in the initial vote running occurs.

As deadline approaches, wolves tend to try to subtly save their packmates (if any are in danger), and goodie scanners tend to try to push in favor of baddies they have scanned (if they catch one) or away from people they have partially cleared. Looking for major shifts for or against one candidate is often helpful. That is often where the analysts get material to work from in future days.

The TL;DR version is that the meaning behind the D1 votes can usually only be determined retroactively, once new information is to be had.

Unvote Wagon
Vote madchemist

Muh, last chance to vote him, muh...

Totally unrelated to him slagging off my game.

Uh huh.

Hax is still giving me a funny feeling from yesterday, potentially a wolf and I feel worth a shot at providing pressure:

VOTE HAX

This is interesting. Would you care to elaborate?

(I guess you're referring to your post #281. Meh. I'm unimpressed.)

Why not lynch madchemist instead? It's his last game!

That would be petty, foolish, and expressly counter to the village's win condition.

Oh right, you're Tornadoli. Carry on.

My inner self says that I want to play a Werewolf game with MC.

Aww.

There aren't many people who are suspicious if they avoid attention on Day 0 and 1. However, there is one of them.

Unvote Kaiser
Vote Wagonlitz

I've said it before, and will say it again: it is easy to tell when Wagon is a baddie. One of his telltale signs is being unusually quiet, and not spamming crap all the time.

Good job in noticing that this time, I am a bit disappointed that I didn't realise this before. I blame other distractions.

Unvote madchemist
Vote Wagonlitz

What indeed would day 1 be without a Wagonlitz run-up?

Though in Wagon's defense, there's a very real chance that he might not be online, unusual as that would be for him. He hasn't posted anything since yesterday.

 

[Capibara]

Let's make this close, shall we?

VOTE JACKSONIAN MISSIONARY

 

[enkhuush]

Yeah, let's tie. Vote Jacksonian Missionary

 

[Jacksonian Missionary]

I don't like this. It is very much against the village's interest to lynch MC's sockpuppet a very active and helpful tool for the village.

 

[johho888]

Official vote count, 3h 6min to deadline

Jacksonian Missionary - 6 - madchemist, Panzer Commader, Canadian_95_RTS, Ithvan, Capibara, enkhuush
Gen. Marshall - 4 - NotOK.12, esemesas, Redinc, Hazbot
Hazbot - 4 - jeray2000, Sleepyhead, Jacksonian Missionary, Spockyt
Wagonlitz - three - EUROO7, Gen. Marshall, Tornadoli
Health - 2 - Daffius, Steed
Kaisersohaib - 1.5 - LatinKaiser, JCan/2
LatinKaiser - 1.5 - JCan/2, Kaisersohaib
esemesas - 1 - Wagonlitz
madchemist - 1 - Lemeard
Audren - 1 - alxeu
Comm Cody - 1 - aedan777
Rovsea - 1 - deathbywombat
Canadian_95_RTS - 1 - Health
Lemeard - 1 - Cliges
Hax - 1 - AvatarOfKhaine
Tornadoli - 0.5 - De Chatillôn/2
EUROO7 - 0.5 - De Chatillôn/2
ithvan - 1 - Audren

Not voted - 8 - k-59, Hax, horny99, Comm Cody, Citizen1oo1, ClaudLC, Brown Demon, jonas-Lövgren

 

[Jacksonian Missionary]

Let's make it close. By pushing someone into the lead by 2 votes of course!

 

[johho888]

jonas-Lövgren: Logically there are more goodies than baddies in the game. It would follow that it's more likely that the more people got extra traits day 0, the more power to goodies. Ergo opposing a TIE for traits is counter to the village interests. vote Gen. Marshall.

 

[PanzerCorps]

Depends on the person, you really can't make generalised statements about how active people are in a certain role. But when Wagonlitz doesn't plaster the thread with his shitposting, he has something to hide.

Might be, I guess. I don't really remember how Wagon plays.

I appreciate the implicit acknowledgment that no sane person will have any excuse, even a bad one, to vote me should I survive into the mid-game.

That would be petty, foolish, and expressly counter to the village's win condition.

You're that good?

 

[jeray2000]

I've said it before, and will say it again: it is easy to tell when Wagon is a baddie. One of his telltale signs is being unusually quiet, and not spamming crap all the time.

Good job in noticing that this time, I am a bit disappointed that I didn't realise this before. I blame other distractions.

Unvote madchemist
Vote Wagonlitz

Let's not lynch Wagonlitz because he is not spamming. We want to encourage this behaviour, not punish it.

 

[Audren]

All of these candidates are underwhelming. Ithvan and/or Esemesas should be lynched.

 

[Claude LC]

Vote hazbot

 

[Audren]

Vote hazbot

Why?

 

[Lemeard]

Everyone left, leaving me as the lone vote on MC