Erm... Whut?
I felt a wolfish vibe from him, so I voted him, but I wasn't certain and I wasn't telling others to vote him.
Vote Yakman
For obvious lying
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I felt a wolfish vibe from him, so I voted him, but I wasn't certain and I wasn't telling others to vote him.
Vote Yakman
For obvious lying
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You know, on some level, I can't really believe the Yak is a wolf, because his lying is so transparent. He's practically daring us to lynch him, and what sort of wolf would do that? (The bad kind.)
On another level, the Man of Yaks could be a wolf relying on his too-obviousness to ensure his own survival. There is simply no telling with him. He makes EURO look like a sane, well-adjusted, marriageable man.
On another level, the Man of Yaks could be a wolf relying on his too-obviousness to ensure his own survival. There is simply no telling with him. He makes EURO look like a sane, well-adjusted, marriageable man.
So we have come to the point where the Yakman question needs to be answered do we lynch him or not?
Ark is right you never know with him.
Ark is right you never know with him.
apologies for missing last nights vote. i was very drunk. did get a scan in tho and I have a confirmed villager. did have the read on sleepy
vote team wombat
the list of people who need some voting is pretty small at the moment and he's one of them. His most recent posts have been a little dramatic, and I don't think his voting record is good either
vote team wombat
the list of people who need some voting is pretty small at the moment and he's one of them. His most recent posts have been a little dramatic, and I don't think his voting record is good either
We need to focus on Reds now obviously. This is the most substantive thing DNFC did. It tied EURO with Caillean. Caillean is a decent lynch today.
I am robbed. I am nothing. You are spending your day lynching a non entity
Alright, I do actually have some time this morning. Let's do some analysis.
Who's still in the game?
2- CaptainGrimlock as sir Grim of the New England Lockes
Claimed OEO. This is an odd claim to make, as there was already an OEO from turn one. However, he's seemed to me to be a villager, albeit a confused one. I actually think hunter is a more likely possibility - we haven't seen a kill role this game on the goodie side aside from the pathological liar.
If he's not a hunter, maybe deserves a look as a possible Pole. He's almost certainly not a Frenchie - voted EnvyDemon day 1, and he's allergic to voting packmates.
3- Arkasas
The previous day's events have shown that at the very least is a very unlikely Frenchie. Maybe a Pole? I'm not 100% percent sold on him being a goodie, but he's a much worse lynch than he was yesterday.
4- Dedonus
Helpful as always. Was on sleepyhead yesterday so he's an unlikely Frenchie, and his posts have read pretty villagerish to me. Not a great lynch.
5- Ironhide as Dmitry Bortniansky.
Activated alderman day 1, posts have been very villagerish. Definitely not a Frenchie (voted EnvyDemon AND sleepyhead). Maybe could be a Pole... but that seems unlikely to me.
10- Beartjah subbed by Mawofdoom II.
His switch onto arkasas late to force a tie looks much worse in hindsight, and his voting record has been abysmal. Throwaway vote day 1, on Witch Agatha day 2, voted Seen day 3 pre outing, voted WitchAgatha day 4, then yesterday's snipe to Arkasas.
Definite baddie possibility based on voting record alone. However, his posts as both MAW 1.0 and MAW 2.0 have felt villagerish to me. Not really sure what to think here, which annoys me since he's my brother.
11- Culann
Almost certain goodie, based on the following:
1) Activated cloak at a very odd time.
2) Was lover with Agatha. We know now that euro and randy were lovers and were both evil, so presumably there was a pair of goodie lovers, as well.
15- Yakman
He has driven the action for the last two days, with uneven results at best. Too many weird things going on with him to be ignored this point.
16- Aedan
Definitely not a Frenchman with his snipe to kill sleepyhead. I suppose it's technically possible he could be a Pole, but the snipe feels like a villager aedan move to me.
19- Seen
Apparently he's been seer and sorc scanned by Avernite, and no one has contradicted that. Presumably a goodie unless proven otherwise, or more likely never.
21- Alynkio as Fyodor Dolokhov
Clearly invested in the game, and posts definitely read villagerish. Somewhat surprisingly, his voting record hasn't been too great, though - only baddie he's voted was the sorc, who presumably didn't start with a pack.
23- Caillean
Switched onto sleepy over arkasas yesterday fairly late, so almost certainly not a Frenchie. Could still be a Pole, though.
26- the_hdk
Honestly, I forgot he was even playing this game. Definitely not a Frenchie though - sniped to EnvyDemon on day 1. Been on yakman the past couple days, which I endorse. Probably not the best lynch.
27- Marty99
Claimed alchemist. However, we've already seen a goodie alchemist this game (Capage). Are there really two goodie alchemists in the game? Also... he claimed alchemist on turn 4 and cleared randakar as a wolf... after elowen was outed and called for baddies to contact her.
Combine that with a spotty voting record (voted sleepy day 3, marshall? day 4, hasn't voted days 1 and 5,) and rather cavalier attitude towards the game, and he's my sleeper pick for a baddie.
28- R.Graymarch
He's been incredibly quiet... and Dedonus makes a pretty convincing case against him. The one caveat is that he's often confused in bigs as either a villager or a wolf.
30- Sofia Alexandrovna Rostova subbed by Marshmallow Marshall.
At absolutely minimum almost certainly not a Frenchie - voted EnvyDemon day 1. Reading like a confused villager to me, but I don't know enough about his playstyle to be able to make a proper judgment.
Vote Yakman
Also perfectly happy with Graymarch and marty99 as candidates. Caillean and MAWofDoom (maybe Marshmallow Marshall?) are within the realm of possibility, as well.
Who's still in the game?
2- CaptainGrimlock as sir Grim of the New England Lockes
Claimed OEO. This is an odd claim to make, as there was already an OEO from turn one. However, he's seemed to me to be a villager, albeit a confused one. I actually think hunter is a more likely possibility - we haven't seen a kill role this game on the goodie side aside from the pathological liar.
If he's not a hunter, maybe deserves a look as a possible Pole. He's almost certainly not a Frenchie - voted EnvyDemon day 1, and he's allergic to voting packmates.
3- Arkasas
The previous day's events have shown that at the very least is a very unlikely Frenchie. Maybe a Pole? I'm not 100% percent sold on him being a goodie, but he's a much worse lynch than he was yesterday.
4- Dedonus
Helpful as always. Was on sleepyhead yesterday so he's an unlikely Frenchie, and his posts have read pretty villagerish to me. Not a great lynch.
5- Ironhide as Dmitry Bortniansky.
Activated alderman day 1, posts have been very villagerish. Definitely not a Frenchie (voted EnvyDemon AND sleepyhead). Maybe could be a Pole... but that seems unlikely to me.
10- Beartjah subbed by Mawofdoom II.
His switch onto arkasas late to force a tie looks much worse in hindsight, and his voting record has been abysmal. Throwaway vote day 1, on Witch Agatha day 2, voted Seen day 3 pre outing, voted WitchAgatha day 4, then yesterday's snipe to Arkasas.
Definite baddie possibility based on voting record alone. However, his posts as both MAW 1.0 and MAW 2.0 have felt villagerish to me. Not really sure what to think here, which annoys me since he's my brother.
11- Culann
Almost certain goodie, based on the following:
1) Activated cloak at a very odd time.
2) Was lover with Agatha. We know now that euro and randy were lovers and were both evil, so presumably there was a pair of goodie lovers, as well.
15- Yakman
He has driven the action for the last two days, with uneven results at best. Too many weird things going on with him to be ignored this point.
16- Aedan
Definitely not a Frenchman with his snipe to kill sleepyhead. I suppose it's technically possible he could be a Pole, but the snipe feels like a villager aedan move to me.
19- Seen
Apparently he's been seer and sorc scanned by Avernite, and no one has contradicted that. Presumably a goodie unless proven otherwise, or more likely never.
21- Alynkio as Fyodor Dolokhov
Clearly invested in the game, and posts definitely read villagerish. Somewhat surprisingly, his voting record hasn't been too great, though - only baddie he's voted was the sorc, who presumably didn't start with a pack.
23- Caillean
Switched onto sleepy over arkasas yesterday fairly late, so almost certainly not a Frenchie. Could still be a Pole, though.
26- the_hdk
Honestly, I forgot he was even playing this game. Definitely not a Frenchie though - sniped to EnvyDemon on day 1. Been on yakman the past couple days, which I endorse. Probably not the best lynch.
27- Marty99
Claimed alchemist. However, we've already seen a goodie alchemist this game (Capage). Are there really two goodie alchemists in the game? Also... he claimed alchemist on turn 4 and cleared randakar as a wolf... after elowen was outed and called for baddies to contact her.
Combine that with a spotty voting record (voted sleepy day 3, marshall? day 4, hasn't voted days 1 and 5,) and rather cavalier attitude towards the game, and he's my sleeper pick for a baddie.
28- R.Graymarch
He's been incredibly quiet... and Dedonus makes a pretty convincing case against him. The one caveat is that he's often confused in bigs as either a villager or a wolf.
30- Sofia Alexandrovna Rostova subbed by Marshmallow Marshall.
At absolutely minimum almost certainly not a Frenchie - voted EnvyDemon day 1. Reading like a confused villager to me, but I don't know enough about his playstyle to be able to make a proper judgment.
Vote Yakman
Also perfectly happy with Graymarch and marty99 as candidates. Caillean and MAWofDoom (maybe Marshmallow Marshall?) are within the realm of possibility, as well.
It feels slightly symbolic to die after killing Sleepy, who was mocking me with his terrible french accented russian for days.
- 1
Votecount, 6 hours, 2 minutes to deadline:
Yakman - 4:
Marshmallow Marshall [832]
Caillean [841]
the_hdk [847]
Team Wombat [851]
R.Graymarch - 2:
Dedonus [826]
Yakman [827]
Team Wombat - 2:
Culann [831]
marty99 [845]
Not-Voted - 8:
CaptainGrimlock
Arkasas
Ironhide G1
MAWofdoom
Aedan777
Seen
alynkio
R.Graymarch
Yakman - 4:
Marshmallow Marshall [832]
Caillean [841]
the_hdk [847]
Team Wombat [851]
R.Graymarch - 2:
Dedonus [826]
Yakman [827]
Team Wombat - 2:
Culann [831]
marty99 [845]
Not-Voted - 8:
CaptainGrimlock
Arkasas
Ironhide G1
MAWofdoom
Aedan777
Seen
alynkio
R.Graymarch
It is usually ABABABAB, or ABBAABBA, but sometimes people like panzer do weird out of the ordinary hunt orders. As for why wolves wouldn’t reveal it, the less information the village has, the better from the wolves perspective.Oh, so it's just a part of the OoO. Why in the world would it be an endless string of letters then lol? Isn't it just AB or BA?
Also, that isn't terribly helpful or damning for wolves, so... "Yes, because wolves often give away the hunt order. Truly, MarshMarsh, you are a genius without parallel."
Well yes, Arka, I don't see why they wouldn't if there's a town role who can get that info...
And yeah, Wombat is usually more active than this. Something must be up. It could be something IRL, but then lynching him would be a mercy.
So then, 3 wolves remain out of 18 players. A baddie a day keeps parity away is totally how the saying goes. I really hope this continues until the end as this is just quite perfect.
Hopefully this is a read on everyone or at least most people, though I may miss a few.
Unlikely wolves:
Ironhide seems very much like villager ironhide this game, and his vote on envy as an alderman simply would not be done by a French ironhide, so while nothing fully clears him from the Poles (no one really is though anyway), wolf just doesn't really fit here.
Dedonus just doesn't really seem wolfish either as far as I can tell as he just seems like a normal friendly, helpful dedonus who doesn't seem to bear any allegiance to anyone.
Culann looks to me like villager culann as I very much agree with wombat's assessment that his cloak, which I guess he may have used to protect himself from heartbreak for a day (at least thats what i'm guessing from his reference to rng) would probably have been saved for later had he been a wolf.
Seen has been cleared in all the seemingly important ways unless there was a much higher number of unaligned baddies at the start of the game, so almost certain goodie.
MAW 2.0 (why would I not put myself here) is playing just as MAW 1.0 (alderMAW) did, so that should be villagerish enough. To those that think I'm actually talented to play just as I did previously despite changing alignment, I thank you, but I highly doubt my ability in that regard. As for the attempted tie, I made it believing that several votes would be needed to change (which became even more clear since people had unvoted arky while I was writing), meaning I did it to see if others wanted a tie rather than myself wanting the tie.
Unsure/more likely wolves:
Wombat doesn't seem quite as much like a villager as I expect. I'm rather surprised that he doesn't have a complete read on me as he basically always does, and it also saddens me since his reads are always right, and since I'm not a baddie i always like having a nearly always perfect assessor give an assessment of me. Him not having a read on me also makes me less sure of his goodness as I was when MAW 1.0 lived, so combined with his lessened activity at points certainly makes me wonder.
Grimlock seems somewhat confusing. My gut reaction is that he's behaving slightly differently to goodie Grimlock, but I haven't been able to look closely enough to back that up with actual evidence. His claim is also one of the safest possible since its not important enough to be unlikely that multiple people have it and it doesn't invite hunts. Him saying he's had it activated all game to me makes it seem like he does actually have it, since I personally don't activate it in order to hope wolves kill themselves, but simply having it doesn't make him a goodie
Aedan perhaps should be in unlikely wolves, but he always seems too perfect when he's a wolf for me to actually be convinced one way or the other, so I'm very unsure here.
Marty certainly seems very strange, and I really have no reason to think he's a goodie. I also haven't played much with him so I don't know, but it seems very possible that he's more likely a baddie than a goodie.
Graymarch is incredibly quiet, but the problem with that is he's always quiet. He certainly has nothing clearing him from any of the packs. I was also rather quiet originally but was eventually forced to not be by pressure each game from wombat, so there's a chance that voting him will also make him more vocal both here and later which would also be rather helpful. Pressure also sometimes makes him give a hint of his alignment so that might also be nice.
Caillean is just another one with very little info. She doesn't seem like a French but hasn't done much else to clear herself. The disagreement between caillean and yakman also makes me lean more villager due to my strong distrust of said yak but still incredibly unsure.
Yakman seems like a very good lynch to me. He seems to be acting annoyingly similar to last game in terms of the way and the commonality of his lying, making me think he's a very probable wolf (or I guess zealot due to robbing).
Arkasas is one I still don't trust very much. Doesn't seem French but certainly could be a Pole. I don't know much else to say there as besides foolishly giving yakman's outing not much has happened from him.
Hdk and Marsh are both just more people with very little information. Hdk doesn't look too different to goodie hdk, but I also don't know if i've played with a bad hdk. As i've never played with marsh, I also can't see much there.
Alynkio is another that I just never know I can trust even if they haven't done anything wrong. They do seem somewhat villagerish, but I never truly know.
With Yakman already having the most votes, I will go for my second favorite candidate to see if pressure does in fact net us any info.
Vote Graymarch
Hopefully this is a read on everyone or at least most people, though I may miss a few.
Unlikely wolves:
Ironhide seems very much like villager ironhide this game, and his vote on envy as an alderman simply would not be done by a French ironhide, so while nothing fully clears him from the Poles (no one really is though anyway), wolf just doesn't really fit here.
Dedonus just doesn't really seem wolfish either as far as I can tell as he just seems like a normal friendly, helpful dedonus who doesn't seem to bear any allegiance to anyone.
Culann looks to me like villager culann as I very much agree with wombat's assessment that his cloak, which I guess he may have used to protect himself from heartbreak for a day (at least thats what i'm guessing from his reference to rng) would probably have been saved for later had he been a wolf.
Seen has been cleared in all the seemingly important ways unless there was a much higher number of unaligned baddies at the start of the game, so almost certain goodie.
MAW 2.0 (why would I not put myself here) is playing just as MAW 1.0 (alderMAW) did, so that should be villagerish enough. To those that think I'm actually talented to play just as I did previously despite changing alignment, I thank you, but I highly doubt my ability in that regard. As for the attempted tie, I made it believing that several votes would be needed to change (which became even more clear since people had unvoted arky while I was writing), meaning I did it to see if others wanted a tie rather than myself wanting the tie.
Unsure/more likely wolves:
Wombat doesn't seem quite as much like a villager as I expect. I'm rather surprised that he doesn't have a complete read on me as he basically always does, and it also saddens me since his reads are always right, and since I'm not a baddie i always like having a nearly always perfect assessor give an assessment of me. Him not having a read on me also makes me less sure of his goodness as I was when MAW 1.0 lived, so combined with his lessened activity at points certainly makes me wonder.
Grimlock seems somewhat confusing. My gut reaction is that he's behaving slightly differently to goodie Grimlock, but I haven't been able to look closely enough to back that up with actual evidence. His claim is also one of the safest possible since its not important enough to be unlikely that multiple people have it and it doesn't invite hunts. Him saying he's had it activated all game to me makes it seem like he does actually have it, since I personally don't activate it in order to hope wolves kill themselves, but simply having it doesn't make him a goodie
Aedan perhaps should be in unlikely wolves, but he always seems too perfect when he's a wolf for me to actually be convinced one way or the other, so I'm very unsure here.
Marty certainly seems very strange, and I really have no reason to think he's a goodie. I also haven't played much with him so I don't know, but it seems very possible that he's more likely a baddie than a goodie.
Graymarch is incredibly quiet, but the problem with that is he's always quiet. He certainly has nothing clearing him from any of the packs. I was also rather quiet originally but was eventually forced to not be by pressure each game from wombat, so there's a chance that voting him will also make him more vocal both here and later which would also be rather helpful. Pressure also sometimes makes him give a hint of his alignment so that might also be nice.
Caillean is just another one with very little info. She doesn't seem like a French but hasn't done much else to clear herself. The disagreement between caillean and yakman also makes me lean more villager due to my strong distrust of said yak but still incredibly unsure.
Yakman seems like a very good lynch to me. He seems to be acting annoyingly similar to last game in terms of the way and the commonality of his lying, making me think he's a very probable wolf (or I guess zealot due to robbing).
Arkasas is one I still don't trust very much. Doesn't seem French but certainly could be a Pole. I don't know much else to say there as besides foolishly giving yakman's outing not much has happened from him.
Hdk and Marsh are both just more people with very little information. Hdk doesn't look too different to goodie hdk, but I also don't know if i've played with a bad hdk. As i've never played with marsh, I also can't see much there.
Alynkio is another that I just never know I can trust even if they haven't done anything wrong. They do seem somewhat villagerish, but I never truly know.
With Yakman already having the most votes, I will go for my second favorite candidate to see if pressure does in fact net us any info.
Vote Graymarch
As I noted Im not convinced about Yakman, even in the olden days of our empire his bloodline has been...eccentric. Could still be a baddy, just not per se based on his actions so far.
I like the cases made against Graymarch and Wombat. Except for the being 'less active' reason, everyone is allowed to take a vodka and relax even in these troubled times. And we Russians are expert in troubled times ^^. Still I'm leaning towards Wombat a bit more so:
Vote Team Wombat
Ok, this pisses me off a bit. Yes, I've been less active than normal - lack of time. Yes, it's been pointed out, deservedly so, by Culann, alynkio, and Capage. I've already explained my lack of activity as lack of time, but I can see the case against me, and would actually agree that my reads/play has been not up to my usual standards. (That's still more active than, say, at least half the player base, but still.)
Are you (or is anyone except MAW) actually going to bother to read or interact with my analysis post today, or are you just going to go hurr durr no activity? What are your thoughts, on say, Yakman? Or Graymarch? Or aedan?
Other than "he's not active," what is the case against me? (Yes, I know a case can be made against me; I just want people to be able to articulate that case other than"I like the case against Wombat.")
As I noted Im not convinced about Yakman, even in the olden days of our empire his bloodline has been...eccentric. Could still be a baddy, just not per se based on his actions so far.
I like the cases made against Graymarch and Wombat. Except for the being 'less active' reason, everyone is allowed to take a vodka and relax even in these troubled times. And we Russians are expert in troubled times ^^. Still I'm leaning towards Wombat a bit more so:
Vote Team Wombat
Behaviorally, you're reading as a villager to me. Your/beartjah's vote record is not good, however, and the snipe to arky was a bit weird. I've already listed my top 3, though, and nothing I've seen so far has shaken that conviction. I doubt marty will respond, greymarch (I know his name is graymarch - just checking to see if he'll bother to read it) won't, and Yakman is playing a different game, it seems.
I hadn’t seen your lack of time explanation. My bad. I’m not moving my vote, but that’s due to not wanting to forget about DL again.