I looked back at Day 2, one of the most eventful days of the game, to see if anything stood out. Here's what I found:
So, my thoughts;
Claude: Why, just why? Day 2 is too early for a CAWZ, and if we are assuning inactivity = wolfishness..... I mean you’d think he at least remember to cast a placeholder vote. Wolves PM’s, which at least for me show up as emails on my phone, so you’d think it would be harder for a wolf to just outright forget (unless they slept through it, but any villager can do that.) I can barely follow his line of reasoning, but whatever, this seems like a lazy vote to pursue.
Ramius the Yellow calls into question the case against Claude, mostly on the grounds of "a wolf wouldn't do X," which is never that convincing, especially when it is applied to inactivity. Not a good look for Claude here.
Ramius the Yellow said:
Cliges: His reasoning is bizarre, barely coherent, and all over the place. And that’s without checking out his votes.
Ramius doesn't like what Cliges is up to.
Ramius the Yellow said:
Sleepyhead: this one caught my eye in particular, when Bear quoted all of his posts together (and Sleepy helpfully provided his own “defense”). Reasons without any reasoning, analysis without any analysis, alot of fluffy, useless posts.
Ramius also isn't impressed with Sleepy's behavior... but is he going to vote for him? Let's see...
Ramius the Yellow said:
I would be inclined to vote for Sleepy or Cliges atm without hesitation. Alas, I see that other villagers have beat me to the punch, with a budding wagon forming on Sleepy (possible attempt to divert away from Chef?), and that following up on either would just be following yet another Euro wagon. Which does nothing to help me avoid the noose.... but when have I ever been gravely concerned about that anyway?
UNVOTE WAGON
VOTE CLIGES
...nope! Ramius, despite his suspicions, decides that there is "a budding wagon forming on Sleepy" that might be an attempt to save Chefjones (who we now know flipped villager), so he votes... Cliges. Not Chefjones, the guy he thinks might be a baddie getting saved. This looks like a possible packmate covering for Sleepy, here -- offering up just enough analysis to look like a villager who sees the merits of the case (and can look a bit better if his mate is lynched), but inventing a creative excuse to avoid actually putting his mate in greater danger.
Sleepyhead: I think he's being voted for being more RP than content? But... that's sleepyhead in every game, at least this early. A completely random vote in my mind. Good Lynch Rating = 1.5/5
Panzer's possible defense of Claude came up the other day in the case against the Late Comer, but he gave Sleepyhead the exact same "Good Lynch Rating" of 1.5. He also doesn't address the actual case on Sleepy, which, while it wasn't that strong, was something beyond "being more RP than content." Even Ramius acknowledged that.
Day 2 Votecount: 1h to deadline
Chefjones: 5
Jacksonian Missionary [290]
Panzer Commader [296]
johho888 [297]
Comm Cody [331]
Avernite [298 Marco -> 367 EURO -> 396]
Claude LC: 4
madchemist [311]
aedan [338]
Arkasas [342]
De Chat [355]
Sleepyhead: 4
beartjah [348]
Capage [344 Chef -> 358 CC -> 363]
EURO [287 Wagonlitz -> 303 Chef -> 364]
AsdfeZxcas [312 wombat -> 387]
Cliges: 3
Ironhide G1 [317]
jeray [371]
Ramius [289 Wagon ->383]
EURO: 2
MarcoRossolini [330]
Sleepyhead [339]
ramius: 2
Audren [294]
Wagonlitz [301]
Wagonlitz: 1
Chefjones [288]
madchemist: 1
Cliges [315]
De Chatillon: 1
deathbywombat [319]
Emperor Ike: 1
Jopi [340]
AsdfeZxcas: 1
Eternaly_Lost [353]
Capage: 1
MAWofdoom [354]
Audren: 1
Claude LC [357]
Not Voted: 7
@Eusebio *
@tamius23
@LatinKaiser
Emperor Ike
the_hdk
Capibara
alxeu [316 ramius -> 389 unvote]
alxeu [alderman]
This was the count shortly after those posts from the yellow wolves. As you can see, Sleepy was definitely in danger here.
Vote Sleepyhead
to remake the tie.
Tamius votes Sleepy, tieing him for the lead with Chefjones. Probably not something a packmate would do, given the situation.
Well so tempted.......that I will just do it to make things interesting.
VOTE Claude LC
Ike expands the TIE. Could be a villager being silly, could be a packmate trying to draw pressure off Sleepy without exposing himself to backlash by voting for Chefjones.
Out of these leaders, I'm most compelled by Sleepyhead, since he hasn't been leading most of the day like chefjones.
UNVOTE RAMIUS
VOTE SLEEPYHEAD
Audren votes Sleepy. Again, not something a packmate would likely do here.
I explained why I think Chefjones is the best of the current candidates.
But maybe we need new ones?
Unvote Chefjones
Vote Eusebio
Panzer the Yellow decides to follow EURO the Red onto Eusebio and tries to start a voteswitch. Possiblly to save Sleepy? Or maybe Claude? After all, Panzer could have remade a TIE by voting for Claude.
Cody is a strong yes for me, as well as hdk. I am liking the way Panzer is thinking rn, tho
EURO the Red is up for lynching some other players not in the TIE.
Yeah I could easily do hdk or cody.
Panzer the Yellow is on board.
UNVOTE CLAUDE
VOTE Eusebio the Gonzo
Ike joins the Eusebio-wagon, taking more pressure off of Claude and Sleepy, who had been frontrunners until the Eusebio/HDK/Cody switches.
I don't have time today to do a lengthy analysis but I think that wombat's list of almost certain baddies makes sense, at least to me. If I can find enough time to come back before deadline, I'll see what's developed. For now though, I picked one of the baddies who actually had a case made on him yesterday. This is just a placeholder vote.
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