Werewolf CCXLI: It's not dead, it just left five years ago to get smokes. It'll come back, I swear.

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God, that's a lot of wolves. Were we doomed from the start? 17 could potentially be 3 packs of 4, 4 cultists, and a sorcerer. Hell, we only had 36 to start with. That would mean we started past parity.

And if we proceed with this line of reasoning, that's a big assumption. If there weren't so many to start with, any estimates would be skewed. How confident are you that the set-up ratio is like that?
 
jeray usually gets picked upon early in big games, actually surprised he avoided the attention this long.
That's because I'm usually very active early in big games. Activity leads to being lynched far more often than inactivity. I don't like that meta for the forum, but that's apparently what everyone else has settled on, so I've been taking advantage of it this game. Also I really have been busy.

I was. I'm not affiliated with the JL in any way. I just like using bolding/colouring to get people to follow what I want.
Suspicious on Wagon's part. JL looking text is misleading to the village and can very easily lead someone to feel confident about placing a vote and leaving for the rest of the day.

I'm going to accuse Wagon of being a Red or Purple wolf. He shot a yellow wolf, but that fits with the motivations of Red and Purple. Normally a wolf getting that much attention is a bad idea, but with the Seer dead early likely before getting an apprentice, and with two players with Seerish scans down, it could be a good calculated risk on Wagon's part to try to become a JL insider. At the very least, even if no one find's my case convincing, I ask the JL to not assume Wagon is trustworthy.
 
Posted that too early by mistake. Here's the second part, admittedly not very long: Wagon was adamant about not having a TIE, possibly to save his packmate LatinKaiser. Plus from all y'all perspectives, even though I know I'm not a wolf, you don't and in fact apparently have me as a top wolf candidate, so Wagon could have been saving me.

Vote Wagonlitz
 
God, that's a lot of wolves. Were we doomed from the start? 17 could potentially be 3 packs of 4, 4 cultists, and a sorcerer. Hell, we only had 36 to start with. That would mean we started past parity.

And if we proceed with this line of reasoning, that's a big assumption. If there weren't so many to start with, any estimates would be skewed. How confident are you that the set-up ratio is like that?

I've done some reflecting, and yes, I think 17 starting baddies is certainly not possible, but 15 starting baddies is possible - if whoever the sorc is gets really lucky with scanning. Here's how it would work:

Assuming a 3 pack setup, a typical pack would probably have have the following:

3 wolves
1 cultist

That makes 3 packs of 12. A sorcerer would make 13, and a sorcs apprentice or an unattached cultist would make 14 or even 15 starting baddies. for a 36 player game

Now, If the sorc gets really lucky and picks up an apprentice or even 2 apprentices, that makes 14/15 baddies to start the game... 2 extras picked up over the course of the game would make that 16/17. Suddenly that ridiculously high number makes a bit more sense, setupwise - 14 (14 out of 36 equals 38%) or 15 starting baddies (15 out of 36 equals 42%). Bad luck (wolves only hitting each other for 1 hunt, an apprentice or 2 falling to the sorcerer, the cloaking incident losing the village a turn and two villagers) makes the rest possible.

That's the only way the numbers make sense. Or else wagon is either wrong about the numbers (I suppose that's a possibility, he did get the initial parity count wrong) or lying, but I don't see him having incentive to lie about that.

(I have no idea what a 4 pack setup would look like, but I suppose a 4 pack game is theoretically possible.)
 
Gold Pack was always destined to win. The game is just a formality.
 
So there are three packs. Do you guys recall how Capage jumped to this very conclusion with the second pack reveal way back in the week? I thought it was odd. Now that we know he was right, I'm thinking he had this knowledge already at that point.

So, we have yellow and red wolves. Serious question: Do you think these are all wolves we have or is another pack likely with 36 players? I think it's possible to finally use wagons to get us some results.
Euro pushed for quite a few people too. I think all of these aren't part of red wolves.
Cliges or Cody post could be distancing.

Vote Capage

We might need to look into Avernite's activity a bit more to so who fits there. As regards euro, that Wagon save was egregious but seeing his actions now, I'm willing to give him the benefit of a doubt. Even though I must admit, his actions yesterday would fit with a vengeful red: ramius was one of the eurovoters.

As to alxeu and in case there still is a rump JL anywhere, I want to pass on this message to prevent anyone outing themselves: it appears as if shots bypass protection. I was set to use my only 1x angelic powers on him (no, I'm not the GA wolves) yesterday, but it landed on my back-up instead. You can check this with the joyous felines as I did.

Not very happy that Eternaly Lost and Ironhide kept their votes on Avernite all day yesterday.
 
Here's the horrifying part. If wagon is to be believed on the number of baddies left in the game, this is going to be really hard for the village to win...

If there were 15 baddies night 4, and only 2 baddies died yesterday, that would mean that there are 13 baddies and 9 goodies remaining. That number is insane - it would mean the baddies are already well past parity. So... either aedan or wagon were wrong (is it possible the baddie count is from an earlier day?), or we need to play the remaining packs off one another somehow to have even a chance of survival.

It would also mean that if I am right and wagon/capage/azsdfeczas/De Chat are 4 "known" goodies, 13 out of the remaining 18 players in this list are baddies. (Well, 13 out of 17, as I am a rather PO villager at this point).

2. Comm Cody subbed by alynkio
6. jeray2000 as What is dead? Baby don't hunt me, don't hunt me, no more.
9. Audren as a zombified accountant
10. tamius23
14. MarcoRossolini
15. deathbywombat
16. Cliges
18. Sleepyhead
20. LatinKaiser
21. Eternaly_Lost
24. Emperor Ike
25. Jacksonian Missionary
27. Jopi
29. Capibara subbed by Chieron 2.0
30. Johho888
33. Claude LC
34. Ironhide G1 as the pack of smokes
36. MAWofdoom


I need to take a break and think this through.
I think the way to go is to attempt as many TIEs as possible between these and hope for some wolf-on-wolf action. Not sure I would say wombat's 4 "known" goodies are all that certain but I wouldn't start with any of them anyway.

The problem is if we have exactly one scan result that needs killing off. Attempting a tie between an outed player and an unknown tends to not works so good.

Of the 18 I would avoid Ike, Claude and Chieron because they are unlikely packmate's of EURO from one of the stronger packs, the Reds. (I haven't checked who wouldn't fit with Avernite of the other stronger pack, the Purple, might do it later today)

Let's go somewhere new:

vote Eternaly_Lost
 
For the record: Avernite was hunter-shot by me on request from alx. Out of useful abilities now.
I'm only a villager now.

That crossfire of alx and Wagon is indeed rather intriguing.
I hope that there aren't that many baddies around, vote analysis is all but impossible, if the baddies' vote record easily can look like a villager's. The chance to vote another pack is just so high. This would mean 5 members per pack, or four packs of 4 each?
Do we know, when aedan actually claimed psychic ?
Too bad Arkasas did not use his powers and announce the result before he died.
 
Here's the horrifying part. If wagon is to be believed on the number of baddies left in the game, this is going to be really hard for the village to win...

It would also mean that if I am right and wagon/capage/azsdfeczas/De Chat are 4 "known" goodies, 13 out of the remaining 18 players in this list are baddies. (Well, 13 out of 17, as I am a rather PO villager at this point).

2. Comm Cody subbed by alynkio
6. jeray2000
9. Audren as a zombified accountant
10. tamius23
14. MarcoRossolini
15. deathbywombat
16. Cliges
18. Sleepyhead
20. LatinKaiser
21. Eternaly_Lost
24. Emperor Ike
25. Jacksonian Missionary
27. Jopi
29. Capibara subbed by Chieron 2.0
30. Johho888
33. Claude LC
34. Ironhide G1 as the pack of smokes
36. MAWofdoom


I need to take a break and think this through.

Well, better get to killing as many of them as fast as we can. Apart from me, obviously. Really, I guess it's simply a matter of choosing the 5 (4!) people on the list we consider most likely innocent and summarily murdering the rest.

6. jeray2000 -- Voted Alxeu day 1 early and vanished. Cliges day 2, Sheeping Euro and vanishing. Voted Sleepy day 3, inquiring about the day 2 vote switching. Voted Arky day 4, Sheeping Avernite. Voted Lk yesterday, seemingly in self defense. Now is voting Wagon, who Alxeu apparently trusted enough to entrust the psychic results to. His point is technically correct, but it seems relatively unlikely to me that Wagon is evil. Voted by Ramius the yellow, and openly coordinated with wolves from the other 2 packs. Has been very quiet up until now. No role claim. Would say he fits the profile of an unalligned baddie quite well.

9. Audren -- Voted HDK day 1, Sleepy day 2, Cliges day 3, switched around yesterday before landing on Jeray. Made a case for Tamius. Terse, but generally seems to have been a voice of reason. No role claim.

10. tamius23 -- Throwaway against Cody/Me day 1, quiet vote against HDK day 2, voted against Chieron-Capi day 3 to forestall a sub. On HDK again yesterday. I like Tamius, and her case against HDK did make sense. Still, I get the sense she might just be dialing it in as a baddie. The Capibara vote especially seemed to be a dodge on taking a real stand. Hasn't really had a lot of attention yet either. No role claim.

14. MarcoRossolini -- Throwaway against Lostie day 1 citing lack of reasoning. Disapproved of Euro's Chaos day 2, angrily feuded with Cliges day 3, voted MAW for quietness day 4, switched from LK to Jopi yesterday. Seems like a relatively earnest noobie, though not impossible he's evil. No role claim.

15. deathbywombat -- Voted Nepechri for casting a bandwagonney vote day 1, DeChat for trying to kill his brother and vanishing day 2, Capi day 3 for zombeism, Lk for his anti-Ike pro-Euro vote day 4, and Jeray for uselessness yesterday. Helpful, and obviously following along, if not quite the dominating Wombat performances I've seen. Also, SA is a bit odd a trait for a goodie to claim. Still, probably not our best choice.

16. Cliges-- Voted Jeray day 1, Inscrutable day 2 vote against MC. Ike day 3 for self defense, originally on Capage for burgers, Jeray yesterday for silence. What even to say about Cliges? The man is enjoying himself clearly. His comments are largely inscrutable, if enjoyable to read. I'm not convinced Cliges is a wolf so much as I'm relatively sure plenty of other people aren't wolves. Given how many baddies are left, I'm basically forced to conclude Cliges is among their number.

18. Sleepyhead -- Voted DBW day 1 for rp reasons (this is permissible day 1!) Continued against Euro day 2 and was called out by Beartjah. Retaliated against Capage, before participating in the switches to save himself day 2. Most of his voters are probable goodies. Continued against likely villager Capage day 3. Was voting Wagonlitz for pro-Euro vote day 4, had an okay case against DeChat, but seemed to miss Alxeu advocating for him. Defensive, as usual, and a bit slow to activate, but most of his later posts seem to have the village's interests at heart. With so many remaining baddies, however, not sure I'd stake the game on his innocence. Not my favorite, but really more likely baddie than not given the sheer number of baddies around.

20. LatinKaiser -- Voted Wombat day 1, Sleepy before participating in the switches and landing on me day 2, Pro Euro vote against Ike day 3. Was on Arky day 4, openly challenged JL legitimacy before begging for his life yesterday. Has been extensively litigated. Has received notable votes from Ramius the yellow and Avernite the purple. Arguably a potential Red. Publicly claimed priestly scan, and his 'please don't kill me I'm a villager' whine was relatively convincing (though obviously not clearing). Honestly, probably not our best choice all things considered.

21. Eternaly_Lost -- Voted IH day 1, Asdfe day 2 (both throwaway) Voted Cliges day 3 for Ties... And Avernite after that. We know very little about E_L, and at this point, that's very damning. Claimed restless, but nothing says a baddie couldn't have this trait.

24. Emperor Ike -- Anti-Euro crusader day 1, Claude before Eusebio day 2, Euro again day 3, JOPI and HDK yesterday. Rarely provided much justification for his votes, but strung up next to a baddie day 3, and made a public role claim (even if healing powers are fairly easy for an aligned baddie to claim). Not clear, but probably not our best target.

25. Jacksonian Missionary -- Tried to kill his cousin day 1, CJ before participating in the switches day 2, missed day 3, reasonable case on Tamius day 4, Jeray day 5. Not as active as I'm used to seeing him, but most of these votes are defensible (ChefJonez seemed kinda lazy). Again, not a bad candidate, but I don't know if he's my favorite.

27. Jopi -- Voted Nepechri day 1, proceeded to tunnel Ike for 2 days, was on Arky day 4 and didn't switch killing him off [in fairness, the Arky case was decent] before going after DeChat and Jeray yesterday. Hasn't been too active, but most of his posts have made sense. Like many others, to few plausible goodies for me to not kinda suspect him. I'm more sold on the innocence of others.

29. Capibara subbed by Chieron 2.0 Capi Tunnelled Euro, Chieron switched between Lk and HDK yesterday. Hasn't really made much of an impression, but a moderately unlikely Red Wolf. Like many others on this list, not a blatant wolf, but with so many baddies apparently out there, I'm rather skeptical of his innocence.

30. Johho888 -- Voted Alxeu day 1, CJ day 2, Arky day 3, all basically placeholders. Was on LK day 4. Missed the missive not to vote DeChat yesterday. Hard to read, but sorta get the sense he's been gliding. Given the number of remaining baddies, not an unreasonable vote.

33. Claude LC -- Missed day 1. Voted Audren and the Hdk day 2, Euro day 3 (should be noted that Claude isn't shy about voting his mates) Wagon yesterday. Killing Claude is usually a good idea.

34. Ironhide G1 as the pack of smokes -- Missed day 1, Tunnelled Cliges for 2 days, before voting Wagon. Then basically vanished. While I am coming around to the Idea that Cliges is evil, the rationales offered before have basically amounted to Cliges is acting like Cliges, therefore he's evil, QED. Mysterious vanishing doesn't really recommend him either. Once again, the sheer number of remaining baddies does not make me confident in his innocence.

36. MAWofdoom -- I'm getting sick of doing these. I don't really remember him adding much. Probably a skating baddie, let's kill him.
 
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The number of bad guys is really worrisome, but in a tri-pack game, the number of bad guys usually needs to be a bit higher to balance out the interpack fighting. With the JL in shambles, hopefully the bad guys will be focusing on hunting one another from now on.

I'll come back later for more reading about yesterday's confusing events, but for now a placeholder vote on someone who feels suspicious to me.

Vote Jacksonian Missionary
 
I forgot Capage conmanned Euro, I don't have him in the clear but I admit he should not be a prime target for the time being.

I'll follow johho on EL, he sat on Avernite all day yesterday as I noted and we basically have no information on him.

Unvote Capage
Vote Eternaly Lost
 
Tamius and Lostie are my favorites for today. Lostie has votes, Tamius does not. Would be fine with MAW or Claude too. The more deaths the merrier here.


VOTE TAMIUS
 
1st Day 6 Votecount
Day 6 Votecount: 5h 35m to deadline

tamius: 2
Audren [962]
alynkio [994]

Eternaly_Lost: 2
johho [989]
Sleepy [988 Capage -> 993]

Wagonlitz: 1
jeray2000 [983]

Jacksonian MIssionary: 1
Jopi [992]

Not Voted: 16

 
Not very happy that Eternaly Lost and Ironhide kept their votes on Avernite all day yesterday.

Yeah well I considered yesterday a dead day and didn't bother to check the thread up after throwing that vote up.

With as many wolves as we have left in this game, I am really not feeling like giving this my all either. It basically impossible to win for the village as we the minority right now, and the wolves are just deciding among them who going to win with us caught in the crossfire.

I think there a bit of a tendency to put too many baddies and roles in bigs, which reminded me why I stopped playing in the first place. Due to the huge mess of roles, it only really interesting if your on team evil, were team good needs to luck into their win. I really like to see a big that basically lite but with more players, maybe a game where we add just priest and cultists, but none of this here 36 traits that modify the game in various ways that either outright break things, or give you nothing to work with.

My so called 'flavoring' for this game is rather pointless. Restless is useless without information to pass on and without a scanning role there is no good way to get said information to do anything with it. There nothing I can do as a restless villager until I join a J-L, that I can't do as a normal villager anyway.
 
And if we proceed with this line of reasoning, that's a big assumption. If there weren't so many to start with, any estimates would be skewed. How confident are you that the set-up ratio is like that?
Not at all.
 
They're all in spoiler tags under the player list.
Thanks king.

I really want to revisit the Tamius case today, I think my points about him still stand and I'm glad others are coming around and agreeing with me. I'll come on with more thoughts a bit later before I have to head off to work.

Vote Tamius
 
Posted that too early by mistake. Here's the second part, admittedly not very long: Wagon was adamant about not having a TIE, possibly to save his packmate LatinKaiser. Plus from all y'all perspectives, even though I know I'm not a wolf, you don't and in fact apparently have me as a top wolf candidate, so Wagon could have been saving me.

Vote Wagonlitz

Wagonlitz bears a little suspicion for yesterday, but isn't the best choice.
I've done some reflecting, and yes, I think 17 starting baddies is certainly not possible, but 15 starting baddies is possible - if whoever the sorc is gets really lucky with scanning. Here's how it would work:

Assuming a 3 pack setup, a typical pack would probably have have the following:

3 wolves
1 cultist

That makes 3 packs of 12. A sorcerer would make 13, and a sorcs apprentice or an unattached cultist would make 14 or even 15 starting baddies. for a 36 player game

Now, If the sorc gets really lucky and picks up an apprentice or even 2 apprentices, that makes 14/15 baddies to start the game... 2 extras picked up over the course of the game would make that 16/17. Suddenly that ridiculously high number makes a bit more sense, setupwise - 14 (14 out of 36 equals 38%) or 15 starting baddies (15 out of 36 equals 42%). Bad luck (wolves only hitting each other for 1 hunt, an apprentice or 2 falling to the sorcerer, the cloaking incident losing the village a turn and two villagers) makes the rest possible.

That's the only way the numbers make sense. Or else wagon is either wrong about the numbers (I suppose that's a possibility, he did get the initial parity count wrong) or lying, but I don't see him having incentive to lie about that.

(I have no idea what a 4 pack setup would look like, but I suppose a 4 pack game is theoretically possible.)

If the initial estimate of baddies is wrong, plans based on that assumption are likely to hit an innocent villager just on the basis of following it.

However, if it's right (and I'm not especially convinced that it is), shouldn't it be easy to find a baddie almost by accident? Wouldn't it be easy to find one almost at random? That's my response to any strategy based on high starting ratio; if it's really like that, the job of finding them shouldn't be difficult statistically.

On Alxeu, who was he talking to and what was he doing that led to the shot? This doesn't appear to have been addressed so far.