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Rovsea

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I am available to sub.
 

EUROO7

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Sorry about the no vote. There is no excuse. I will make it up to you see
 

Jacksonian Missionary

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No one has the votes like Euro. Euro has the best votes. He's a good friend of mine and he would never do such an awful thing like miss a vote. That's a 'uge mistake only a person like Lyin' MC would do. Euro has the best and biggest votes.
 

Wagonlitz

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("We shouldn't be lynching random zombies, but we should lynch multiple zombies").
You are misconstruing what I said. I said that if we CAWZ then we need to not just lynch a single zombie.
I blame the DC metro system, which has neutered my ability to get anywhere on time and send nasty reminders to people that they need to do helpful things like vote.
It doesn't have wifi?
 
Sep 11, 2016
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Here is a cursory anlysis

Tornadoli was NOT just covering his woflieness: he was completely innocent. The last minute lynch against him was a serious mistake.

Wagonlitz been suspicious from the beginning due to unusual behavior in the sham vote and a total lack of game-related activity until he was called out for it shortly before the end of day 1. The man who brought the case against him initially, Rosvea, was killed that night. Day 2 Wagonlitz peddled several unconvincing and at one point downright inconsistant arguments ("We shouldn't be lynching random zombies, but we should lynch multiple zombies"). However, untill that point he had been arguing for several pages that we shouldn't just be executing zombies, and should focus on someone else. He than cast the deciding vote to kill Tornadoli, whose case consisted of a half hearted defense and notable inactivity. He also seems to be the only one online that still believes the case against Marshal was anything more than a clerical error.

Now I could be wrong: but things are starting to add up.


VOTE WAGONLITZ

I can feel this in my bones. It feels good.

It feels right.

VOTE WAGONLITZ
 

Rovsea

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At this point I would focus on people who have made "minimal contributions" simply because I know that often times wolves like to hang back and not get involved in the thread. They are often aided by the village focusing overmuch on the candidates that stand out; i.e., active players, as opposed to less active. So a lot of the time a more tentative wolf would post votes with a little justification or substance behind them, but contribute rarely to the thread outside of voting, and often have a reason that is either weak or overly qualified.

With that in mind I go looking for players that, off the top of my head, fit that description, those that are less active overall. These being: JCan, Spockyt, De Chatillon, Audren, Esemesas, EURO, and Duke Dan. I understand that some of these people may be active, but from my reading these folks seem to be less active than usual. Time to check that.

So I run through and see how many posts each has, and check what their votes look like as well:
JCan: 17 posts; Both of his vote posts lack substantive activity, and he overall is not the most active player, although he does have a few posts. His first vote is just a piggyback off of my initial vote on Tornadoli, and while we now know that Torn is the Valkyrie, we also know that I was a villager, and I was an early voter on Torn as well. His second vote he describes as a "lazy vote" (EDIT: I'm too lazy to rewrite this, but with the context of De Chat's vote I can now say with confidence that I misread this, and that JCan voted Ironhide because of Ironhide's lazy vote) but it was on ironhide, and it was a third vote, so we can pretty safely rule him out of the Olympus Pack until we get more information. Overall not the best vote because he helped lynch a red wolf.
Spockyt: 7 posts, not a good look; His first vote was day 1, just a more or less random vote on jehovah despite that fact that that's a Day 1 vote on a new player (generally frowned upon for courtesy reasons). His second vote is far more interesting. At a time that the vote count was
Unofficial Vote Count

IronhideG1: 5

De Chatillon (638)
aedan777 (647)
JCan (655)
ramius3443 (Duke Dan 637 -> 699)
johho888 (Gen. Marshall 729 -> ramius 730 -> 735)

Gen. Marshall: 3
esemesas (651)
Wagonlitz (691)
F72Voyager (695)

Tornadoli: 2
Madchemist (625)
Ironhide (633)

Duke Dan "the Man": 2
Borath the Undulator (610)
Health (714)

jeray2000: 1
Gen Marshall (589)

Wagonlitz: 1
Tornadoli (592)

Canadian_95_RTS: 1
jeray2000 (731)
he decides to vote Duke Dan to "make it more even". This is a little bit odd. first and foremost, he could have voted Gen. Marshall, and that would have evened things out without bringing in a third candidate, so if either of Gen. Marshall or Spockyt ends up wolf the other should be looked at. Secondly, we know that Ironhide was a wolf, so there is a vested interest for potential packmates to vote for another candidate to lessen the likelihood of Ironhide dying. The fact that he gives no reasoning as to why Dan in particular is voted (Torn also had 2 votes) does not enthuse me either. Definitely a good vote for today.
De Chatillon: 30 posts, not really inactive; Policy votes K-59 Day 1 because K-59 voted a newer player, I believe this was an earlier vote on K-59 as it directly quotes K-59's vote post (which later voters tend not to do as often), so I don't want to give him baddie points for that. His second vote is one oft eh first votes on Ironhide, calling out an incredibly lazy vote. of all the people who earned goodie points yesterday, he's probably at the top of the list. Not a good vote, and apparently my impression that he was quieter isn't totally accurate.
Audren: 22 posts, not an unreasonable number by any means; Voted Dan the Man for blatant RNG voting Day 1, not an unusual vote, and one I can believe from audren regardless of role. he argues against the K-59 lynch, not because he thinks that K-59 is a bad lynch, but because him jumping out to such a large lead so quickly allows wolf votes to hide. Minor goodie points for that, in my opinion. Day 2 is also interesting. He argues against the Marshall lynch definitively, and calls out Wagon for acting odd (I agree, although I haven't really looked in depth at wagon's posts yet) before voting Wagonlitz. I'm tempted to say this is a goodie move, but I'm going to call it null for now simply because he made no move to get involved with the main lynch besides renouncing Marshall as a candidate. Pretty neutral with minor goodie points for now. His posts that I've read seem mostly reasonable.
Esemesas: 8 posts, pretty inactive so far; Another Day 1 vote that's fairly normal, although it's on wagon so I'm tempted to give it goodie points, but honestly it doesn't tell us much yet. Day 2 vote seems to have some thought behind it, and he makes a move against Marshall, who was a contender during the day running in opposition to Ironhide, but I don't find esemesas' vote all that suspicious because it's asking questions and trying to pick apart inconsistencies. We also don't know Marshall's alignment yet, so despite the fact that it's a counter to the Ironhide effort, I'm going to give him minor goodie points simply for the way he went about voting Marshall. I'd call it good villager play. in regards to his few numbers of posts, it's entirely possible that he simply has little time to devote to werewolf; he has not played much recently.
EURO: 11 posts, drifting around near inactivity, aided and abetted by his no vote Day 2; I usually have a hard time reading EURO. His posts are his usual bashful tone, and just as direct as usual. He votes Marshall for joke claiming K-59 as his packmate (impossible), but that's not that unusual a day 1 vote. Did not vote day 2, which tells us about nothing. honestly, I've seen wolf EURO be abrasive and try and dominate the whole village, and I've also seen him less active, and it's really hard to get an accurate read on him without more information, which his general low activity and no vote don't help with. I can't really say one way or the other at this time, but he's not as suspicious as some of the others mentioned here.
Duke Dan: 3 posts, only one vote; his only vote was early day 1 and it was an RNG vote. No activity since then. I'm going to leave my opinion on voting inactives here, since there's nothing else about Dan to comment on. First and foremost, I'm going to assume that he's simply busy and that his inactivity isn't a reflection of role in any way. Secondly I'm going to say that we might as well TIE him up with somebody else and kill him. Inactives hurt the village in a number of ways. When you lynch active players instead of inactives analysis and content suffers; they also make for good places for wolves to hide; when a player subs into an inactive role they can do whatever they want with it, it allows a wolf a blank slate late in the game, potentially; they make the game less fun for everyone; and lastly they make for easy scapegoats for wolves later on in the game. Better to lynch inactive players early than late, in my opinion.

Taking all of the above into account, I will now render a short list of A.) Those I would not lynch, B.) Those I would lynch, and C.) Those I am indifferent towards.

Those to not lynch:
JCan and De Chat.

Those to lynch:
Spockyt and Duke Dan, with Spockyt taking priority.

Those I am indifferent towards:
Esemesas, EURO, and Audren, although I'm leaning a bit towards goodie for both Esemesas and Audren.

For now I will:

Vote Spockyt
 

Rovsea

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Also, please note that this is just my opinion on the selected players, there are others that I haven't talked about at all, simply because for right now i want to focus on the less active so it doesn't come back to bite us. That said, something definitely feels off about Wagon's play this game to me, and I commented as such earlier in my first life before I died. My opinion there has not changed in the least.
 

Rovsea

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I might have missed it, but the only explanation I have seen from him has been that he is busy. Which might well be true, but could also be a lie as baddies have used it to shield themselves previously.
Though MC is right that his accusations feel off.

You excused your switch as if you had slipped and voted somebody you wanted to live.
Also what actual cases are there? All I see is CAWZ and then the case on Torn which is half CAWZ half acting a bit differently.
The turn around from this in post 769 to
Why shouldn't we TIE deadweight if we go CAWZ? that way we take down more.

Anyway this should be a TIE
Unvote Marshall
Vote TOrn
This, just 9 posts and 15 minutes later is pretty glaring to me. If I wasn't voting Spockyt I'd be voting Wagonlitz right now. In fact, I feel more strongly about Wagon than I do about Spockyt right now.

Unvote Spockyt, Vote Wagonlitz
 

EUROO7

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No one has the votes like Euro. Euro has the best votes. He's a good friend of mine and he would never do such an awful thing like miss a vote. That's a 'uge mistake only a person like Lyin' MC would do. Euro has the best and biggest votes.
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