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Dude. Dude. You have been reading what I wrote today, have you? I had a list of suspects, and I prefered a lynch from that list. alxeu was not on it, actually alxeu even got some points for not wagoning Health. I liked MCs entrance to the thread today + a not outed MC by d3 speaks for him (even with seer dead a day ago, still two scans in). So there you have how my order came to life. And who knows if I would live enough to actually execute it later, I had to try it now, because I've never seen a successfull one. Chances looked decent here. Now go wagon me.
There's 10 players left; only one baddie (rovsea the sorc) has died so far.
Now, with 20 players, we don't really know what the setup is. We could have the usual 2 packs, (highly unlikely for there to be more), but I can easily imagine one pack of maybe 5 (maybe, maybe 4 if there are more unaligned), plus the sorc, and maybe a cultist or two to balance it out? If we have two packs, and assuming symmetry, they are highly likely to have 3 (which with the sorc, and maybe, maybe a cultist? would make 7-8 baddies [8 would be pushing it though]) Either way, if we apply the 1/3 starting baddied rule, we should look at 6 or 7 starting baddies.
That means, with only one baddie dead, it is likely that we have maybe 5 or 6 baddies left; out of 10, that unfortunately means that it is likely that the majority of us are baddies. Us goodies need to work together (I realise how wolfish this sounds, but it's true - packs will have exceptional block voting power at this point).
Say that we are in the 2 pack scenario, with 3 wolves each. If alxeu and npstr are packmates, npstr would have a very high incentive to save alxeu, especially this close to the end.
Why would a goodie alxeu shoot a random player? Sure, corman did some weird things, but he was far from a certain baddie. With so few players remaining, it just doesn't make sense to harm your own side this much.
Vote alxeu
I am sure that alxeu and npstr are packmates. Look how npstr is trying to pre-empt that obvious conclusion by making it look ridiculous:
Please, please, don't let them manipulate you.
Now, with 20 players, we don't really know what the setup is. We could have the usual 2 packs, (highly unlikely for there to be more), but I can easily imagine one pack of maybe 5 (maybe, maybe 4 if there are more unaligned), plus the sorc, and maybe a cultist or two to balance it out? If we have two packs, and assuming symmetry, they are highly likely to have 3 (which with the sorc, and maybe, maybe a cultist? would make 7-8 baddies [8 would be pushing it though]) Either way, if we apply the 1/3 starting baddied rule, we should look at 6 or 7 starting baddies.
That means, with only one baddie dead, it is likely that we have maybe 5 or 6 baddies left; out of 10, that unfortunately means that it is likely that the majority of us are baddies. Us goodies need to work together (I realise how wolfish this sounds, but it's true - packs will have exceptional block voting power at this point).
Say that we are in the 2 pack scenario, with 3 wolves each. If alxeu and npstr are packmates, npstr would have a very high incentive to save alxeu, especially this close to the end.
Why would a goodie alxeu shoot a random player? Sure, corman did some weird things, but he was far from a certain baddie. With so few players remaining, it just doesn't make sense to harm your own side this much.
Vote alxeu
I am sure that alxeu and npstr are packmates. Look how npstr is trying to pre-empt that obvious conclusion by making it look ridiculous:
Please, please, don't let them manipulate you.
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I agree, there's very little reason to interpret what just happened as anything but a wolfing fail. The only question is this; TIE or no?
Everyone aedan pushed/suspected (Health, Corman, Hazbot) is dead besides alxeu. Could be he scanned him as a cultist I guess, but he didn't seem to push him any harder than Health the day before. Hard to tell if he was leaving a hint there. Well I'll take it.
Vote alxeu
Vote Npstr
There is no other reason for the past event other than a wolfailure. I believe it is best to TIE the two.
There is no other reason for the past event other than a wolfailure. I believe it is best to TIE the two.
I came to just about the same conclusion as you Torn: the fact that there isn't that many players left, and far too little baddies have died. I figured the odds would be in favor of me hitting a baddie, especially if I hit someone suspicious to begin with.
I also figured I wouldn't live to get another chance with my assassin shot, given how everything has gone. Thought if I lived yesterday, I would probably die today.
The best strategy is probably to instead go after the people who were really pushing Corman and his potential connection with you.
Tonkatoy5 comes to mind.
Vote Tonkatoy5
Although I doubt anyone will listen.
Ok bruhv. I admit it. I was totally saving alxeu here. You know, we actually planned in wolfchat that while I'm saving him he also shoots randomly around. Oh and let's hunt aedan who was one of the major pushers on alxeu.
Am I really ranked that high in your book of stupid ww players? You seem to disregard me acting consistent with my reads yesterday. Now this by no means is something that should clear me - it merely explains things which you keep refusing to understand. You are like the only villagerey around here, because you've been under pressure and didn't go nuts with stupid things like you do as a baddie, and setting this up to frame me is beyond your capacity.
I don't know alxeus alignment and I agree we shall look into it.
@alxeu explain your shot.
emu'd
We should be careful with the lynch today. First two leaders were village, I'd wager the third one would be in baddie hands.
Not necessarily with the way voting was going, but my good friend npstr assured me that he wouldn't let a packmate down.
While I'm busy flaunting my wolfishness, I have to ask for a witch. I heard they like to help us wolves in times of our need. I'd very much appreciate if one would PM me.
By the way, you guys don't have to lynch me. The other pack will take care of that sooner rather than later, and if Tornadoli is right, you guys really wouldn't want a pack wiped out with the numbers as they are.
I don't have any more tricks up my sleeve, either, and npstr can't save me again, so I am dead when you guys want me gone. Whether you want that to be during a day or night phase is your choice.
Now come on. You know that isn't convincing enough. How else am I supposed to bring you down in flames with me?
Your reaction needs to be over the top.
Something along the lines of "Lies! All of it, lies!"
Or react in a completely normal, not suspicious at all way, but that would be boring.
Simply put, that reaction is not what we agreed to, and I am disappointed.
Neat. You are falling into my trap.
It involves snakes and lightening.
It also involves all my packmates suddenly coming to save me from death.