Was Stalin Planning An Offensive Before Barbarossa?

[ArmedNeutrality]

For the longest time I had thought that "yes he was" planning a massive juggernaut offensive and that Barbarossa was necessary to pre-empt this, but the more I study the more I realize that the Red Army of mid-1941 was pathetic and in a state of total lack of preparations, it had scant few T-34s, almost all of its tanks were light models and obsolete, many of its divisions were not even at 50% of authorized strength, and they showed an incredible tolerance for German reconnaissance flights violating their borders [which if planning a massive offensive you might take a very dim view of letting the intended target observe and photograph your preparations].

I am open to the possibility that Stalin might have been considering an offensive/war for the future, sometime between 1942-1943, but I am not even sure of this possibility.


Thoughts on the "Soviet offensive plans" controversy?

 

[Klausewitz]

Probably.

Elaboration:
Despite 'Socialism in one country' Soviet Russia still very much held to the idea that logically socialism would, must and should expand to cover the whole world.
Sitting door to door with Germany that had fallen to the fascists and the importance of Germany in terms of socialism, European politcs, etc. would make it appear likely that at some point the Soviet Union might very well take offensive action.
Also considering the focus of Soviet doctrine (which was offensive not defensive in nature) and their actions re:finland, i think that is a sustainable thesis.
I would not dream of providing a window of opportunity for that though.

 

[ArmedNeutrality]

Probably.

Elaboration:
Despite 'Socialism in one country' Soviet Russia still very much held to the idea that logically socialism would, must and should expand to cover the whole world.
Sitting door to door with Germany that had fallen to the fascists and the importance of Germany in terms of socialism, European politcs, etc. would make it appear likely that at some point the Soviet Union might very well take offensive action.
Also considering the focus of Soviet doctrine (which was offensive not defensive in nature) and their actions re:finland, i think that is a sustainable thesis.
I would not dream of providing a window of opportunity for that though.

I think Stalin and Hitler were sizing each other up and both were wondering if the other would strike first, neither knew when the other might strike, but they both probably figured war was inevitable.

 

[Klausewitz]

I think Stalin and Hitler were sizing each other up and both were wondering if the other would strike first, neither knew when the other might strike, but they both probably figured war was inevitable.

Well, wasn't it?

 

[ArmedNeutrality]

Well, wasn't it?

I think solid diplomacy could possibly have prevented the war, and if the Germans had worked harder to embrace the Soviets, finding some way to bring them into the Axis... But the Soviets would have to abandon their ambitions in southern Europe viz a viz Romania, Bulgaria, etc. The Soviets would have to be content to look to Central Asia instead.

 

[Klausewitz]

Fascists hate communist and use their name as a slur.
Same the other way around.

 

[ArmedNeutrality]

Fascists hate communist and use their name as a slur.
Same the other way around.

Authoritarians often have an easy time getting along with each other.

A friend of mine once answered my question, "how and why did so many German communists and Italian socialists and communists wind up becoming Nazis and Fascists?" He explained, "it is fairly easy to move back and forth from the one extreme authoritarian ideology to another, it is easier for a socialist such as Mussolini to become the founder of Fascism than for him to become a parliamentarian supporting liberal democracy."

He agreed with my assessment that many of the early fascists were disgruntled socialists who were dissatisfied with one particular aspect of socialist doctrine or another.

I don't believe it is a stretch to say that fascism is an outgrowth of socialism and that fascism has some common lineage with socialism via Sorelian syndicalism.

 

[Klausewitz]

Your friend completly ignored the reason why those people were communists or fascists in the first place.
But those reason, namely the huge number of mentally and socially displaced soldiers due to WW1, did not apply to the leaders.
Sure you have a lot of Mitläufer in the basement and among the workforce but in upper managment people tend to be a) more commited and b) less flexible.

 

[Cavalry]

I think solid diplomacy could possibly have prevented the war, and if the Germans had worked harder to embrace the Soviets, finding some way to bring them into the Axis... But the Soviets would have to abandon their ambitions in southern Europe viz a viz Romania, Bulgaria, etc. The Soviets would have to be content to look to Central Asia instead.

Well Stalin wouldn't believe in a piece of paper! No one should be after the seize of Czechoslovakia in 15 Mar 1939. At that time Soviet actively seek for an alliance with British and France for their own security.
War with Soviet is in Hitler's "Mein Kampf" book since 1924 "If we speak of soil in Europe today, we can primarily have in mind only Russia and her vassal border states".
The whole propaganda of Nazi is on "anti communism". Where is the capital of communism?

The Tripartite Pact, the true military alliance of the Axis was signed on 27 Sept 1940. Soviet was not invited.
In 1939 Soviet was running for safety. Japanese already attacked and Germany touch his border. Some "ambition" is limited in the previous Russia border. War with Finland could have been avoided, the Soviet land exchange offer to the Finn before the war was very fair.

But sure Stalin cannot sit by the Nazi forever. He will start offensive after he secure alliance with the British and USA and when he is sure the chance of success.

 

[Culise]

I'd argue that, while Stalin may or may not have invaded the Germans at some point, the USSR was unlikely to be actually planning any anti-German offensive before Barbarossa in any sort of thorough manner. At the very most, it might have been some plan akin to the American War Plan Red in some filing cabinet in the Red Army's headquarters in Moscow. If nothing else, it would not have come before the completion of the border fortifications along the new Soviet-German border and the completion of the massive reorganization of the Red Army that had been undertaken since the conclusion of the Winter War. Honestly, I doubt he would have invaded unless the Germans were significantly weakened (say, atom bombs on Berlin and other key cities, combined with - and I stress its unlikely nature - Allied forces landing in France or moving up Italy successfully) in many ways. Stalin, unlike certain more internationally-minded compatriots and enemies (Trotsky, for instance), was much more pragmatic in his outlook. Brutal and selfish, but also pragmatic. If he invaded the Germans, he knew full well he would be taking the brunt of the fighting against a war machine that had already defeated the two greatest Interbellum armies of Europe (France and Poland). He would, I suspect, take the safe bet and quietly continue to supply the Germans with raw goods in exchange for building up his industry and military with German help, pursuant to the various commercial agreements undertaken between 1939 and 1941. After all, as Stalin reasoned, it would be safe enough to supply these goods and mutually beneficial, besides; what sort of madmen would invade a country actively supplying them with food, rubber, oil, and other key goods while embroiled in a war on a different front?

 

[Anatur]

Stalin had several objective's in 1941:

1.Let the Allies and Axis butcher each other to a state of helplessness.

2.Restructure the Red Army after the abysmal performance in the Winter War.

3.Make sure he isnt dragged into WW2 before the two previous points are realized.

At the time of Barbarossa the German's owned all of continental Europe apart from Switzerland,Iberia,Sweden and the USSR.
All the reserve's they had combined with the armies of Hungary,Romania,Bulgaria,italy and their puppets in Yugoslavia were at their disposal.
Why would Stalin start a war under such conditions with an army he knowns isnt in top shape and with there being every possibility the Allies just let him bleed against Germany and then landing in the last second to steal Europe from him.

The intention for maintaining a peace for as long as possible extended to Soviet border force's having direct order's to not return fire in case of German provocation,something that screwed over many of them during Barbarossa.

You have to keep in mind that Stalin never intended for Hitler to overrun Europe.

Stalin thought,quite logically,that it would just be a rerun of WW1.

France and Britain were powerfull,Germany had failed this routine once before,and this time it didnt even have strong allies like Austria-Hungary or the Ottoderp Empire.

When Europe got rekt Stalin suddenly went from "patient preparation" mode to "buy time at any cost or we are screwed" mode.

 

[Eusebio]

For the longest time I had thought that "yes he was" planning a massive juggernaut offensive and that Barbarossa was necessary to pre-empt this,

Is a conspiracy theory/Nazi apologetics without a shred of historical evidence.

On the question of whether Stalin would have invaded Germany in 42 or 43: I find it doubtful without the WAllies having opened a front on the continent. The USSR was resource rich and had no need of starting a risky armed conflict with a powerful neighbour, especially when in Stalin's mind there was every possibility that Britain would encourage Russia to attack Germany and then sit the war out (this is what he was paranoid of happening until D-Day in OTL).

 

[Anatur]

Is a conspiracy theory/Nazi apologetics without a shred of historical evidence.

On the question of whether Stalin would have invaded Germany in 42 or 43: I find it doubtful without the WAllies having opened a front on the continent. The USSR was resource rich and had no need of starting a risky armed conflict with a powerful neighbour.

I imagine they would happily sweep across the border's the moment the Allies were advancing on the Rhineland and there was no possibility of the Eastern Axis resisting in any effective manner.

It happened in Poland in the exact same way,the Polish army was outright destroyed by the Wehrmacht when the USSR finally moved in.

 

[CruelDwarf]

I am open to the possibility that Stalin might have been considering an offensive/war for the future, sometime between 1942-1943, but I am not even sure of this possibility.

Completion of the 'Molotov' fortified line alongside new border was planned on the late 1942 - early 1943. You do not waste resources on fortifications if you do not plan to use them. Fortified lines are really expensive.

Red Army rearmament would take full 1942 at least because T-34 (and KV too) in its 1940 form was been already considered obsolete and preparations to phase it out of production were underway. So Soviet industry would have to saturate the military with new T-34M medium tanks, KV-3 (or maybe even KV-4/KV-5) heavy tanks and T-50 light tanks. It would take at least a year or maybe two.

Situation with aviation and Navy was similar too but it kinda outside my area of expertise so. So I personally do not see any kind of aggressive move until 1944 at least. And for sure no attacks on Germany without coordination with US and Britain first. There was simply not much to gain in USSR by wasting men and resources on beating Germany.

 

[Klausewitz]

Fortified lines are really expensive.

That depends.
First on the level of fortification; bunkers are relativly cheap, retractable gun positions are quite expensive.
Second, for the economy of the soviet union, on whether or not they need to import stuff to do it.
Also @ You only make them if you use them:
Westwall.

 

[Cavalry]

I imagine they would happily sweep across the border's the moment the Allies were advancing on the Rhineland and there was no possibility of the Eastern Axis resisting in any effective manner.

It happened in Poland in the exact same way,the Polish army was outright destroyed by the Wehrmacht when the USSR finally moved in.

Logical way both side British/US and Soviet will seek to make deal together and Stalin will secure his share before doing his part. On the other hand he cannot risk doing nothing and wait for the West to win against Germany after the fall of France. There is already a case, Soviet declare war to Japan after secure the deals. Of course the West made sure Stalin cannot wait until the fall of Tokyo to walk in, he have to declare war in 3 month after the fall of Germany!

Poland is another matter, Stalin need to make sure German capture Warsaw before come in to avoid looking like an aggressor. He will not come too early not too late or German do damage to the eastern land. If Poland can hold against Hitler, he will not come in!

 

[CruelDwarf]

That depends.
Also @ You only make them if you use them:
Westwall.

Why do you think Germans had the ability to concentrate on Poland while leaving only 20 divisions to cover the Western border.

Second, for the economy of the soviet union, on whether or not they need to import stuff to do it.

Sorry but this make no sense at all. Soviet Union was not able to conjure construction equipment, concrete and manpower for the works out of a thin air.

 

[DoomBunny]

As far as I'm aware, there has never been any credible argument made that Stalin was planning such a move. Such hypothesis have tended towards conjecture or post-fact conclusions (linking later Russian expansion to Stalin's policies).

That being said, it's not something I've read as much on as other things.

 

[Anatur]

Sorry but this make no sense at all. Soviet Union was not able to conjure construction equipment, concrete and manpower for the works out of a thin air.

In terms of manpower and raw materials the USSR was fairly covered,its surprisingly cheap to build stuff when you dont have to pay people or care about their opinion,you only pay them what you would pay if you kept them in a cell.

As for construction equipment,not much was neccessary and what little was for such projects could quite easily be made.

To build some basic fortifications you only need a lot of manpower and some semi-competent engineer's.

 

[Kovax]

In my opinion, Stalin would at some point have invaded Germany if Germany didn't attack first, but that probably wouldn't have happened until 1943-45. In essence, Germany was receiving raw materials to build up its war machine in the short term. Russia was receiving machinery and tooling from Germany to build up its industry, in order to build up its military in the longer term. Stalin gave Hitler what he needed to defeat France in '40, in exchange for what was needed to defeat Germany in the mid/late '40s. The longer Stalin waited, the better his chances.

There are a few pieces of "evidence" that point to a potential attack in '41 or '42, such as troop redeployments to the front, the relative abandonment of a defensive line further back in favor of more forward positions, etc., but much of that can be attributed to the acquisition of half of Poland. The border moved, so the troops moved up, and the fortifications and rail improvements well behind the original border became less relevant than those closer to it.