What about the dutch, belgian, danish, swedish, and norwegian navies? Since Germany has a national focus to befriend all of these would it be possible to bring them all together to contest the channel?
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Was Sea Lion possible?
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They're not really big enough to make a difference. Of the ones you've listed, Sweden was the only navy with a force large enough to likely make any difference at all, and not enough to tip the scales. Even Spain's navy wouldn't be a huge concern. France, Italy and Japan (or the US, if you can swing it) are the places to look.
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Well, air supremacy is a given. Who invades across the English Channel without air supremacy?
William the Conqueror
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Ok, I'll remember that for my germany and friends play-through.
Also apparently Ok isn't recognized as a word?
We had much better relations with France than really any other country (and especially better than with Britain) up until De Gaulle came along. If we didn't declare war when France was invaded, we wouldn't if Britain was invaded. At least not for a while.
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Well I tried looking up some alternate history scenario where Germany did sea lion and what would the U.S do..but it linked me to these forums so not exactly a problem solved. I guess I'll have to go with what you said.
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Well as with any alternate history you can't know exactly what would happen (change one thing and everything changes. Ripple effect and all that). So I'm just saying that we probably would not have gotten involved.
I can. Kerch landings were a success. Soviets lost in the end, after half a year but only when German diverted two corps to fight them. And they had no support, as STAVKA ordered all ships to stay in ports in the fear of the Luftwaffe.
Could the Sea Lion work? With the state Germany was in the July 1940 and the attack planned on September 1940? Yes, it could, with no naval superiority. The first wave could go in by sea as it would be a surprise. The war game conducted in 1974 pointed that out. Logistics were the problem later. But here we come to a forgotten thing - the Demyansk pocket. There, a Luftwaffe supplied successfully 100.000 men, brought in replacement troops of 31.000 men and evacuated 36.000 wounded. And 100.000 men is all that Sea Lion needed as GB had next to no heavy weapons. There are reports of coast lines defended by a single old gun on 2km line. Almost all that GB had, and did not send to Africa, was left in Dunkirk. So a few Panzer Divisios with support infantry divisions of crack troops would do a nice job (or a terrible job if you were British).
But the problem would be RAF. And that could have been dealt with had Germany focused on the airports. You can build up as much airplanes as you wish, if they do not have an airfield with a good airstrip - they are useless. So bombing of the runways and radar stations would ground most of the RAF that would have to use northern air bases. But by that their tactics of flying only when a bomber raid is coming is useless as they would not have enough time to respond and an overall effectiveness would drop. And any pilot shot down would fall into the German controlled land bellow them, thus eliminating other bonus that RAF had.
With all that, Germany might put enough pressure to the GB in order for them to plea for truce. But Germans could not take all of the GB with 100.000 men. After all, they had against them around 300.000 British troops (with no heavy weapons, but troops non the less) and the rest were just raw recruits while German training, morale and equipment were top at the time.
That move would likely draw USA into the war early. If not officially, then most likely a lot of heavy weapons and volunteer troops.
But yes, Sea Lion was possible without naval superiority if the force was around 100.000 men, as proven by Demyans pocket. For anything more, Germany could use its submarines to supply a few extra divisions (a German infantry division at the time needed from 200 to 300 tons of supplies per day of heavy fighting and a single Deutschland class sub had a capacity of 700 tons of cargo (new ones could carry more) - the RN could not respond as they only went in if they knew that a surface fleet is coming. They never patrol the strait 24/7 so a submarine could sneak no problem - they did the whole war, all the time). As for the dock (if Germans could not secure a harbor in time), the Krupp made them and tested them and those could go with the first surprise wave.
So logistics was covered even for a larger army. The main problem was RAF and had Germans been smarter (Hitler) they could make RAF ineffective, even if they did not destroy it. Because the supply by air and the supply by the subs was no possible if the RAF ruled the skies.
To summarize,
the landings without the navy support - Kerch landings - success
supply of a 100.000 army by air - Demyansk pocket - success
supply by subs - Germans did it before - success
initial surprise attack - Sea Lion war game did it in 1974 when 90.000 troops landed in the first wave - success
air battle - the only thing Germans might have a problem with but it is open for a debate. A smart strategy with the combined production power of the conquered Europe, my thought is that they might pulled it off.
But there are a few problems - USA joining in earlier, Germany's lack of will (Hitler never wanted to conquer GB, there is no proof of that but there is every proof to the contrary) and most of all, Stalin! He waited for a time when the Germans and Allies would bog down in a fight so that he could strike at their backs. And at the time Balkan was not yet in the Axis and would most likely stay out of it so Germany would face a two front war, one being on an island. So even if they did manage to push GB for peace, they might have lost the war earlier.
Those are my thoughts. The biggest problem of the operation would be logistics but as proven by other operations before and after, that too would not be a problem if the RAF is dealt with. Absolutely no need for naval domination if the Luftwaffe could supply a 100.000 strong army (that included tank divisions) and the single submarine could support a whole division for a day (and Germany had from 20 to 40 subs at sea at all times during that time).
But as this is a Holy Grail of NO when it comes to the WWII discussion, I am sure that all the successful operations would be thrown out of the window and good ol' they-didnt-have-naval-superiority card will be played even it was proven that an army did not need it. Well, enjoy in that thought.
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Well, Germans had entrenched Wehrmacht in 1944 so all those things were essential to the Allies. On the other hand, GB did not have an entrenched Wehrmacht in 1940 and had Dunkirk failed, it would have next to no army at all as BEF was at the time the only trained and equipped army left able to fight with the Germans. Home Guard would do as much as Volkssturm did in 1944-45... nothing.
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No. You are not aware of several facts of Dunkirk/Dynamo and the German military actions. During the Operatioin Dynamo (feel free to do research here for details) the weather was the biggest point against the Luftwaffe. Their pilots were exhausted after two weeks of heavy fighting. There was thick smoke, fog and rain. Absolutely desastrous weather for any bomberpilot. And even under all the other conditions, like you might (get to) know, the British lost a third of their ships. Even during the bad weather the losses were so high that Royal Navy retreated their modern destroyers.
And again, in all your comments, you are still talking about the historical facts. That has never been the point: "Royal Navy strength in an invasion scenario." That's the mindgame. So no driving by and sinking river barges. If you can't or do not want to imagine such a scenario, there is no need continue here. No offense. I'm not angry or anything, it's just that we are talking about totally different things.
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strange is it not, my thread and pictures about allies working togeather in the Normandy invasion has not had half the comments this tread has had
Hi,
Yes I know about the weather and you are right this made a difference. I think we can agree to disagree
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This is getting in to some serious “what if” territory.
Let's see now...
I wasn’t talking about the seaplanes at Pembroke. I was talking about the massive seaplane facility (the largest in the world at the time) and using it to base some Hurricanes to keep the Luftwaffe of the big ships. They’re out of range of their own fighter cover so.. easy meat.
Bringing the Yamato over from Japan (it’s a loooonng way but yeah) to help the Bismarck out taking on the RN.
Just two teeny tiny problems with that. If you wait for Bismarck to be finished, it’s already too late to launch Sealion in 1940. If you wait for Yamato to be finished, we’re talking about a Sealion in 1942.
No. The "Go home Sealion, you're drunk" faction has already demonstrated that there were, at least, eight fully equipped infantry divisions, the British 1st Armoured division and a fairly large number of independent batalions. There were also several mechanised brigades consisting of large numbers of Bren Carriers armed with mortars, 2pdr AT guns, Boyes AT rifles and, of course, bren guns.
Yeah, this is good.
For those of you who haven't followed the link in my first post in this thread. The vast majority of the invasion forces were to be embarked in river barges.
Horse-drawn river barges. To their credit, the German commanders did in fact, arrange for about 4,000 horses to be included in the first wave.
No Axe. The submarines couldn't operate in the English Channel because the whole thing had been mined (tether-mines) to prevent submarines entering. The first three U-boats to try it never reported back.
And, of course, a destroyer on the surface can't tell the difference between a U-boat and a U-Class. So it wouldn't be very smart of the Brit' sub' commander to get himself underneath 100 angry destroyers.
The Brit' sub's would be deployed in the North Sea, waiting for Bismarck, and the larger ones would be in and around the Bay of Biscay, supported by aircraft carriers.
Incidentally, considering the vulnerability of low-freeboard barges to swamping, I would also have my destroyers launching depth-charges in all directions as they tear past them.
Yeah, I now. I'm a bad man because that would scare the poor horses.
Yeah... Cerberus... Not exactly our finest hour.
There is, however, a HUGE difference between three very fast (30kts+) warships tearing along the English Chanel under conditions of surprise in February and...
Three thousand river barges, that have been watched & waited for, (and variously bombed by the RAF & shelled by the RN) for weeks being towed across the English Chanel, at about 3kts in Summer.
And it's not like Scharnhorst & her buddies weren't being watched. The Germans pulled some clever tricks and got lucky by slipping their moorings just as the sub that was waiting for them snuck-away to recharge.
Let's see now...
I wasn’t talking about the seaplanes at Pembroke. I was talking about the massive seaplane facility (the largest in the world at the time) and using it to base some Hurricanes to keep the Luftwaffe of the big ships. They’re out of range of their own fighter cover so.. easy meat.
Bringing the Yamato over from Japan (it’s a loooonng way but yeah) to help the Bismarck out taking on the RN.
Just two teeny tiny problems with that. If you wait for Bismarck to be finished, it’s already too late to launch Sealion in 1940. If you wait for Yamato to be finished, we’re talking about a Sealion in 1942.
No. The "Go home Sealion, you're drunk" faction has already demonstrated that there were, at least, eight fully equipped infantry divisions, the British 1st Armoured division and a fairly large number of independent batalions. There were also several mechanised brigades consisting of large numbers of Bren Carriers armed with mortars, 2pdr AT guns, Boyes AT rifles and, of course, bren guns.
Yeah, this is good.
For those of you who haven't followed the link in my first post in this thread. The vast majority of the invasion forces were to be embarked in river barges.
Horse-drawn river barges. To their credit, the German commanders did in fact, arrange for about 4,000 horses to be included in the first wave.
No Axe. The submarines couldn't operate in the English Channel because the whole thing had been mined (tether-mines) to prevent submarines entering. The first three U-boats to try it never reported back.
And, of course, a destroyer on the surface can't tell the difference between a U-boat and a U-Class. So it wouldn't be very smart of the Brit' sub' commander to get himself underneath 100 angry destroyers.
The Brit' sub's would be deployed in the North Sea, waiting for Bismarck, and the larger ones would be in and around the Bay of Biscay, supported by aircraft carriers.
Incidentally, considering the vulnerability of low-freeboard barges to swamping, I would also have my destroyers launching depth-charges in all directions as they tear past them.
Yeah, I now. I'm a bad man because that would scare the poor horses.
Yeah... Cerberus... Not exactly our finest hour.
There is, however, a HUGE difference between three very fast (30kts+) warships tearing along the English Chanel under conditions of surprise in February and...
Three thousand river barges, that have been watched & waited for, (and variously bombed by the RAF & shelled by the RN) for weeks being towed across the English Chanel, at about 3kts in Summer.
And it's not like Scharnhorst & her buddies weren't being watched. The Germans pulled some clever tricks and got lucky by slipping their moorings just as the sub that was waiting for them snuck-away to recharge.
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strange is it not, my thread and pictures about allies working togeather in the Normandy invasion has not had half the comments this tread has had
Not strange really. A little sad perhaps but I think the reason is that there's nowhere near the level of contention.
I'm pretty sure we all want to be able to cooperate with our allies, especially if they are AI allies, during D-Day.
Whereas... Sealion! Of course they could!
Oh no they couldn't...
Oh yes they could!
Oh NO! they...
etc.
Hi,
Yes I know about the weather and you are right this made a difference. I think we can agree to disagree
@kelestra
I think the Luftwaffe's lack of torpedoes and inability to hit a moving target made more of a difference
Personally, I think that if there had been a Sealion Movie like Tora Tora Tora, 633 Squadron and many of the other old greats.
It would have stared people like Sid James, Kenneth Williams, Charles Hawtrey, Michael Bentine, Harry Secombe (Churchill?) and, of course, Barbara Windsor.
Carry On Across The Chanel anybody?
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Cheers for the insight as always, and apologies for my uninformed ramblings
. In terms of those mines (which I totally forgot about, because I'm dopey), would they have had an impact on the capacity of Secret Master's hypothetical combined Axis taskforce, or the RN swinging in to have a go at the invasion force?
The more I read, the more I realise that a lot of the counterfactual invasions people like to talk about - whether the German invasion of Britain or Japanese invasions of Hawaii or Australia - couldn't have happened under anything like historic conditions. (And most of the Eastern Front battles Germany lost were faits accomplis too.)
Unless you are running a sortie to just sucker out the RN so you can fight them.
The opposite of Cerebrus is a possibility: the Royal Navy gets so used to playing tag with the Axis in the North Sea or off the coast of France that they never know when or if the invasion is happening. But if enough Axis naval assets are at sea, they have no choice but to go out and fight.
Unless the RN just sits back and lets the invasion force land and then tries to interdict. But then we are a situation where even partial failure to interdict the invasion could be really bad given British assets in England under the scenario I postulated. How badly would the morale of the British troops be affected by the Royal Navy just letting the Axis land assets while the Luftwaffe controls the skies?
Well, air supremacy is a given. Who invades across the English Channel without air supremacy?
But your point about daylight is a valid concern. I'm not sure the Germans, even with nice transports, have the expertise to pull of Sea Lion effectively in terms of training and doctrines.
The Normans