Was Operation Typhoon Winnable?

[bz249]

I mean even about Typhoon he saw the big picture better than his Generals. (Though diverting and not resting the Panzer armies was a mistake)
- In their october state they are unfit for the mission. (He was nevertheless talked into)
- In december the job is to hold the fucking shield to cover the guy in your right, because this is what the Ostheer capable of given the supply/manpower situation... Give the initiative the local commanders to do something they will withdraw and endanger the others

 

[Jos de trol]

I can figure yes. My concern are people who call him dumb, incompetent or both.
I consider this man dangerously smart and competent. (till 1943 or so)

I wouldn't consider him all that smart. Smart enough sure but mostly he was extraordinarily competent in appealing to and manipulating people. That coupled with a romantic belief in self-omnipotence got him smart people under him and financing him and that is how he got in his position in spite of being neither very smart nor very rich himself.

Ironically and unfortunately for the the world the very specific talents that set him up for his success are also what inevitably doomed him to catastrophic failure. This happens a lot and will happen again.

 

[Jos de trol]

I went to Paris and I saw Napoleon's tomb. And around it, you see Napoleon's accomplishments: The metric system, the establishment of equal law, internal improvements... And yes, all those things had a lasting, positive legacy for the country. He even made Jews equal citizens.

Despite all of Napoleon's many faults, France was a better country afterwards.... Heck the whole of Europe was better afterwards. Alas for his enormities and his senseless desire for more war.

You can't say anything close to the same for der Fuhrer

Most if not all of these things were decided upon and being prepared under the directorate and just came to fruition under Napoleon. And since they were objectively good things neighboring countries would probably have voluntarily adopted these things after noticing they were objectively good things. But kudos to Napoleon for not cancelling what was in the pipeline and for spreading it by force quickly I guess.

A lot of what is attributed to individual leaders was actually just rubberstamped by them and not even their idea, but then as a leader you have a lot of discretionary power to screw up something good so I consider not actively screwing things up one of the greatest achievements a leader can aspire to.

 

[gagenater]

Most if not all of these things were decided upon and being prepared under the directorate and just came to fruition under Napoleon. And since they were objectively good things neighboring countries would probably have voluntarily adopted these things after noticing they were objectively good things. But kudos to Napoleon for not cancelling what was in the pipeline and for spreading it by force quickly I guess.

A lot of what is attributed to individual leaders was actually just rubberstamped by them and not even their idea, but then as a leader you have a lot of discretionary power to screw up something good so I consider not actively screwing things up one of the greatest achievements a leader can aspire to.

The same is true of Alexander the great - the military, state organization and generals he conquered the known world with all came from his father, Philip of Macedon. Just like Napoleon, he messed up a lot of things with his conquest boner, but he had the good fortune not to screw up extra stuff in the meantime.

 

[Kovax]

The same is true of Alexander the great - the military, state organization and generals he conquered the known world with all came from his father, Philip of Macedon. Just like Napoleon, he messed up a lot of things with his conquest boner, but he had the good fortune not to screw up extra stuff in the meantime.

"Hey dad, can I borrow the keys to the ca....., I mean the phalanx?" When the "old man" passed away (under questionable circumstances), the kid got to take the phalanx out for a spin. Philip (or his subordinates) developed all of the new fighting techniques and equipment, and the kid (or his advisors/generals) just happened to be good at running it.

As with any of the historical kings of antiquity, the king got credit for anything that his subjects did, so Alexander may NOT have been particularly brilliant himself, if he was just following the advice of an exceptionally brilliant advisor, but he personally got all the credit. The history books, written somewhat later, may not be entirely accurate in that respect.

Likewise, responsibility for events on the Eastern Front in WWII is somewhat clouded, and Hitler takes both credit and blame for a few things he himself didn't actually do, along with those where the credit or blame is accurately dumped in his lap.

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

"Hey dad, can I borrow the keys to the ca....., I mean the phalanx?" When the "old man" passed away (under questionable circumstances), the kid got to take the phalanx out for a spin. Philip (or his subordinates) developed all of the new fighting techniques and equipment, and the kid (or his advisors/generals) just happened to be good at running it.

As with any of the historical kings of antiquity, the king got credit for anything that his subjects did, so Alexander may NOT have been particularly brilliant himself, if he was just following the advice of an exceptionally brilliant advisor, but he personally got all the credit. The history books, written somewhat later, may not be entirely accurate in that respect.

Likewise, responsibility for events on the Eastern Front in WWII is somewhat clouded, and Hitler takes both credit and blame for a few things he himself didn't actually do, along with those where the credit or blame is accurately dumped in his lap.

It is very easy to isolate specific events for which Hitler gets the credit or the blame that are actually beyond his control.

But, rewriting history to create a speculative assumption, then projecting that assumption onto a figure 2,200 years in the future, may NOT be the most logical way to present the argument.

William Wallace MAY have actually been loyal to the English Crown, historians did not properly understand his motivations because Robert the Bruce re-wrote history to create a martyr to his cause; Likewise, George Washington MAY have been a Tory at heart because he showed up to the Continental Congress wearing a British uniform.

 

[Fanstar1]

The Napoleonic wars killed 3.5 - 6 million people out of a world population of a billion - about 0.47% if the world population if you use the average
WWII killed 60-70 million people in the European theater alone, out of a world population of 2.3 billion - about 2.8% of the world population if you use the average.

Hitler killed 10-20 times as many people as Napoleon did, and porportionate to world population STILL killed 5-6 times more people.

The end product of Napoleon's empire after it'/s brief establishment and fall was a bunch of new countries, and a bunch of new legal systems.
Hitler never succeeded in establishing his empire, even briefly, but in the parts he had control of the longest, and most completely, the death toll was the highest, because the primary objective of his conquests was to kill the people inhabiting it. Not only was Hitler a mass murderer in ways that Napoleon never even dreamed of, but his intention was to kill many many many more people than he did - perhaps another 100 - 150 million or so.

where did you get 60-70 million in Europe? over 30 million died, but 60-70 million seems a stretch

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

where did you get 60-70 million in Europe? over 30 million died, but 60-70 million seems a stretch

60-70 million is the ballpark figure for deaths around the world during the events surrounding WWII, this number includes China and Japan.

 

[Kovax]

60-70 million is the ballpark figure for deaths around the world during the events surrounding WWII, this number includes China and Japan.

Does that figure include death due to "natural causes"? I'm not entirely sure that Hitler can be blamed for all of those....some: quite possibly.

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

Does that figure include death due to "natural causes"? I'm not entirely sure that Hitler can be blamed for all of those....some: quite possibly.

That is the number google puts up as the ballpark estimate for all deaths caused by action in all theatres during WWII.

But, yeah, I'm on your side. Hitler may have been allied with Japan, but I can't lay the Rape of Nanking at Adolph's doorstep.

 

[gagenater]

where did you get 60-70 million in Europe? over 30 million died, but 60-70 million seems a stretch

It's probably more like 40-60 for Europe with another 15-25 for Asia (Germany doesn't really have anything to do with those #'s. When I qouted the #s, I thought it was ETO only - I can go back and edit my post, but it didn't seem very useful, because it doesn't really change the takeway message: Hitler killed a lot more people than Napoleon - in straight #'s, in percentages, and in intentions - Hitler intended to kill a LOT more people than he did. Only the end of Nazi Germany by war prevented him from succeeded.

 

[Zebedee]

But the bottom line is that the Nazi war machine was not built on luck and hard work (but by planning and strategic thought); and it was not brought down by lack of strategic thought and over extending itself (but by planning and strategic thought by its enemies).

Hope you're well @Easy-Kill.

Just wanted to expand on this point you make. Frieser's Blitzkrieg Legend offers some military insights into this conundrum, and it meshes well with Tooze's focus on the factors driving the Third Reich's higher level decision making. Frieser's argument is that Hitler thought he had found an operational quickfix to strategic problems. This both drove the victory in France and drove defeat in the SU. Again, it's moving well beyond cartoon caricatures but you've an economy running into large difficulties which needs the SU's resources (human and otherwise) and has a leader willing to roll the dice because, after the Fall of France, he's convinced he's got the tools to get the job done in a summer's campaigning. It's faulty logic which ran down the entire German command structure, but it wasn't irrational. Harrison's work on the SU is fascinating, and he suggests that the question shouldn't be predicated on 'how the Third Reich failed' but on 'how on earth did the SU survive 1941 as a functioning state?'. And that leads us back to your point there - external factors are important. Regardless of how the likes of Mannstein and Speer wrote it up post-war.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

I can't lay the Rape of Nanking at Adolph's doorstep.

Actually the opposite. The Nazis saved countless lives there.

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

Actually the opposite. The Nazis saved countless lives there.

I had to look that up.

Interesting. 'A' Nazi did indeed help save an untold number of lives, and true to form, 'The' Nazis had him spend some time chatting with the Gestapo upon returning home discussing ways to NOT to spread the story around.

But, definitely, John Rabe is now in my Oskar Schindler pile of good Nazis.

Thanks, Graf.

 

[Graf Zeppelin]

I had to look that up.

Interesting. 'A' Nazi did indeed help save an untold number of lives, and true to form, 'The' Nazis had him spend some time chatting with the Gestapo upon returning home discussing ways to NOT to spread the story around.

But, definitely, John Rabe is now in my Oskar Schindler pile of good Nazis.

Thanks, Graf.

Have you read the whole story ?
Rabe and his family were living in poverty after the war and the citizens of Nanjing were sending them care packages. Heartbreaking stuff.

 

[Fanstar1]

after clearing Bryansk and Viasmya pockets, the german forces were just too understrength and undersupplied to encircle Moscow. Stopping then would have given them a chance to hold off counteroffensive, and provide a stepping off point for 1942 Moscow

 

[Easy-Kill]

Have you read the whole story ?
Rabe and his family were living in poverty after the war and the citizens of Nanjing were sending them care packages. Heartbreaking stuff.

Hat was it Stalin said about tragedy and statistics? The real tragedy is that living in that level of poverty was the norm for millions of families across Europe in the period immediately following WW2. It's only in applying a name to the person that we relate to such suffering and appreciate its significance.

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

Hat was it Stalin said about tragedy and statistics? The real tragedy is that living in that level of poverty was the norm for millions of families across Europe in the period immediately following WW2. It's only in applying a name to the person that we relate to such suffering and appreciate its significance.

That is so not my take away from that story.

You have a committed Nazi who openly helps others avoid mass murder. He returns home to suspicion and scorn from the state, is questioned by the Gestapo, and is only kept out of the camps by the personal intervention of Siemens.

After the war, he is denounced by both NKVD and the British for being a Nazi, not allowed to work, and is starving to death. The people of Nanking send him a gift of money, hand delivered by the mayor of Nanking, and for many years thereafter Nanking send him care packages.

No good deed goes unpunished, God bless John Rabe.

 

[Easy-Kill]

That is so not my take away from that story.

You have a committed Nazi who openly helps others avoid mass murder. He returns home to suspicion and scorn from the state, is questioned by the Gestapo, and is only kept out of the camps by the personal intervention of Siemens.

After the war, he is denounced by both NKVD and the British for being a Nazi, not allowed to work, and is starving to death. The people of Nanking send him a gift of money, hand delivered by the mayor of Nanking, and for many years thereafter Nanking send him care packages.

No good deed goes unpunished, God bless John Rabe.

Oh there is always another take on the story, and I am not sure that my own one is the 'right one' ... It's just the one that that I think of. He was still a Nazi and the company that 'intervened' for him was one of the main recipients for slave labour, and probably responsible for for more deaths than the people he saved in Nanjing.

I think that he even said himself it was more about him being close to the Chinese people that moved him to action.

Again, I'm not saying I am right, just that such an entity as 'the Nazis' can only get away with what they did because the vast majority of people chose to either go along, or actively participate.

 

[Andre Bolkonsky]

Oh there is always another take on the story, and I am not sure that my own one is the 'right one' ... It's just the one that that I think of. He was still a Nazi and the company that 'intervened' for him was one of the main recipients for slave labour, and probably responsible for for more deaths than the people he saved in Nanjing.

I think that he even said himself it was more about him being close to the Chinese people that moved him to action.

Again, I'm not saying I am right, just that such an entity as 'the Nazis' can only get away with what they did because the vast majority of people chose to either go along, or actively participate.

Agreed, there is always another perspective. And, yes, it was respect for those who lived around him that goaded Rabe into action.

Personally, I look at the actions of individuals, not groups. I do not think the vast majority of Germans had any clue what was going on behind the barbed wire, and asking questions was detrimental not only to your health, but the health of your loved ones. The Gestapo serves a higher power, and they do not not play fair.

There was an interview with a boy who grew up idolizing Hitler, a member of the Hitler youth, who felt intimately the charisma Hitler exuded. He stated the Jews were needed for slave labor, to keep the factories running to release troops into the field; after the war, seeing the resources poured into the Camps at the expense of the army, it caused a sea change in his understanding of the Reich and has spent the rest of his life asking questions rather than repeating Hitler's answers.

Stories like Oskar Schindler and John Rabe reaffirm my faith in humanity. These are flawed human beings, card carrying Nazis, who chose humanity over the Party when put on the horns of a dilemna. Rabe, taking a personal risk, saved the lives of others; he was punished by his own nation for trying to retell the truth of the attrocity, then punished again by the Allies simply because he was a Nazi.

When all is lost and you are holding a gun to your own head, Edmund Dantes sails the Pharoan into Marsaille's Harbor and you are saved by the kindnesses you have shown to others in the past.