I have a beef with deterministic crowd's 'plausible' historical understanding.
many of what happened throughout history were not 'plausible' or rational at all.
hungarians turned catholic in early middle ages because their monarch decided there was more short term political gain for them to do so. early russians turned orthodox both due to byzantine missionaries, but also because it was more politically profitable for them to do so. both changes were effected by the whim of the ruler reigning in that nation at that time.
Fast forward to late 17th century for an excellent example ; Prince Eugene, if you push it a bit, single handedly destroyed XIV. Louis's dreams of mega France. Ironically, had Louis not capriciously refused him because Eugene's mother was 'out of favor' with his court, the whole world history would have been a lot different now. Not to mention, If eugene wasnt around, there would be no karlowitz, s. hungary may have remained ottoman for a long time, and Russians may not be able to hammer on a weakened ottoman military in early 18th century and gain lots of ground, politically and provincially.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Eugene_of_Savoy
its a mighty good read, i recommend it.
so, history is actually capricious, wanton, changing on a whim, and generally bullsh@t. with just one second's passing thought in some prominent figure's mind, everything easily changed.
it is beyond illogical to talk of 'plausible' historical outcomes and behave deterministically. because history is everything but those.
many of what happened throughout history were not 'plausible' or rational at all.
hungarians turned catholic in early middle ages because their monarch decided there was more short term political gain for them to do so. early russians turned orthodox both due to byzantine missionaries, but also because it was more politically profitable for them to do so. both changes were effected by the whim of the ruler reigning in that nation at that time.
Fast forward to late 17th century for an excellent example ; Prince Eugene, if you push it a bit, single handedly destroyed XIV. Louis's dreams of mega France. Ironically, had Louis not capriciously refused him because Eugene's mother was 'out of favor' with his court, the whole world history would have been a lot different now. Not to mention, If eugene wasnt around, there would be no karlowitz, s. hungary may have remained ottoman for a long time, and Russians may not be able to hammer on a weakened ottoman military in early 18th century and gain lots of ground, politically and provincially.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Eugene_of_Savoy
its a mighty good read, i recommend it.
so, history is actually capricious, wanton, changing on a whim, and generally bullsh@t. with just one second's passing thought in some prominent figure's mind, everything easily changed.
it is beyond illogical to talk of 'plausible' historical outcomes and behave deterministically. because history is everything but those.