Theo,
Just got a bit of time to read what you fellows have been doing. Great work!
A few recommendations: read Gary Gallagher's The Confederate War and Gabor Boritt's Why the Confederacy Lost. Just a note to you guys, I have a PhD in History and taught military history at West Point for three years before being sent to Purgatory (ahem, the Pentagon).
So, having said that, I think that the CSA would not have survived the post-ACW era taking the antebellum "hey everybody do your own thing!" approach to government. Example: After the Battle of Pea Ridge in early 1862, Davis ordered the remaining CSA forces into Mississippi & Tennessee--a sound strategic decision. In response, the governor of Arkansas, understandably, protested to Davis--and threated to secede from the CSA and make a separate peace with the USA.
Imagine a post-war CSA where every state makes its own decisions, vice the federal system that actually evolved in the CSA during the war. In retrospect, the CSA was MORE of a federal system, than well, the Federals were until the 20th century. Centralized, state controlled industries; the first national draft in American history; a fairly reactionary court system. All together, it gave Davis more power than Lincoln ever had. In reality, the vaunted States Rights, by 1863, were of secondary importance to the CSA war effort. Personally, I doubt that the antebellum political system of the South would have survived long after the war, giving way to a modern, federal democracy. The South, according to most historians, lacked the cohesive nationalism that the USA had--they were upholding upper class interests such as slavery and states rights and trying to sell the idea to yeoman farmers, many of whom had never even seen a slave, much less owned one. In essance, the USA had the 'home field' advantage--Southerners, then and now, were very patriotic and for many it was a major shift in loyalties that never truly shifted from the USA to the CSA. The post-war South, abeted by writers, musicians and propagandists, managed to create the whole 'Lost Cause' myth--that the South was more noble, that their soldiers were better, etc. but it was only that they were overwhelmed by the Blue Hordes. This has been disproven time and time again by historians but the myth still lives on....
Bottom line, the CSA, if it wins the ACW and gains independence, should be a relatively unstable place, filled with unruly slaves and states that are constantly wanting to either be independent or rejoin the Union. In consequence, their production efficency and taxation should be fairly inefficient and wasteful (to reflect differing trade regulations, tariffs and fees varying from state to state) and a high level of popular agitation. Then hit them with the Populists in the 1890's and watch the structure crumble or turn despotic...