I think I start to enjoy this

, I have done some reading about the history of Luxemburg this evening and I must say that I found it very interesting what I found there. Maybe this can form the basis for some events.
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Just a few notes, the Zollverein remained in use until 1918, or at least a variant of the Zollverein. Luxembourg also remained part of that economic "alliance" until 1918.
The Luxembourgish tie to Germany was mainly due to Prussia. After the Napoleonic wars Prussia claimed Luxembourg and other lands in the region. So did the Orange-Nassauans who finally became Kings of the Nederlands. I believe it was at the Vienna congress that this issue was decided. Luxembourg would be granted to the King of the Nederlands (the person) who was supposed to govern the two territories separately. In turn, Prussia would get control of the fortress of Luxembourg (also called the Gibraltar of the North, considered the second most important fortress of Europe after Gibraltar) and some other fortresses in the region (the later iirc). The original Prussian aim had obviously been to make Luxembourg (the whole of it) part of their western territories (Westfalia & co.).
So in Victoria game terms, Luxembourg was a satelite state of the Nederlands in 1815, giving military access to Prussia. Soon after, for all intents and purpouses the country was annexed by the Nederlands (it was not governed separately) but the Prussian garrison was maintained (that can't be portrayed in game). During the Belgian revolution, Luxembourg also sought separation from the Nederlands (most likely as a part of the new Belgian state). But the Prussian garrison prevented any rising near the fortress area (the Victoria province of Luxembourg) leading to a renewed separation of the Luxembourgish territory, the western half around the town Arlon joining Belgium, the eastern half remaining with the Nederlands (but no longer directly governed by the Nederlands). This cannot be directly reflected in Victoria, the closests would be to once again turn Luxembourg (single province now) independent with the treaty of London (but satelite to the Nederlands), Prussia would have military access (and possibly guarantee Luxembourg's independance). The next important stage in Luxembourg's history would be the entirely separate dinasties. According to the Nassau family tradition (and inheritance compact), the oldest branch of said family would inherit any lands of the junior one under certain circumstances. This came into effect for Luxembourg when the Oranie-Nassaus went into the female line (no male inheritance). At that time the Duke of Nassau (Nassau-Weilburg) became Grand Duke of Luxembourg (he retained both titles, united Germany was federal in nature). In game terms that's best represented by tightening the ties to Germany (renew the guarantee, possibly adding a defensive alliance) and severing the satelite status with the Nederlands. The destruction of the fortress was the next step, (to placate France and prevent an early Prussian-French war). In Victoria terms that would mean a slight economic boon for Luxembourg (the fortress was seriously hindering economic expansion) and severing any alliances and military access Luxembourg might have at that time (for instance the defensive one with Germany after the Nassau-Weilburg inheritance), if a fortress is present in Muxembourg province it would also be levelled, in turn, Luxembourg's independance would now be guaranteed by both Prussia (later Germany) and France. Finally, if a Great War occurs between Prussia/Germany and France any time after 1871, an event giving Prussia/Germany a cheap option to declare war on Luxembourg should be included as well (in august 1914, German troops immediately entered Luxembourg without declaration of war, using the still neutral country as spring border into the Belgian and French Ardennes region, officially Luxembourg was not a beligerent during WWI, but after Germany's violation of Luxembourg neutrality, both France and the US sent troops to the country (in 1918, but any Entente country could have done so earlier)). This last aspect is hardest to portray in Victoria, the easiest is to give Prussia/Germany the option to declare war without prestige cost (or low cost).
Finally, the current Luxembourgish Grand Duke is indeed directly descended for Adolf of Nassau-Weilburg. Though he has decided to lay greater claims on his Bourbon family ties (kings of France and Spain among others). But the Dutch and Luxembourgish houses still have close family ties. Both are also in part descended from the counts of Vianden (North Eastern Luxembourg), who in medieval times were the primary rivals of the counts of Luxembourg (of whom the current Grand Duke is not descended, or at least no more then from any other noble house of the period). Which makes their claim to the current coat of arms rather tenous (I use it as my Paradox "icon" in reference to the original counts (first 3 dynasties), not teh current Grand Duke or his family).
Marc aka Caran...
P.S.: If I manage to overcome my constant laziness I will check out a chronology of Luxembourg from Julius Caesar to the modern days sometime (obviously only or the 1830s to 1910s time frame for additional events).