Very Likely = 100%, Likely = 0%

[Lord Finnish]

*snip*

My apologies for being a bit impulsive about this. It just sometimes seems that while the percentages themselves certainly work, at times it feels that the game locks to the (negative) answer and hangs on to it when you once have failed. Of course it would only become a problem if you save scum or in CK2's case spam the Assassinate button, but I've tested it for the hell of it enough times to make me suspicious.

 

[zyphial]

My apologies for being a bit impulsive about this. It just sometimes seems that while the percentages themselves certainly work, at times it feels that the game locks to the (negative) answer and hangs on to it when you once have failed. Of course it would only become a problem if you save scum or in CK2's case spam the Assassinate button, but I've tested it for the hell of it enough times to make me suspicious.

Yes, I probably shouldn't have posted right after playing, since it gets my blood boiling when things start stacking up against you...

But if the numbers given are true and it isn't designed to lie, then it doesn't seem to take some factors into account, or something. B/c I have had situations where "Very Likely" failed 100% of the time, no matter how many save/reloads I use to experiment with. So there's something making it fail that isn't reflected in the % chance, or the PRNG doesn't reset (not likely, since other random things change between saves). Assuming just a sixty percent chance, reloading 10 times should have a fail rate of <2%. Sorry, but it makes no sense to say that I'm just "that unlucky" when it can happen so consistently. If I had the time, I would do a full spreadsheet, but after reloading 20+ times (<0.000002%), it seems pretty clear.

 

[Lemont Elwood]

Man this is driving me insane. I've been playing as Peru and I've been allied with USA for most of the time. Yet every time I attack someone and ask USA for help, despite every time having "likely" chance of joining my war, they refuse. Only once I succeed in this.

Calling allies should be like making allies: Just tell me yes or no, without this BS which over and over again lies about what it means. For the hell of it I reloaded no less than seven times and every time this "likely" was not enough for USA to join my war.

What made me ragequit was also that when I was attacking the landlocked, OPM Colombia, UK and France both joined the war against me.... wtf. Colombia is not even in anyone's sphere.

Using the APD mod may be affecting this, but I've occasionally gotten alliances and such with Unlikely odds.

I think maybe it would be better if instead of randomness or yes-no, making a "Likely" or "Unlikely" proposal would start off a negotiations process and other events. So you can try and influence the outcome, and have repercussions beyond that.

 

[nestorius]

Yes, I probably shouldn't have posted right after playing, since it gets my blood boiling when things start stacking up against you...

But if the numbers given are true and it isn't designed to lie, then it doesn't seem to take some factors into account, or something. B/c I have had situations where "Very Likely" failed 100% of the time, no matter how many save/reloads I use to experiment with. So there's something making it fail that isn't reflected in the % chance, or the PRNG doesn't reset (not likely, since other random things change between saves). Assuming just a sixty percent chance, reloading 10 times should have a fail rate of <2%. Sorry, but it makes no sense to say that I'm just "that unlucky" when it can happen so consistently. If I had the time, I would do a full spreadsheet, but after reloading 20+ times (<0.000002%), it seems pretty clear.

well podcat just stated "I am pretty sure we save the random generator state as well, although things can happen that change it that you might not notice as the player." which I take as having the random issue plugged in. So it would make sense if it failed the first time it would always fail. though I do seem to remember that in CK2 you could save assassinate, reload and asssassinate and you may get a different result then again I maybe wrong.

 

[Aghahowa]

Using the APD mod may be affecting this, but I've occasionally gotten alliances and such with Unlikely odds.

I think maybe it would be better if instead of randomness or yes-no, making a "Likely" or "Unlikely" proposal would start off a negotiations process and other events. So you can try and influence the outcome, and have repercussions beyond that.

I fully agree with that. I have always found really weird to imagine diplomats traveling thousand of miles away from home just to ask "Do you want to become allied? No? Ok then, I'll go back home."

Negotiating alliances, military access and other stuff would really be a nice improvement to Vicky II.