Vendettas

[unmerged(176048)]

So I tried to assassinate someone in another court. Three attempts, all unsuccessful, and all discovered. I wonder how the odds are calculated?

Anyway, soon afterwards I started getting assassinations directed my way! Since this was the first time it had happened to me in over a century of play, I figured it must be some kind of tit-for-tat. Sadly, some of the attacks were successful. (Again, I'd like to know how the odds work).

One of the victims was a dynasty member who was a fosterling at another court. That court (one of my vassals) took a shot at the instigator (my original target), and was discovered. The other court then launched an assassination right back. Pretty soon it was a full scale assassin's war. The two counts only stopped when they ran out of gold. Just for fun I gave them each 1000 gold- sure enough, the assassination war started up again.

I finally put a stop to it by revoking the title of my original victim.

 

[Veldmaarschalk]

The AI will only try to assasinate in your court (or someone from your dynastie) if you have assasinated someone in their court.

 

[unmerged(7537)]

I'm pretty sure the odds are influenced by both your and the target ruler's (modified?) Intrigue rating.

Also I believe that the more "important" your target is, the harder s/he is to assassinate i.e. it's fairly easy to kill minor courtiers but it's more difficult to assassinate a ruler.

But honestly, I have not thoroughly tested this theory.

 

[jordarkelf]

The only thing that matters is the realm intrigue (ruler + spymaster). If yours is higher than your target's, it will likely succeed. If not, it won't.
A useful tactic is to first kill the spymaster, and then your actual target.

 

[unmerged(176048)]

All three attempts, if I recall correctly, were against the spy master. Maybe I was just unlucky.

@Tambourmajor: Certainly it costs less to go after minor courtiers than against the ruler.

If I can figure out how to make it reliable it will be a good tool against those darn Seljuks. Getting rid of a Sultan with a high martial and intrigue so the throne goes to his 3 month-old son sure helps keep my borders secure.

 

[unmerged(175287)]

It might just have been luck, but I've also found children (whatever their title) are easier to kill than their adult counterparts.