With conclave. Pretty much every christian realm in my games will go elective well within the first century of play. And will most likely remain elective as to change out of elective you need to neuter the council and have positive opinion something the ai can't do as it is terrible at ck2.
Have you played without conclave? Because it happens even faster since again, vassals have nothing else to faction for that early into the game. As in 5-20 years into the game, before Charlemagne even event kills off his brother.
The mean time to happen is extended much further out with conclave than without as war declaration is a makeshift dam to the factioning.
This isn't even Conclave's fault, but moreso the lack of stuff to faction for increases of vassal power.
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