USSR plans if there was no barbarossa

[frolix42]

Why?

Because if the Japanese controlled the Dutch East-Indies, this would give them resources to offset the oil embargo of the United States. The US embargo was placed on Japan in the first place because Japan was using it's military power aggressively in an attempt to monopolize East-Asia. Since Commodore Perry the United States has had a huge strategic and economic interest in East-Asia. Also Japanese seizure of the East-Indies would isolate the United States from their bases in the Philippines. The fact that Japan would be attacking the United States's last ally (Great Britain was co-administering Indochina in 1940) is only the tip of the iceberg.

We did nothing when Britain itself was under imminent threat of invasion from Germany.

I'm sorry, this is untrue, the Americans did quite a lot before they entered the war. I apologize for the blocks of text.

An "imminent threat" of invasion means that the invasion is going to happen for sure. Sea-Lion never did happen, it became virtually impossible in 1940, in large part due to the fact that the United States was supplying Great Britain with all sorts of materials, most significantly planes to help win the Battle of Britain. The United States was doing so much to help Britain, while technically remaining at peace, that the leadership of Germany felt that the United States was de facto their enemy and was imminently going to join the war against them.

A closer look at Aircraft Armaments, perhaps the most decisive sector of Britain's defense, shows how American involvement was decisive before it officially entered the war.

TLDR: In 1940 Great Britain was able to domestically outproduce Germany in Aircraft. In 1941 the United States was able to outproduce both Britain and Germany (individually) in aircraft while technically remaining at peace until 07 December.

Fact is that at the time the US population didn't want to get involved in the world war. Had Germany not declared war on us we probably wouldn't have involved ourselves more in the European theater, and had Japan not attacked Pearl Harbor we probably wouldn't have done much in the Pacific either.

In such counter-factual scenarios, we will never know for sure. Past precedent contradicts you, the Germans did not declare on the United States in World War 1, effectively unrestricted submarine warfare caused Wilson to join the Allies. I consider the Zimmerman Telegram to be silly pretext, embarrassing for Germany but meaningless on it's own.

 

[TheDungen]

Yup. Don't press the attack on Britain after taking France. Don't declare war on the US, then when the fight with the Soviets starts propagandize yourself as being on the side of capitalism. Bare minimum you'll probably keep America out of the war, and Britain might be amenable to ending hostilities...maybe.

I'd very much try to avoid taking on france too. Yes that means that Elsass lothringen is lost but france simply wont give those up without a fight andfighting france is simply too likely to escalate into a world war.

 

[Shadowbirdd]

..Or what if Poland had given up Danzing to Germany. And if we assume that there was no declaration of war from any nation at this point. What would have Stalin do?

 

[fredgiblet]

..Or what if Poland had given up Danzing to Germany. And if we assume that there was no declaration of war from any nation at this point. What would have Stalin do?

That can actually happen in HoI 3. Confused the hell out of me. I was like "Well now what?!"

Stalin probably wouldn't have done much of anything, maybe he would have still annexed the Baltic states, but the Germans were going to be the aggressors in Poland, it's unlikely Stalin would have stepped into their shoes for that.

Because if the Japanese controlled the Dutch East-Indies, this would give them resources to offset the oil embargo of the United States. The US embargo was placed on Japan in the first place because Japan was using it's military power aggressively in an attempt to monopolize East-Asia. Since Commodore Perry the United States has had a huge strategic and economic interest in East-Asia. Also Japanese seizure of the East-Indies would isolate the United States from their bases in the Philippines. The fact that Japan would be attacking the United States's last ally (Great Britain was co-administering Indochina in 1940) is only the tip of the iceberg.

Would that, in and of itself, be sufficient "cassus belli" to get the American people to commit to a war? I doubt it. The government probably would have tried to manipulate people into supporting a Pacific war after that, but there's no guarantee it would work.

An "imminent threat" of invasion means that the invasion is going to happen for sure. Sea-Lion never did happen, it became virtually impossible in 1940, in large part due to the fact that the United States was supplying Great Britain with all sorts of materials, most significantly planes to help win the Battle of Britain. The United States was doing so much to help Britain, while technically remaining at peace, that the leadership of Germany felt that the United States was de facto their enemy and was imminently going to join the war against them.

The first part is true but irrelevant, whether it's feasible or not is less important than if it was PERCEIVED as being imminent by the populace. In general people don't perform the necessary calculations and come to logical conclusions, they flip out and act on what seems like it MIGHT happen.

The second part is certainly true and why they declared war on us after Pearl Harbor.

In such counter-factual scenarios, we will never know for sure. Past precedent contradicts you, the Germans did not declare on the United States in World War 1, effectively unrestricted submarine warfare caused Wilson to join the Allies. I consider the Zimmerman Telegram to be silly pretext, embarrassing for Germany but meaningless on it's own.

Yes, and after WW1 the general populace was quite content to let the Europeans deal with their own issues, which is the entire reason why it took Pearl Harbor to get us into the war and why Roosevelt had to keep promising to stop short of war.