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KyrionMyrthar

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Stalin didn't believe Germany could attack before 1942, and Soviet plans reflected that. The blurb from "What Stalin Knew" by David E. Murphy is illuminating, too: One of the enduring puzzles of World War II is Stalin's dismissal of unmistakable evidence of a looming German invasion, a blunder that contributed to the disastrous Russian defeats of 1941. This engaging study of the Soviet intelligence apparatus helps clarify the mystery. Murphy, an ex-CIA Soviet specialist and co-author of Battleground Berlin: CIA vs. KGB in the Cold War, argues that Stalin knew virtually everything for many months before the attack. Soviet spies in the German government offered detailed reports of invasion plans. Britain and the United States passed along warnings. Soviet agents in Eastern Europe noted the millions of German soldiers heading east to the Soviet border and their stock-piling of weapons and Russian phrase books. Stalin rejected these reports as Western provocations and barred the Red Army from taking elementary precautions, like chasing off the German reconnaissance planes surveying their defenses. Murphy presents a bizarre additional wrinkle in two letters Hitler sent to allay Stalin's suspicions, which claimed that the German armies massing in Poland were preparing to attack England and warned Stalin that rogue Wehrmacht units might invade Russia against Hitler's wishes-a smokescreen that inhibited Stalin's response to the German buildup and initial attacks. Murphy chalks up the debacle to Stalin's clinging to a Marxist fantasy of the capitalist powers fighting each other to exhaustion, and to the paralysis instilled in the Red Army by his purges. Fearful subordinates bowed to Stalin's absurd complacency about German intentions; the one intelligence chief who dared challenge his delusions was arrested and shot. Murphy's well-researched account offers both a meticulous reconstruction of an intelligence epic and a window into the tragedy of Stalin's despotism.
 

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Folks, let's try to stay on topic. You can always discuss Stalin's competency before and during Barbarossa in the history forum.


To answer your question, 21oliver, I don't rightly know how the AI makes the call. I am 99% sure that relations don't matter, but I feel confident that threat is in the AI's logic somewhere.

To be honest, this is a question that Lothos might have a good answer for, since I think it's his AI scripts. :)

I'm going to change the title of the thread so it is clearer what this discussion is about. That might attract more knowledgeable people.
 

21oliver

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SM Im convinced too relations has nothing to do with it. It is threat related, just not sure what the threshold is. Prior to making this thread i played about half a dozen partial games as Japan playing around with what i could do or not do. I could take all of National China and be ok, but the next attack usually or at most the 2nd would trigger the embargo. Now that doesnt mean that the USA would run and join the ALLies or DOW right away, but nevertheless the embargo would happen.

Interesting that the Embargo is really only an "event" the USA uses. Other nations cancel trades but you seldom if ever see yourself being "embargoed" by the Allies or Soviets, if your the Axis.
 

Lothos

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At what point does the USA Embargo Japan?

In TFH there is I believe some LUA for it but it never fires because USA's neutrality is never low enough. Under TRP I adjusted it so that it is low enough for the AI to fire it and several of the allied nations (including NEI) follow suite and embargo Japan as well.

What I find funny is Japan then turns around and trades with the Soviets and since the Soviets are just about being invaded by Germany at the point they are so happy to dump all their excess oil into Japans hands for money! It was definitely funny to see.
 

Lothos

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Actually Lothos i get it all the time as Japan, thats the point of the thread. How much i can get away with prior to the USA firing it...

Well if I had to guess sometime after Indo-China gets annexed by Japan.
 

21oliver

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I wasnt specific. I never fire "seize the coast", I always take all of China as Japan. Then i can usually (but not always) get away with one more conquest, occasionally two before the USA embargoes me.