It's not so bad to be defeated by the US. First, they beat the begeezus out of you, then they help dust you off and pick you up. But seriously, would the US have extended the Marshall Plan and helped Germany and Japan re-integrate into the world order as INDUSTRIALIZED countries IF there had been no Cold War? If the US had not needed both countries as allies against the Soviets, would the US had pursued a more Morgenthau-type policy toward both countries, i.e. perhaps reduce them to pastoral states?