MattyG said:So, that could be option 1 for the ai, to drop Norway and pursue the Hansa by forging an anti=piracy alliance with the Order and Finland. Option 2 could be to press Norway in the hopes that gaining the western side of the Sund and Scandinavia might allow for trade to rely less on the Baltic, rendering the pirates less of an imposition, and forcing the Hansa to accept that Kalmar is just too large to challenge militarily. Finally, option 3 would be to mend the rift with the League. The League would get tax free shipping through the Sund in exchange for fighting against the Vitalians.
Yes, that sounds pretty much spot on. The option the player would want to choose is probably: temporary truce with Norway to fight the pirates, and then when they've been dealt with, turn around and attack Norway. The truce with Norway wouldn't necessarily involve losing cores, we'd just change the Kalmar AI so it doesn't attack Norway as readily, and improve KAL-NOR relations (they'd still deteriorate over time though).
My idea for what's going on in Sweden is that a majority of nobles do actually back Kalmar, and as a result the rebels were defeated in mainland Sweden. (Maybe we could have an event to generate a period of revolts in Sweden early on in the game, representing a later attempt by anti-Danish forces to seize control - it's possible the rebels will win, as SWE is a revolter tag, but if Sweden doesn't form 'naturally' in such a situation, we can assume the pro-Kalmar forces have won.) However, they got control of Finland province, and teamed up with the mercenaries on Gotland, who are fanatically anti-Danish (ordinary Gotlanders don't like Denmark too much either, as they are freer under the current arrangement).
Finland doesn't want a resurgent Sweden, but above all they want to play the balance of power game and make sure no-one gets too strong. That means that while they won't ally with the pirates, they'll be reluctant to move too strongly against them in case it puts Kalmar in too powerful a position. However, if Kalmar has done badly in Norway or against the Hansa, they won't seem as threatening, and in any case the Finns don't want Hanseatic dominance either. So generally speaking the Finns will back the weaker side, within reason, or stay out altogether.
The TO isn't too interested in the whole Baltic squabbling and has better things to do early on, though like everyone they find the pirates a bit of a nuisance. However, they have quite good relations with the Hansa, so they have the best chance of persuading the Hansa to distance themselves from Gotland. (They also might be able to threaten the Hansa heartland if it comes to that, as Mecklenburg isn't very far from Prussia.) Later on the TO has growing trade aspirations of its own, but in the 15th century it's very land focused, with its main aims being to finish off Poland and to consolidate the controlling position of Catholic Germans inside its current territory (which includes a lot of land that was until recently ruled by the pagan Liths). So their role in a Baltic conflict is likely to be more behind the scenes, or possibly along the southern shore, but they're unlikely to be in a position to attack places in or north of the sea.