Two questions

[Wolf52]

I am playing as Germany and I was a bit confused about two things. It is now May of 1941 and Yugoslavia joined the Axis by event a long time ago, but there has not been the coup that I would normally expect to take them out of the Axis. Why is this? Also, I thought Romania would have a coup at some point to become Paternal Autocrat but it has not happened yet. Do I need to be allied with them first for it to happen?

 

[Zsar1]

Both countries have several coup events. ROM events cannot be denied but all have a random component. YUG events all can be denied at 10+% AI chance.

Specifically the YUG coup event in response to entering the Pact of Steel has a 20% chance to not break the pact.