turning down likelyhood of a revolt

[unmerged(7402)]

anyone know how to turn down the likelyhood of a revolt? I think it is a bit crazy to have a provence revolt every month with about 25 or 30k troops even if it is on a 3% risk.

 

[Sorcerer]

Sorry, you can't reduce the probability of national revolt risk. It vanishes after 30 years, though (1% in 10 years). Any other revolt risk depends on stability, religion, war exhaustion, and so on. You see the factors for revolt risk when you hover your mouse over the number in the city information screen.
But having a province revolt every month, well that's bad luck or the Dutch nationalism...

 

[unmerged(6159)]

Yeah, a 3% revolt risk means you should get a revolt roughly every 20 months for each province. Must be bad luck.

 

[Chas]

Originally posted by Isaac Brock
Yeah, a 3% revolt risk means you should get a revolt roughly every 20 months for each province. Must be bad luck.

Really? I assumed it would be on average every 33 months for a 3% risk. So I've always thought as a rule of thumb that you should get roughly on average 3-4 revolts in the first 10 years, 2 in the second 10 years and 1 in the last 10 years.

I must have misunderstood the mechanism again. No wonder I always seem to get more revolts than I think I deserve (not that I've actually done a systematic study of it). How does it convert revolt % into revolts then?

 

[unmerged(6909)]

For the first month you have a chance of 97% for no revolt in 1 single province.

After 2 months:
no revolts: (0.97*0.97)= 94.1%
1 revolt: (0.97*0.03)+(0.03*0.97)= 5.8%
2 revolts: (0.03*0.03)=0.09%

after 3 months

etc.

With a bit bad luck you can even have 2 consecutive revolts in a single province after 2 months. This should happen more than once in each game either to you or your neighbours.