Turkey Mutinies

[Want0n]

My first run through of new Turkey has left me feeling pretty hard done by. Ended it in 1941 after joining Comintern, getting ready to face Axis Balkans, but then rolling Brother on Brother three times in a row, meaning I have a civil war due in 14 days.

I calculate the chances of failing 3 times consecutively as around 6%. Have I just been incredibly unlucky or is there something broken under the hood? It was an Ironman run so can't easily replicate it.

Anyone else seen similar goings on? Have to say I have a lot of sympathy for the other thread I saw bemoaning the RNG nature of Turkey's diplomatic actions!! Pretty frustrating to low roll that badly.

 

[Iskulya]

I don't really know what you're talking about. Can you clarify?

Brother on brother? I've literally never heard of this before.

I've played Comintern Turkey and had no problems at all.

 

[Want0n]

I don't really know what you're talking about. Can you clarify?

Brother on brother? I've literally never heard of this before.

I've played Comintern Turkey and had no problems at all.

It is one of the outcomes from the "Mutinies" Crisis. There is a choice to spend 85 pp or 125 pp. Spending 85 has a 60% chance of resolving the crisis. 40% chance of losing 10% stability and 10% war support I think it was. This is the Brother on Brother outcome.

I spent 85 pp three times and got the 40% outcome each time. 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 is around 6%. Felt pretty bad as it effectively ended my game.

 

[George Parr]

I don't think that's how the math works. These are independent events, the likelyhood of each singular event always stays the same, it is still 60/40. Once you already got the 0.4 twice, the chances of the last flip being negative for you was again at 40%.

Yes, getting 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 has only a chance of about 6%, but then again, 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 only has about a 10% chance of happening as well. To better illustrate this, look at coin flips. The odds of getting heads 10 times in a row, followed by another heads, is exactly the same as getting heads ten times in a row followed by tails.

 

[Want0n]

I don't think that's how the math works.

Yes, getting 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 has only a chance of about 6%, but then again, 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 only has about a 10% chance of happening as well. To better illustrate this, look at coin flips. The odds of getting heads 10 times in a row, followed by another heads, is exactly the same as getting heads ten times in a row followed by tails.

No, that is how the math works. Any other outcome would have been fine for me because it meant the crisis would have resolved (i.e. the other 94% of outcomes were 'good').

I was hoping someone with the requisite codong knowledge could have a quick look and see that it is working as intended. I'm quite prepared to accept I have been that unlucky (wouldn't be the first time!), in which case I win't bother playing Turkey again for a while...

 

[Dryhad]

No, that is how the math works. Any other outcome would have been fine for me because it meant the crisis would have resolved (i.e. the other 94% of outcomes were 'good').

I was hoping someone with the requisite codong knowledge could have a quick look and see that it is working as intended. I'm quite prepared to accept I have been that unlucky (wouldn't be the first time!), in which case I win't bother playing Turkey again for a while...

I don't really get what you're looking for here. You're clearly aware of how this event chain works in sufficient detail to know the odds of all possible outcomes, what exactly are you hoping "coding knowledge" will reveal beyond this? I suppose I can say, in response to the thread title, that the only relevance Turkey itself has to any of this is that it drops stability hard when Ataturk dies and you apparently didn't take advantage of enough of the mitigating options the game gives you (e.g. Six Arrows) to deal with this. There certainly isn't a special modifier to make sure Turkey gets bad outcomes from this event chain if that's what you're asking. You got unlucky, but you could have made your own luck by not putting yourself in the position of being at war with low stability in the first place.

ETA: Upon further reflection, I think George Parr's point about the probability calculation is well made. Having flipped two coins and come up tails, you chose with eyes wide open to flip a third coin (not strictly coinflips but close enough). You could just as easily have chosen the third option with better probability when you knew that failure would lead to a civil war. If the decision you made at that point was based on the calculation that you "only" had a 6% chance of failure then that was definitely wrong, you had a 40% chance of failure on the last event. You have the bad beats in retrospect but everyone rolls a critical failure once in a while, 6% isn't that unlikely in the big picture. More relevant here is the gameplay decisions you made that put you into the crisis and allowed it to persist.

 

[Iskulya]

I'm still confused.

Mutinies are something that happen if your war support is too low when you go to war. This has absolutely nothing to do with Turkey specifically.

The solution is to make sure you have a war support above 50 before going to war. This is very easy to do because by the time major wars are going on, you should be able to take very cheap war propaganda decisions that boost your support. Turkey also additionally has a "Nationalism" decision that is available after taking the very second focus in its tree for 75pp that boosts war support by 2% for a few weeks.

There's really no reason to have any trouble with getting high war support as Turkey unless you're new to the game and don't know what you're doing.

The issue of those low stab/WS events while being at war causing a death spiral is a separate thing, but in practice it's extremely easy to avoid being in that situation no matter what country you're playing.

 

[GSP Jr]

The odds don't change as you go, the 60/40 is always 60/40.
Previous results have absolutely no bearing on the odds of the next attempt.
No matter how many 'heads' come up consecutively, the odds are 50/50 the next toss.

Unless of course, you can have the coin land on the thin edge, but what are the odds of that?

 

[Want0n]

Not disputing probability mechanics anymore, I was just interested to know if I was unlucky or if there was possibly an underlying issue with the mechanics. I've not seen a mutiny before, in ~200 hours of play, so I assumed it must be a specific Turkey thing. If it's not, then that's good to know. I'll have to look at the mechanics in that case.

For what it's worth, I resolved the civil war, took the same decision again and haven't had the fail event trigger. The mutiny national spirit hasn't disappeared either... so will need to research what that means, apparently.

 

[Harin]

My first run through of new Turkey has left me feeling pretty hard done by. Ended it in 1941 after joining Comintern, getting ready to face Axis Balkans, but then rolling Brother on Brother three times in a row, meaning I have a civil war due in 14 days.

I calculate the chances of failing 3 times consecutively as around 6%. Have I just been incredibly unlucky or is there something broken under the hood? It was an Ironman run so can't easily replicate it.

Anyone else seen similar goings on? Have to say I have a lot of sympathy for the other thread I saw bemoaning the RNG nature of Turkey's diplomatic actions!! Pretty frustrating to low roll that badly.

I hate to hear those were ironman games. To address your question, though, I have not seen anyone else posting such bad luck on that decision, nor have I seen any posts about stated odds within the new DLC not matching actual outcomes. It would probably take the skill of Bitmode to give you a definitive answer.