How I screwed up Poland
NOTE: this post is meant to address Mowers' query as to how Poland's fatal situation came about.
When I took over Poland, it was in very good shape: over a 100 ducats in treasury, around 3% inflation, good economy (not a single merchant anywhere, but a tax collector in every province), and good army (around 40k). Within a couple of months, Poland and Lithuania successfully blackmailed Hungary into giving us 100 d, and a glorious future seemed to lie ahead. I resisted calls from a belligerent Lithuania to immediately begin hostilities against TO - partly out of caution (we had a truce, and I didn't want the stab hit), partly because if there's one thing I really dislike it's jumping on a player that has just joined the game and is in a tricky situation.
God must have frowned on Poland though for not putting a swift end to the arrogant Teutons, for I was swiftly hit by a series of events: 2 x support for dissidents abroad, and 1x unhappiness among the clergy. This was followed by the Nieszawa historical event, in which I chose to defy the magnates. A couple of months later Poland was hit by civil war, which restored stability to +3, but erased the entire Polish army ( a loss of approx. 500 d). I sat tight, saving money, while Lithuania agitated against Muscovy. In the end I bowed to the temptation and negotiated a long term strategic agreement with Novgorod: Poland and Lithuania would support Novgorod in its fight for the crown of Russia, and even cede Russia's core provinces after the Lublin Union, in return for future assistance against the TO and Poland's claims on selected German provinces.
Lithuania DoWed Muscovy, and as arranged Novgorod switched alliances. At this point Poland still didn't have any loans, and I supported my allies with a small cavalry corps raised entirely out of saved money. However, Muscovy fought back with tenacity and skill, and it quickly became apparent I'll have to support my allies with more than a few thousand cavalry. That was when I took the first loan: at stab +3, with a yearly income of over 80 d, it seemed like a reasonable risk to take. I recruited more troops and sent them against Muscovy as soon as the snows melted. At that point the Muscovy player dropped from the game, and his armies/provinces became untouchable. Net result: lost a few thousand troops to attrition without any gains.
The game was rehosted soon afterwards, but the new player who took over Muscovy proved to be very skillful. Seeing that the Russian army is far from strong, I invested all my remaining cash in more troops. We managed to lay siege to Moscow, and defeated the Russian army that tried to lift the siege. This is when I made a big mistake, persuading my allies to pursue the retreating Russian army into the neighbouring province (woods and snow). For some reason I was convinced the Russians have only 10k or so left; they had 20, and defeated the allied armies, which had suffered a painful attrition hit during the pursuit. Still, the Russian army was weak overall, and there was a chance of turning things around. However, the Ottomans declared war on Lithuania. Lithuania had to cede two provinces, but delayed that decision for a few months which resulted in reduced pressure on the Russians in the meantime, and extra military losses for no gain.
In the meantime, the situation in the northeast grew desperate. Novgorod decided to follow a very conservative fiscal policy, relying on its meagre income to raise new troops, and thus its army kept getting smaller and smaller; soon it was unable to prevent the Russian army from looting its capital. I consulted my allies who promised to put their best foot forward if I send more troops to support them.
I agree with Peter that the right thing to do at this point was to negotiate a white peace. However, Muscovy refused Lithuania's white peace offer (and rightly so - it had a big positive war score, in large part due to numerous defeats of tiny allied detachments). Unfortunately Muscovy wasn't occupying any of the allied provinces, and the allies had no money to offer; the result was a stalemate. At this point the Polish army alone was the size of the Russian army. Novgorod still had 4k; Lithuania had over a dozen regiments. It was decided to launch one final offensive to win peace. That's when I took the second loan, and I assure you it was done with great misgivings. I was sure that one final offensive will persuade the Russians to accept peace.
Then the TO declared war on Lithuania. This was when I made the worst mistake of them all: I clicked decline by an accident when Lithuania asked for help. I had to reverse that decision and saw my stab drop to - 3; I had set up RMs with TO allies in the hope that a) they might deter them from joining TO in the war (reasonable hope, since Poland's relations with all TO allies except Pommern were around +150) b) give TO allies stability hits if they do decide to join. I really wish the in-game panels were designed consistently, with the accept option always on the left and the decline option always on the right. When you have six panels popping up on top of each other and you're clicking through them, a bit of lag is all that's needed to screw up things.
Peter behaved in an honourable fashion, returning the earlier favour by abstaining from an invasion of Polish lands. However, his AI led allies had no concept of honour, and huge armies to boot (Mecklemburg alone had 60k troops at one point). Poland was invaded by Pommern, who laid siege to Poznan (Posen). I didn't manage to lift the siege in spite of having superior numbers and high quality troops; I was a fool to try, but I'd forgotten that we'd switched the game difficulty to Very Hard, which results in absurdly lucky combat rolls for the AI. A few months later, Posen fell. The Polish army laid siege, and was defeated by inferior enemy forces. Soon after that, the remnants of the Polish army(some 16k - more than half cavalry, full morale) were attacked and crushingly defeated on the plains of Wielkopolska by a corps from Bremen (5k infantry only).
Pommern, basking in its high war score, kept refusing offers of peace which included Poznan. This was when I took a third loan, in order to offer Pomern both Poznan and money. They declined that as well. I spent the cash refused by the Pommeranians on troops, and was almost immediately hit by yet ANOTHER pay-cash-now-no-other-option event (I don't remember what it was; I was close to hysterics by then). Result: fourth loan. By that time the WE and RR were so high stability was stuck at -3.
Soon enough, the game was suspended for an hour. I just had to get some sleep - I'd slept a total of 4 hours on Friday and Saturday nights (and if you'd been taking it in the chops like that, you would need to lie down, too). I slept longer than I should, but I took the precaution of asking Stingray (who was waiting to join the game) to inform others I might be a bit late. When I showed up on vnet later, the game had already been resumed, played, and wrapped up. It really wasn't my intention to abandon a screwed up Poland, and I apologise for not showing up on time.
This was my first participation in a Tsunami game, and I have the following observations;
1) The Tsunami isn't really a game a such, but a great experiment of proven value (it stimulates Johan to release new patches).
2) The 'you can have another country later' business encourages bad gameplay. I'm sure most players who usually laugh at bankruptcy would play differently if they knew they have to stick with their chosen country till the bitter end. I would have definitely stuck with the Papal states had I been defeated fairly.
3) Selecting Very Hard difficulty results in absurd gameplay, and makes this exploit possible: form an alliance with a bunch of AI countries, and let them bear the brunt of fighting. They'll win almost all battles they fight, often even when fighting against astronomical odds. In my opinion, Very Hard is best reserved for people who just have to conquer the world every time they play, and find it boring after a while in single play.
This is not to say the Tsunami isn't interesting - it's immensely interesting if just for the chance to see 20 plus human players in the same game, and I'd gladly play it again. But after such a dismal showing (my worst game as long as memory reaches) I don't think I'll ever dare to ask for a spot. Finally, I'd like to point out that I took loans out twice as the Papal states, and repaid them on time each time - until Hive pulled his 28 loan stunt.
PS. Nevertheless I'll show up at the next announced T2 session to continue playing Poland, if you let me. This is particularly humiliating since Poland is the one bigger country I know well. Yet I was completely taken by surprise when the Nieszawa event popped up - goes to show that playing the Tsunami is pretty exciting.