Trouble in the Balkans, September 1939
Il Duce had calculated that the Allies would not interfere with his ambitions in Yugoslavia. He believed France too weak to act without the United Kingdom's support, and the British too tied to his generous economic treaties – as well as too eager to keep him from alliance with Germany – to expand the war. As for Germany herself, she could not afford a third front: she simply did not have the troops.
In all of these calculations, Mussolini was correct. The UK and France publicly denounced Italy for her "act of aggression", but they had made no guarantees to Yugoslavia and could not afford them now. In Berlin, Hitler even seemed to warm a little toward il Duce. Half of the troops on the Italian border were withdrawn, heading toward the battles in Poland or the quiet front lines in the west.
It was with the minor nations that Mussolini's calculations went awry. He had expected a free hand in Yugoslavia. Plan 12 was predicated on the concept: a four-pronged assault from Italy, Albania, Hungary and Bulgaria, splitting Yugoslavia between them.
Romania's declaration of war on September 1st, less than 24 hours after Italian forces began to march, was a significant blow to Plan 12. The declaration by Greece, three days later, left the plan in tatters.
"What are you going to do about this?" Mussolini demanded of Badoglio. The two men stood in the dictator's office. Il Duce, woken in the middle of the night with the news of the Greek declaration, was still dressed in his silk pyjamas. "Already the governments of Hungary and Bulgaria are telling me that they must abandon their planned offensives! I have had to ship additional men to Vlore just to hold the lines! There can be no offensive from Albania now."
"I understand your concern, Duce." Badoglio carefully kept his expression and tone neutral, though a stiffening in his spine indicated his disdain for the other man's panic, "But I think once you have had a chance to examine the situation, those concerns will be lessened."
Mussolini was not used to being rebuked, even so indirectly. For a moment he bristled. Then he paused and nodded.
"Explain."
Badoglio spread a map on the desk.
"As you noted, our allies have been forced to abandon their offensives. Romania is moving troops toward Debrecen in Hungary and Pleven in Bulgaria. Hungary's army is likely to be pushed back soon. I think Bulgaria could hold, were it not for the Greek attack on their southern border."
"This is doing little to reassure me, Badoglio."
"I wanted to acknowledge the very real difficulties we face before outlining the positives." The General moved his finger to Albania, "Greece has also attack Vlore, but the reinforcements you sent there will quickly halt their advance. Together with the forces that have already advanced into Skopje, they pose enough of a threat to Greece herself that the enemy will need to divert troops to screen against a possible counter-attack. This will alleviate some of the pressure on Bulgaria. The presence of new airfields in Tirana will also aid us. Our air force is much superior to that of our enemies, and we will be able to disrupt their movements."
Badoglio turned his attention to the north.
"But it is in the north that the real questions of this campaign have been asked and answered. I know that the German advance in Poland has been more dramatic than our own, but they are operating in open country, with motorised troops. In light of the terrain we must deal with, our progress is excellent. Our advance into Yugoslavia is proceeding almost as fast as the men can march. Rijeka has fallen and there is virtually no organised resistance to our attack."
Il Duce frowned,
"Sooner or later we will meet the Yugoslavian reserves. How will our advance fare then?"
"The equipment of the units we have already faced is very poor, and their training not much better." Badoglio advised, "Their reserves, and I do not believe they will be large, as they still must guard against attacks by our allies, are not a concern. We will reach the Hungarian border within two weeks, and take Sarajevo within three."
Mussolini stared at the older man, then nodded.
"Very well. The attack continues. But if Sarajevo does not fall within the month, you will be held personally responsible."
Game Notes
The declarations by Greece and Romania came as a genuine surprise. I hadn't expected or planned on them (my only concern had been the Allies). Taken as a whole, Yugoslavia, Greece and Romania are no match for Italy, Hungary and Bulgaria, but the disposition of forces gave them a local superiority in several areas. This war proved a lot of fun to fight, as I tried to stymie Greek and Romanian advances long enough for the unstoppable flood of Italian troops in the north to do their job.