Trade Number Crunching

[xrws31]

Hi All,

I'm asking if anyone has done the maths on Steering vs Collecting.

I've done alot of searching around on this topic, and while there is alot of advice out there, none of it comes with any hard numbers to back it up; its all just opinions.

Further to that, there is conflicting advice out there. The general advice that people give on forums, youtube, reddit etc is that it is (almost) always better to steer and to only collect in your home-node. And yet, the advice given on the wiki page here is that you should almost always collect.

The wiki's advice makes sense to me. Working through an example:

If there are 3 nodes in a chain

A -> B -> C

And I have my home-node collecting in C. (There are other nodes branching away from A/B/C, but I have no power in them, so I ignore them).

Lets assume that I have 50% trade-power in each node, and I have B Steering to C. Lets also assume that A has 10 ducats of trade-value in it.

Should I send a merchant to Collect in A, or Steer from A to B?

If I collect, I take a 50% trade-power loss in node-A. My understanding is that this is a multiplicative modifier applied to the Trade-Power-Amount, and not to the Trade-Power-Percentage, and not a flat reduction, so my trade-power in A does not go from 50% to 0%, and it does not go from 50% to 25%, instead it actually goes from 50% to 33%.

So if I Collect in A, I will collect 3.33 Ducats (before modifiers).

If I choose to forward, I forward 50% of the 10 Ducats to node-B (so 5 Ducats), and then from node-B I forward 50% of that to node-A (so 2.5 Ducats), and then in node-A I collect 50% of the 2.5 Ducats, so 1.25 Ducats. Each forwarding-action also boosts the value by 5%, so factoring this in the value I could collect on in node-A is 1.37 Ducats.

Therefore, in this basic scenario, Collecting > Steering. Collecting is actually more than twice as efficient as Steering (in this particular scenario).

Now of course, in the actual game, with hundreds of different nations, sending out hundreds of merchants, doing different things upstream/downstream, and with a vast array of different modifiers being applied at various stages, it will obviously be more complicated than that, so there is no such thing as an "always best strategy".

But it still seems odd to me that most people advise to Steer, when it seems basic common sense to me that you should almost always Collect because, unless you have a monopoly on downstream nodes, forwarding value downstream just gives other nations more chances to steal a cut, and that stolen cut is likely to be a greater loss than the debuff from collecting.

Have I missed something vital?

 

[PhoenixG]

By experience, often collecting does give you more money than steering. But the real problem with trade is always there is too many variables and lots of them are not in your hand to give a good pointer to say when to steer or when to collect besides fiddle it yourself.

 

[Badesumofu]

The only way to be sure for a given situation is to experiment. Over time you get a feel for what is likely to be best in different circumstances based on your understanding of all the mechanics.

The ideal is a long chain where you collect only at the end. In practice it will often be better to collect in most/all nodes.

 

[Markusmiless]

If I choose to forward, I forward 50% of the 10 Ducats to node-B (so 5 Ducats), and then from node-B I forward 50% of that to node-A (so 2.5 Ducats), and then in node-A I collect 50% of the 2.5 Ducats, so 1.25 Ducats. Each forwarding-action also boosts the value by 5%, so factoring this in the value I could collect on in node-A is 1.37 Ducats.

This math is actually slightly off... if we go by the assumption that all the three trade nodes have 10 Ducats worth (for ease of counting) and only go A -> B -> C
Then you'll increase the value in B by 5 ducats, making it worth 15.
You'd redirect 50% of this to C which would be 7.5 which you forward to C which would turn it's worth to 17.5
Now when you collect there before modifiers it'd be 8,75 which would become around 9,62-9,64 ducats because of the forwarding-action boost.

However in the above scenario you still came to the right conclusion about that it'd be better to collect (gaining a total of 13,33 ducats which is about 38% more effective).
It varies however what is the most effective.

 

[xrws31]

This math is actually slightly off... if we go by the assumption that all the three trade nodes have 10 Ducats worth (for ease of counting) and only go A -> B -> C
Then you'll increase the value in B by 5 ducats, making it worth 15.
You'd redirect 50% of this to C which would be 7.5 which you forward to C which would turn it's worth to 17.5
Now when you collect there before modifiers it'd be 8,75 which would become around 9,62-9,64 ducats because of the forwarding-action boost.

However in the above scenario you still came to the right conclusion about that it'd be better to collect (gaining a total of 13,33 ducats which is about 38% more effective).
It varies however what is the most effective.

Hmmm, yes and no.

The movement of the trade-values that originate in nodes B and C are effectively entirely separate systems. They do not impact where the trade value from node A ends up.

All you've done is tripled the amount of trade-value in the system as a whole, and that reduces the proportion that the benefits gained from collecting on A represent for the entire system down from 100% to 33%, because now the value from node-A only accounts for 1/3rd of the value in the system as a whole.

Its like saying "yeah, but I'm getting 100 ducats in tax, so actually the benefit is only 2%". I mean, sure, technically correct, but that has no relevance to what is the most efficient action to take on node-A.

 

[PhoenixG]

This math is actually slightly off... if we go by the assumption that all the three trade nodes have 10 Ducats worth (for ease of counting) and only go A -> B -> C
Then you'll increase the value in B by 5 ducats, making it worth 15.
You'd redirect 50% of this to C which would be 7.5 which you forward to C which would turn it's worth to 17.5
Now when you collect there before modifiers it'd be 8,75 which would become around 9,62-9,64 ducats because of the forwarding-action boost.

However in the above scenario you still came to the right conclusion about that it'd be better to collect (gaining a total of 13,33 ducats which is about 38% more effective).
It varies however what is the most effective.

Actually it will be even more. The increase in B will be more than 5 since you'll get steering bonus. Although I've no idea how the % is calculated.

 

[indika_tates]

Trade is so complicated and it has changed a lot of times how it works that there is no clear answer. Just do the testing.

The thing to test is simple. If you have a good chain of trade (Ivory, Cape, Zanzibar, Aden, Ceylon, Bengal, Moluccas) try to collect in every node then steering to your capital to see the differences. I won't be surprised if collecting on every foreign node grants more earnings than steering you your final node. Also, activate the "subsidy" on every trade company you can.

When you steer trade there is also a value that remains on every node of the chain. It starts to get complicated when you have to take into account factors like trade efficiency, trade income bonus from traditions/ideas (Portugal, Netherlands), trade steering, caravan power, how much TP other nations have on the chain and so on.

I'm going to test it on a Portugal game and see the results.

 

[bly08]

Hi All,

I'm asking if anyone has done the maths on Steering vs Collecting.

I've done alot of searching around on this topic, and while there is alot of advice out there, none of it comes with any hard numbers to back it up; its all just opinions.

Further to that, there is conflicting advice out there. The general advice that people give on forums, youtube, reddit etc is that it is (almost) always better to steer and to only collect in your home-node. And yet, the advice given on the wiki page here is that you should almost always collect.

The wiki's advice makes sense to me. Working through an example:

If there are 3 nodes in a chain

A -> B -> C

And I have my home-node collecting in C. (There are other nodes branching away from A/B/C, but I have no power in them, so I ignore them).

Lets assume that I have 50% trade-power in each node, and I have B Steering to C. Lets also assume that A has 10 ducats of trade-value in it.

Should I send a merchant to Collect in A, or Steer from A to B?

If I collect, I take a 50% trade-power loss in node-A. My understanding is that this is a multiplicative modifier applied to the Trade-Power-Amount, and not to the Trade-Power-Percentage, and not a flat reduction, so my trade-power in A does not go from 50% to 0%, and it does not go from 50% to 25%, instead it actually goes from 50% to 33%.

So if I Collect in A, I will collect 3.33 Ducats (before modifiers).

If I choose to forward, I forward 50% of the 10 Ducats to node-B (so 5 Ducats), and then from node-B I forward 50% of that to node-A (so 2.5 Ducats), and then in node-A I collect 50% of the 2.5 Ducats, so 1.25 Ducats. Each forwarding-action also boosts the value by 5%, so factoring this in the value I could collect on in node-A is 1.37 Ducats.

Therefore, in this basic scenario, Collecting > Steering. Collecting is actually more than twice as efficient as Steering (in this particular scenario).

Now of course, in the actual game, with hundreds of different nations, sending out hundreds of merchants, doing different things upstream/downstream, and with a vast array of different modifiers being applied at various stages, it will obviously be more complicated than that, so there is no such thing as an "always best strategy".

But it still seems odd to me that most people advise to Steer, when it seems basic common sense to me that you should almost always Collect because, unless you have a monopoly on downstream nodes, forwarding value downstream just gives other nations more chances to steal a cut, and that stolen cut is likely to be a greater loss than the debuff from collecting.

Have I missed something vital?

You have the right idea. In general, collect when there's too much leakage along the trade link. The transfer bonus is not as strong as it seems. The steering bonus (capped at 5 merchants) on the other hand is very strong. So if you have a lot of merchants but not necessarily the overwhelming majority of trade power in each node along the chain, find a way to transfer with 5 merchants to get the steering bonus and collect with the rest. Those who recommend steering don't understand how much trade power you actually need in each node to make it more profitable than collecting.

 

[rinehime]

Hi All,

I'm asking if anyone has done the maths on Steering vs Collecting.

I've done alot of searching around on this topic, and while there is alot of advice out there, none of it comes with any hard numbers to back it up; its all just opinions.
...
Have I missed something vital?

Yeah, there's a lot more than 3 nodes, and you're also ignoring the fact that the effective steering power can be greater than your trade power. A single Merchant in a node uses all of the transfering countries trade power to transfer out. Also sometimes you get helped along by other countries with steering. There's also a steering power bonus from Navy tradition, which if you're exploring can be pretty big.

While your idea in general is correct in many cases, in practice you often have to just try moving your merchants around and see what works best.

 

[rachini]

Hello, trade player here.
Steering bonus is 5% for the first merchant then it gets halved up to 5 merchants.
Trade steering adds TRADE VALUE to the amount being carried.
Let's say your main node is C Where u are competing with several nations for the trade and you have 100% of trade power in A and B. So that means: A->B->C.
A starts with 10 ducats, you put a trader to steer from A to B and that trader is the only guy steering there. The value that arrives to B is 1.05x10 = 10.5 ducats.
B has a value of 5. That means the total value of B is 10.5+5= 15.5.
You put a trader to transfer to C which is your main node. This trader will add some value to the trading value being carried. Which is 5%. That means the value being transferred by this single transferring trader from B to C is now 15.5x1.05= 16.275 ducats total.

Now that this value has arrived to C it will be split according to the tradepowers of nation overe there.
Now the real question: should i have transferred from A to B to C ?
The answer is: if you have a high trade power in C then by all means transfer everything to C and collect there. If not the collect in each node AND DO NOT DO YOU ENEMIES A FAVOR AND TRANSFER THEM ALL THE MONEY TO WHERE THEY CAN COLLECT.

An example of this is an mp game with a lubeck that controls all of lubeck provinces and a good english player.
England is using 150 ships to steer trade to EC from lubeck. Lubeck is transfering trade to lubeck node. Lubeck player asks himself: should i keep hoarding the money from baltic, rheinland, saxony, krakow, north sea and novgorod into lubeck so the english player just comes in and takes everything while sitting on his ass? Hell no, i will just collect in all of these nodes instead of steering trade.
Outcome: english player gets less into his pockets. Lubeck player gets more into his pockets.
TLDR: change the missions and test it out ingame, because after all the pc does all the calculations for you. And i you wanted to do it using math, you can. You just need to use the differential and the derivative etc etc. But it is not worth it.

 

[rachini]

Also 1 note, if you have trade ateering bonus of 100% that means the bonus you get is 10% increase in value instead of just 5% sounds good right? Yep, too bad the game DOES NOT LET YOUR MERCHANT TO BE THE FIRST MERCHANT. So your 100% to trade steering gets applied to the 2.5% almost al the times. So you add 5% instead of 10% if you are not the only guy steering with a merchant.

 

[Chuwawa]

So how do you determine exactly what's better? It seems so complicated at times.
Lets say you are GB and
-90% trade power in EC
-You own all colonies in South and North america at ~50% trade power

Do you steer everying to EC?
Do you steer some, and collect in others?

 

[PhoenixG]

So how do you determine exactly what's better? It seems so complicated at times.
Lets say you are GB and
-90% trade power in EC
-You own all colonies in South and North america at ~50% trade power

Do you steer everying to EC?
Do you steer some, and collect in others?

In this case there is another thing that comes around and that is tarrifs. The amount of tarrifs you get is dependent on the income of you CN, is it will always be better to steer it through the whole america before gathering in EC.

 

[rachini]

So how do you determine exactly what's better? It seems so complicated at times.
Lets say you are GB and
-90% trade power in EC
-You own all colonies in South and North america at ~50% trade power

Do you steer everying to EC?
Do you steer some, and collect in others?

The paramount thing to consider is how much TP you got in EC. And since you have 90% of TP there then by all means you steer trade into EC.

Now on the other hand, let's say you wanted to collect in americas where you have colonial nations too. Your trade power in EC will go down since you will lose the +10% TP per trader since you are collecting in a node that is diffrent than your main trade city. But since you already control the majority of trade there you will get like 80% instead of 90%.

Also, your trade power in the NW will be less. You will get a -75% to the TP that is coming from ships and -75% to TP that you get from TP propagation which is 20% of your provincial TP. Which leaves you with only a 5% modifier for your trade propagation bonus.

Taking all that into perspective doing that will net you less money.
EDIT1:so you are better steering to EC and collecting there

As for tarrifs, it is rarely worth it to have your colonial nation keep the income instead of you just directly taking it. Also remembee that tarrif efficiency will always be lowe than TE ( trade efficiency).

EDIT1: TLDR: change the mission of your traders and check how your income is doing to determine what's better.

 

[rachini]

.....A single Merchant in a node uses all of the transfering countries trade power to transfer out.

This only applies if there is only 1 merchant steering trade in a multi exits node. That single merchant stops Trade value from being split equaly into the diffrent exits and all the trade will flow in the direction that this merchant is steering to.

EDIT1: I understood what you said diffrently sorry. Basicly i just repeated what you posted.cheers

 

[rinehime]

As for tarrifs, it is rarely worth it to have your colonial nation keep the income instead of you just directly taking it. Also remembee that tarrif efficiency will always be lowe than TE ( trade efficiency).

Tariffs also create ducats ex nihilio as the CN gets to keep half of the tariff.

This only applies if there is only 1 merchant steering trade in a multi exits node. That single merchant stops Trade value from being split equaly into the diffrent exits and all the trade will flow in the direction that this merchant is steering to.

EDIT1: I understood what you said diffrently sorry. Basicly i just repeated what you posted.cheers

Yes, that what I said .

The math has been done many times over. My point was that it's never that simple and you have to consider the actions of all the other countries as well. Your "effective" TP transferring/steering is often greater than your actual TP. If that moves trade to a node where you have more power downstream, then all the better. Most of the time, you just have to try a couple of different things to see what works best.

 

[Chuwawa]

I thought tarrif's were only using tax income, not total income?

 

[PhoenixG]

I thought tarrif's were only using tax income, not total income?

Total income excluding gold