Prima Facie
The state of Europe as of February 1, 1943
Eastern Front
Although the Wehrmacht had suffered a defeat with the failure of Fall Blau, German armed forces were still deep in the Soviet Union and it seemed to most that the war these was still Germany's to loose. Nevertheless, the Red Army's success with Operations Uranus and Little Saturn had recovered the majority of the territory that the Wehrmacht had taken during Blau resulting in the encirclement of not only Field Marshall Paulus, the 6th Army and the 4th Panzer Army at Stalingrad, but also three separate pockets of Axis armies around Voronezh. Although Paulus' army at Stalingrad was a lost hope, hundreds of kilometers behind enemy lines and with the vast majority of his army incapacitated, breaking the encirclements around Voronezh will become a strategic goal in the coming weeks. In addition, Leningrad was still surrounded by Heeresgruppe Nord, though attempts to break the encircled defenders have failed, and the Wehrmacht was still not far from Moscow.
Generalfeildmarshall von Mainstein: Commander of the Eastern Front
Due to Hitler's favorable impression of his command in Fall Blau, Erich von Manstein was relieved by Guderian as the commander of Heeresgruppe Don and promoted to the commander of Oberkommando der Heer where he would help direct the war from Hitler's Wolfsschanze. There, Oberkommand0 decided that any planning for an offensive in the spring would have to wait in order to focus on defending against expected Soviet attacks around the Donets River and to plan an immediate relief effort of the surrounded divisions around Voronezh. Once the situation that the Wehrmacht will be facing in the spring and summer is known, then shall plans for an offensive shall be created, but until then fighting off Operation Little Saturn is Oberkommand's primary objective in the East.
Afrikakorps
Ever since the defeat at El Alamein situation in North Africa has gone from bad to worse and is now believed to be unsalvageable by Oberkommando. Rommel's Afrikakorps is now fighting for survival in Tunisia with an enemy having the advantage in both manpower and supplies advancing from both Algeria and Libya. Since there are valuable armored divisions in Tunis that could be reallocated to the Eastern Front it has been decided to evacuate as much of Afrikakorps as possible by air to Italy. Rommel has been given one last order as commander of the Axis in North Africa: hold the line for as long as possible while retreating panzer units to Tunis for evacuation. Hopefully this will be an order from the Führer that the Desert Fox will obey.
The last of Rommel's Afrikaners in Tunisia
North Atlantic
Another important area of operations is the North Atlantic. The U-Boat campaign against the UK has so far been rather successful in its unconventional war against British shipping. This war is based off of Döntiz's concept of a “Tonnage War”: the idea that the Allies have a limited quantity of convoys and a limited capability of replacing sunk ships, so to defeat the Allies' capability to supply the British isles, the U-Boats must sink a higher quantity of tonnage than they can build. As of now, Dönitz has twenty-three U-Boat flotillas, of those six are the state-of-the-art Type VIIA Class, and a squadron of naval bombers with which to wage his tonnage war with hree more modern U-Boat flotillas being built for this important effort.
Dönitz and his flotilla of Type VIIA U-Boats
Economics and Logistics
Though the tactical situation of the German Wehrmacht is, without a doubt, of great importance, an evaluation of the German war effort cannot fully capture the situation without an analysis of the logistics of the situation.
Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.
Among the most important economic concerns are the strategic advantages given by the DiDay's Mod for the control of certain regions, and Germany enjoys four different strategic benefits:
These will go a long way in assisting the war effort.
As far as resources are concerned, Germany has plenty of sources of energy, metal and rare materials to be able survive on them, as of now, but the lack of a large source oil may very well become a potential Achilles' heel of the mechanized Wehrmacht since stockpiles are being consumed. While the Ploiesti oilfields will greatly aid the ability of the Axis to fuel their armies, they cannot be expected to be enough to sustain all of the oil-hungry divisions. Therefore, throughout the winter months, the newly created Benzinausschuss, a committee created by the German government in response to this need for petrol, will attempt to estimate how much longer the stockpiles can last. It would not be surprising if the post-1943 strategic goals were to be dominated by the concerns of both fuel-conservation and conquering new sources oil. Otherwise the mighty Wehrmacht may very well be defeated by simple logistics rather than the Bolshevik scourge.
The amount of manpower at the Wehrmacht's disposal must also be watched. With the failure of both Barbarossa and Blau, Germany had failed to bring a quick end to the war so it is almost certain that this war will take more than one offensive to end. Ergo, it is expected that battlefield casualties will tax the pool of manpower available so attention must be given to ensuring that the supply of able-bodied men is kept well-stocked for the German war-machine.
Government
The reality of the failure of Fall Blau, especially the loss at Stalingrad, has resulted in a reshuffling of the German government. Among the new appointees were Albert Speer, who will lead Germany's new commitment to total war, Joseph Goebbels, who will serve as minister of security in order to ensure that all of Germany stands behind the war effort, von Manstein, who will also serve as Hitler's chief of staff while at the Wolfsschanze in addition to his normal command-duties, and Karl Dönitz, who was appointed head of the Kriegsmarine so that all of Germany's naval resources may be devoted to the U-Boat campaign in the Atlantic.
At first sight, the German nation is a capable war-machine that has suffered set-backs, but has yet to be wounded in a serious-enough fashion to destroy its fighting capabilities. The question now becomes will the Reich be able to make 1943 the year that the Axis secured their eventual victory?