Topsy-turvy world of industrialization apparently more turvy than topsy

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Personally, I am not yet convinced there's anything very broken here. I find in the early game that first-level manufactured goods (glass, lumber, fabric, steel) are sufficiently profitable. By mid-century, second-level manufactured goods (clothing, furniture, wine) are also netting me a good profit, too, especially when connected with infrastructure improvements. Steel continues to be profitable throughout, just not at the insane levels of 1.03c.

Machine parts never make a profit, to be sure, but that was by design to keep machine parts from flooding too early onto the WM, allowing for overheated industrialization, total colonization of Africa by 1860, etc.

Kreig;

You and me side-by-side on this one bro. I also don't see anything broke at all. You just have to look carefully at the market and base decisions on the market, not the last game's experiences.

I think it's wonderful that now sometimes glass is pricey and othertime fabric is. Isn't it nice to know that your deicisons and that of the AI actually have an impact upon the game?

 

[Kriegsspieler]

Do you think though that in the real world, the pathway to profitability was producing liquor rather than steel?

Certainly not -- you're right there. But getting the game to mimic that condition accurately, given everything else that has to be controlled, such as colonization, is the hard part of this balancing act. Remember, a lot of the effort in producing the new patch went into toning down the mad colonization rush. That wasn't very realistic, either.

It's one of those situations where you have a very squishy pillow, and wherever you push down on it, it expands elsewhere. But I am convinced that this patch got the pillow more approximately smoothed out. But there are still a few lumps.

Kreig;

You and me side-by-side on this one bro. I also don't see anything broke at all. You just have to look carefully at the market and base decisions on the market, not the last game's experiences.

I think it's wonderful that now sometimes glass is pricey and othertime fabric is. Isn't it nice to know that your deicisons and that of the AI actually have an impact upon the game?

This is true. I find glass and lumber to be quite variable early in the game, for reasons that are not entirely transparent to my trade minister! :

 

[JScott991]

The colony rush doesn't concern me as much as the economic quirks that stopping it has produced. I'd rather have steel be the foundation of a modern economy and have Africa owned by Britain and France in 1860 than have Africa be uncolonized in 1880 and liquor being the foundation of a modern economy.

The patch team has different priorities (the obsession with making minors playable, creating challenging game difficulty and renaming units), obviously and I'm not going to interject my opinions on that at this late stage.

Suffice it to say that the player can fix the economy on his own. I didn't realize the extent of the damage done by 1.04.

 

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Do you think though that in the real world, the pathway to profitability was producing liquor rather than steel?

Yes.

I have little doubt that through history more money has been made on 'beverage' than any other commodity. I look at the S&P 500 and note how many beverage companies are in it compared to steel companies.

As a modern note, I recently read that the average American adult male spends about $2000/year on alcoholic beverages of all sorts. This passes my common sense test as it is only $50/weekend. I don't know any of my blue collar friends who spend so little. They more than make up for me, who spends more like $1000/year.

If you consider that the primary steel expense of an American is their car which is now under 15% by value steel, and a car costs $25,000 leveraged over 5 years ignoring time value of money you get $750/year for steel.

I'm not suggesting that armies can be built and win without steel. I am suggesting that people though covet beverage over steel and long term that has been proven in every civilization from the Babalonians on. It may not say much about human society, but every ruler has paid careful attention to this. Even the Caesar's knew better than to ignore it. And when you do ignore it, you get Capone's and Kennedy's.

Does this mean all you build is distilleries? Heck NO! If you do, the price falls and your profits. Moderation and balance. But if ENG builds 50 steel factories, then as BRA I stay away from them. Let them lose money on them and I will by their steel subsidized by their economy to build my ships to sink their navy.

In other words, what I am seeing now in v1.4 is an actualy live economy. It was there somewhat in v1.03. It is there much better now.

 

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The colony rush doesn't concern me as much as the economic quirks that stopping it has produced. I'd rather have steel be the foundation of a modern economy and have Africa owned by Britain and France in 1860 than have Africa be uncolonized in 1880 and liquor being the foundation of a modern economy.

The patch team has different priorities, obviously and I'm not going to interject my opinions on that at this late stage.

Suffice it to say that the player can fix the economy on his own. I didn't realize the extent of the damage done by 1.04.

Again, you're assuming that YOU have to build steel. That simply is not true. You need to have access to steel and you have to have something of value to trade for it.

EX: Saudi Arabia. Would you care to quibble over their economic might or success? Of course not, and they have not a single steel works in the kingdom that I know of. Yet they are a powerhouse. WHy? They have something better that they can trade for all the steel they need.

The people who make money on a good or service are those who are "first to market". This is a fundamental economic theory. ENG makes money on steel as they get it before anyone else. If I'm playing BRA I can't chase steel factories. IRL or in the game it is economic suicide to do so. I have to get something to trade for them AND keep my policitcal avenues working hard to make sure that I can access those markets. The only time I build my own is "national security" issues where I'm afraid I might lose my ability to trade for it [badboy?].

This is the essence of world economic trade theory in both RL and the game.

 

[OHgamer]

Do you think though that in the real world, the pathway to profitability was producing liquor rather than steel?

If the demand for liquor vs supply for liquor is greater than the demand-supply for steel (and given that liquor is both a POP demand and a need for military units, while steel is not) then it would make sense in this economic model for liquor to have profitability potentials that could rival steel, even when the base price for liquor is less than that for steel (as it currently is).

 

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OH;

BTW, I'm not suggesting here either that nothing needs further balance. As you are well aware, even a slight change in POP demand has a HUGE impact upon the price in the market. So for example: MAYBE paper for for Clerks needs to be tweeked up a bit from 0.5 -> 0.6. But this type of tweek is a small issue to me. Fundamentallly I think what your Vicky team has done is great. The fixes here now are really good.

 

[JScott991]

I'm not going to debate historical economic development. Suffice it to say that all of the Great Powers of the 19th and early 20th century followed the same route to economic development and it involved the development of certain key industries, the most important of which was steel.

When the Russian Empire under Witte wanted to catch up to Britain and Germany, they didn't expand their vodka production. When France experienced their own economic take-off under the late Orleanist period and the Second Empire, it wasn't because they were establishing and modernizing their wineries. Germany didn't become Europe's primary economic and industrial power through their cattle herding. And so forth . . .

Victoria's economy might work better now in terms of supply and demand, but its not functioning properly in my opinion if the path to prosperity isn't paved in indigenous steel production.

 

[OHgamer]

I'm not going to debate historical economic development. Suffice it to say that all of the Great Powers of the 19th and early 20th century followed the same route to economic development and it involved the development of certain key industries, the most important of which was steel.

When the Russian Empire under Witte wanted to catch up to Britain and Germany, they didn't expand their vodka production. When France experienced their own economic take-off under the late Orleanist period and the Second Empire, it wasn't because they were establishing and modernizing their wineries. Germany didn't become Europe's primary economic and industrial power through their cattle herding. And so forth . . .

Victoria's economy might work better now in terms of supply and demand, but its not functioning properly in my opinion if the path to prosperity isn't paved in indigenous steel production.

The solution that would achieve that goal I think would therefore be to increase further the amount of steel needed as an input in other goods so that demand for steel (and products that require steel as an input) rises further than it already does. This of course would require further rebalancing up the scale, so that the upper-tier goods do not remain caught in a demand-supply scissor themselves because the higer demand for steel results in a steel market price that is more than what the market price for the upper-tier goods is, otherwise those upper tier goods will not be profitable.

And at some point, you have to be careful not to raise the price of industrial goods so high in the model that they will no longer be affordable to players of mid-level nations who, while trying to industrialize their nations, find themselves priced out of the supply of the goods necessary to initiate such industrialization.

 

[JScott991]

Few mid-level nations industrialized during this period.

I'll have to fix all the economic files. This thread has been very informative in fleshing out the goals of the 1.04 patch (nay to colonization, yay to playing minors) and where the problems presented by it lie.

 

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I'm not going to debate historical economic development. Suffice it to say that all of the Great Powers of the 19th and early 20th century followed the same route to economic development and it involved the development of certain key industries, the most important of which was steel.

When the Russian Empire under Witte wanted to catch up to Britain and Germany, they didn't expand their vodka production. When France experienced their own economic take-off under the late Orleanist period and the Second Empire, it wasn't because they were establishing and modernizing their wineries. Germany didn't become Europe's primary economic and industrial power through their cattle herding. And so forth . . .

Victoria's economy might work better now in terms of supply and demand, but its not functioning properly in my opinion if the path to prosperity isn't paved in indigenous steel production.

I think we're diverging here. The point is that Russia did not ONLY build steel mills. Do you want to build steel? Sure. Exclusively. No. You have no historical reference to support a statement that building steel is the only factory to build. Every country that built steel also built lots of other factories. Further, the fact it was done [build steel mills] historically does not mean that they made money on it. Prrof there is looking at what happenen in the late portion of this era.

In Russia's case, it was tied to a huge increase in domestic consumption that was using domestic raw materials. Perfect fit. To extrapolate that to every country in every situation is where you have problems. Using BRA again as the exemplar: little iron and no coal. Why build steel? Only to guarantee a source against political turmoil and embargo. But 99% you want to buy on the open market cheaper.

 

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The solution that would achieve that goal I think would therefore be to increase further the amount of steel needed as an input in other goods so that demand for steel (and products that require steel as an input) rises further than it already does. This of course would require further rebalancing up the scale, so that the upper-tier goods do not remain caught in a demand-supply scissor themselves because the higer demand for steel results in a steel market price that is more than what the market price for the upper-tier goods is, otherwise those upper tier goods will not be profitable.

And at some point, you have to be careful not to raise the price of industrial goods so high in the model that they will no longer be affordable to players of mid-level nations who, while trying to industrialize their nations, find themselves priced out of the supply of the goods necessary to initiate such industrialization.

True, but raising the demand of steel will also raise the demand of Iron, and those mid-level nations that produce quantities of iron will therefore benefit. Especially if they expand the RGOs.

Also Industrializing for these nations should not be easy...it is a fine balancing act.

IMHO, you have it about right now. Only tweaking should be necessary from here on in.

 

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Add Steel to POP Needs.

The solution that would achieve that goal I think would therefore be to increase further the amount of steel needed as an input in other goods so that demand for steel (and products that require steel as an input) rises further than it already does. This of course would require further rebalancing up the scale, so that the upper-tier goods do not remain caught in a demand-supply scissor themselves because the higer demand for steel results in a steel market price that is more than what the market price for the upper-tier goods is, otherwise those upper tier goods will not be profitable.

And at some point, you have to be careful not to raise the price of industrial goods so high in the model that they will no longer be affordable to players of mid-level nations who, while trying to industrialize their nations, find themselves priced out of the supply of the goods necessary to initiate such industrialization.

Or as I mentioned, a slight tweek to some of the POP demands that require steel.

An idea is in the production of goods in factories. A lot of factories IRL require continuous re-tooling requiring steel. You could for example add 0.01 steel as one of the required inputs along with the current coal for a glass factory. This would increase steel demand.

A lot of ways to stimulate demand in any particular item. As you say though, the balancing is tough and small changes have HUGE ripple effects.

In this one [as with many others], we would like the demand for it to increase as the world pop increases. This will keep a steady pressure on the requirement for new or high efficiency steel factories to come on line. Maybe a current issue with steel is that it isn't currently connected with any of the major POP life or everyday needs. So if we insinuate it into one or more of the needs factory inputs, we effectively add it to the POP's needs.

An elegant potential solution?

 

[Kriegsspieler]

Or as I mentioned, a slight tweek to some of the POP demands that require steel.

An idea is in the production of goods in factories. A lot of factories IRL require continuous re-tooling requiring steel. You could for example add 0.01 steel as one of the required inputs along with the current coal for a glass factory. This would increase steel demand.

A lot of ways to stimulate demand in any particular item. As you say though, the balancing is tough and small changes have HUGE ripple effects.

In this one [as with many others], we would like the demand for it to increase as the world pop increases. This will keep a steady pressure on the requirement for new or high efficiency steel factories to come on line. Maybe a current issue with steel is that it isn't currently connected with any of the major POP life or everyday needs. So if we insinuate it into one or more of the needs factory inputs, we effectively add it to the POP's needs.

An elegant potential solution?

How about adding steel to the cost of all factory upgrades? Right now, I think that only coal and iron are in the costs, but obviously steel should supplement or supersede them.

 

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How about adding steel to the cost of all factory upgrades? Right now, I think that only coal and iron are in the costs, but obviously steel should supplement or supersede them.

Another way to do it. Lot's of ways.
EDIT: Or maybe, replace coal/iron with steel on upgrades period. That would force some 'progression' into increased capacity.

 

[unmerged(36774)]

How about adding steel to the cost of all factory upgrades? Right now, I think that only coal and iron are in the costs, but obviously steel should supplement or supersede them.

I am afraid this would prevent countries who are not producing steel from building or upgrading their factories at all. At least in early game before producing numbers of steel are much higher. At least in mp games it would be really difficult to get any steel from wm then.

 

[Kriegsspieler]

I am afraid this would prevent countries who are not producing steel from building or upgrading their factories at all. At least in early game before producing numbers of steel are much higher. At least in mp games it would be really difficult to get any steel from wm then.

That might be true, but if the incentives to sell steel went up in this way, presumably the price would, too. As always, one has to put it in and see what the effect would be. And one could always play around with the amount of steel needed for the upgrade.

 

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And remember this is only for UPGRADES. By the time most coutnries are ready for upgrades, it is middle game and steel is rather plentiful. This is only to stimulate demand for it.

 

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Applying it only to upgrades would need a change in exe, if I understand it correctly. I doubt Paradox is very likely to change it.

 

[OHgamer]

Applying it only to upgrades would need a change in exe, if I understand it correctly. I doubt Paradox is very likely to change it.

Upgrading factories IIRC only is based on the cost of the inputs of the base factory. So if you add steel to require constuction of some factories (and steel factories should not be one, nor really some of the other basics, but some of the later electric-based ones perhaps) it will just become a requirement.

Changes would need to be made to the file db\economy\factory-input.txt